MLB Best Bets Today July 29

A scheduled twin bill for the birds gives us our only day game today, as the Blue Jays and Orioles will play a split doubleheader beginning at 12:35. Otherwise, the other 15 games today are all at night and there were some very long nights for teams last night due to rain delays.

The Trade Deadline is still looming on Thursday, though we’ve already had a few deals come together in advance of that big day, so teams and players are on pins and needles in some cases wondering what will happen. That can definitely have an impact on handicapping the card, so keep those situations and all of the other usual things in mind.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for July 29:

Colorado Rockies at Cleveland Guardians (-218, 8.5)

6:40 p.m. ET

Yesterday felt like the end of the season for the Guardians. Emmanuel Clase was placed on the restricted list after being tied into the Luis Ortiz sports betting scandal and then the Guardians went out and lost in depressing fashion to the Rockies, blowing a ninth-inning lead with stand-in closer Cade Smith.

The vibes are not immaculate around the team. The broadcast even mentioned how team leader and best player Jose Ramirez was not happy in the clubhouse prior to the game. It’s bad right now and Thursday’s Trade Deadline may make things worse, as more fuel is being added to the fire of potentially trading Steven Kwan.

The Rockies already traded away Ryan McMahon and don’t have many other pieces left to give up, but their young guys are stepping up a bit here. Even with the curve that the team is graded on with Coors Field, they have a 104 wRC+ in the second half thus far with a .338 wOBA. Cleveland has actually been good offensively, but I’m not sure how long that lasts.

Hell, they did score six runs yesterday, but were blanked over six shutout innings by Bradley Blalock, who is objectively worse than today’s starter Tanner Gordon. Gordon had a 5.25 ERA with a 4.91 FIP in Triple-A, but that’s a tough place to pitch with all the good hitter’s parks in the PCL. He has a 3.13 ERA with a 4.01 xERA and a 3.87 FIP in 23 innings at the MLB level. Gordon actually had a 16/0 K/BB ratio in his final two Triple-A starts before this most recent recall.

Logan Allen has a 4.16 ERA with a 4.44 xERA and a 4.33 FIP in 101.2 innings of work. He’s a pitch to contact guy and the Guardians are not very good defensively right now with Brayan Rocchio at 2B and Gabriel Arias at SS. We’ll probably see Kyle Manzardo at DH, but if he does play 1B, he’s awful over there.

The Rockies at +1.5 and -115 makes sense to me. Hunter Gaddis looked iffy yesterday. Cade Smith blew the save. Tim Herrin gave up some insurance runs. The bullpen is in shambles and the offense is still anemic.

Pick: Rockies +1.5 (-115)

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees (-199, 8.5)

7:05 p.m. ET

We’ll get Joe Boyle on the bump for the Rays as it looks like he’ll get some runway as a starter moving forward. The Yankees will counter with the slumping Max Fried, but this should be a good opportunity for the veteran southpaw to get back on track.

So, let’s start with Fried, who faces a Rays lineup that is 29th in wOBA against LHP over the last 30 days with a 23% K% and a 6.4% BB%. Fried’s had a couple of low SwStr% starts against the Blue Jays recently, but he only has two other starts under 10% since May 24, with those coming in at 9.5% and 9.9%. 

In four July starts, Fried has faced the Blue Jays, Mets, Cubs, and Blue Jays again, posting a 6.52 ERA with a 4.74 FIP. Well, this obviously represents a huge step down in class against the Rays compared to those other lineups. Also, Fried has a 49.6% LOB% in those four starts and has only allowed an average exit velo of 85.4 mph and a Hard Hit% of 32.4% with a 5.9% Barrel%. So, he’s gotten very, very unlucky from a sequencing and batted ball standpoint.

Boyle draws a Yankees lineup sans Aaron Judge, so that helps. In 19 MLB innings thus far, Boyle had allowed three earned runs on just six hits with 18 strikeouts against six walks. Four of those five appearances have come in July. In 14 starts and one relief outing in the minors, Boyle has a 1.85 ERA over 73 innings with a 96/31 K/BB ratio. It looks as though the Rays have found yet another terrific arm with a ton of upside, as they acquired him in the Jeffrey Springs deal with the A’s.

While it will be warm in Yankee Stadium, Fried has a GB% over 51% and has only allowed nine homers, including just two in his last six starts. Boyle should generate a lot of swings and misses for as long he’s out there.

Two primary setup guys out of the Yankees pen have worked three of the last four days, so I’ll stick with the 1st 5 Under 4.5 at -115. That and Boyle may not be fully stretched out as a MLB starter given his recent appearances.

Also, with the Yankees’ recent bullpen struggles, I think Rays +1.5 at -125 is a good look, as it does provide some protection if Fried does shine.

Pick: Rays +1.5 (-125); Rays/Yankees 1st 5 Under 4.5 (-115)