MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update:
We head into the MLB All-Star break on a roll with the bullpen systems, as this week’s update is chock-full of highlights. Still, the best news is that even after a week that went fairly well, in the 2025 season, our best returns came post-ASB, so hopefully we have a ton of profits to look forward to over the next 2-1/2 months.
In addition to this week’s updated system records and highlights from the last seven days, I will also share my best and worst current starting pitcher ratings lists. I have received some inquiries about where those numbers come from and how the starting pitchers are qualified across the various correlation systems. I will also provide more on last week’s introduction of how my score simulation projections have fared so far in 2026, as I received several questions about that. Enjoy the update.
As I indicated above, it was a solid week for the bullpen systems overall, as even the EASIEST angle, which has struggled somewhat in 2026, brought back +8.08 units over the last seven days. That is some good momentum heading into the break, and as I like to say, typically, when that does well, most or all of the other angles follow suit. To which. I have seven big highlights from last week to share:
Correlation System #4, the one about fading the combination of bad bullpen/bad starting pitcher, did exactly what is was supposed to do…as the teams that met the criteria lost -3.81 units last week.
The IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, one of my favorites since it suggests backing teams with better pitching (starter & bullpen) even though they have an equal or lesser record, produced big last week, going 10-6 for +3.76 units. This is often an underdog or small favorite backing angle.
Teams egregiously priced at -190 or higher but not winning >=19% more of their games than opponents continued to struggle, losing -6.69 units last week alone, and they are now down over 17 units on the season, a ROI of -22%.
Our newest angle this season, backing small favorites of -111 to -126 when they have better SM Bullpen Ratings, continues to boom, as these teams went 14-5 this past week for +7.9 units. This system is now up over +40 units for the year.
Three different streak angles continued their expected tendencies
1) worse bullpens falling into lengthy losing skids -6.63 units
2) better bullpens extending winning streak +9.91 units added last week
3) better bullpens thwarting losing skids – brought back +3.19 units.
It’s great to have some momentum heading into the break, and I am anticipating a solid second half of the season.
Some of you have asked in recent weeks about my starting pitcher ratings and being able to easily tell which team’s starters qualify for certain bullpen systems tagging “elite” pitchers. Well, below is a list of pitchers that will go into their first start out of the break with a SM rating above 25:
JACOB MISIOROWSKI (MILWAUKEE): 72
CHRIS SALE (ATLANTA): 61
ZACK WHEELER (PHILADELPHIA): 61
CAM SCHLITTLER (NY YANKEES): 59
PAUL SKENES (PITTSBURGH): 56
TARIK SKUBAL (DETROIT): 55
CHRISTOPHER SANCHEZ (PHILADELPHIA): 55
YOSHINOBU YAMAMOTO (LA DODGERS): 52
SHOHEI OHTANI (LA DODGERS): 46
JACOB DEGROM (TEXAS): 45
DYLAN CEASE (TORONTO): 45
HUNTER BROWN (HOUSTON): 43
SONNY GRAY (BOSTON): 42
CHASE BURNS (CINCINNATI): 40
JOE RYAN (MINNESOTA): 36
HUNTER GREENE (CINCINNATI): 35
KYLE HARRISON (MILWAUKEE): 32
DREW RASMUSSEN (TAMPA BAY): 32
LOGAN WEBB (SAN FRANCISCO): 31
LOGAN GILBERT (SEATTLE): 31
GERRIT COLE (NY YANKEES): 30
BRAXTON AHSCRAFT (PITTSBURGH): 29
PARKER MESSICK (CLEVELAND): 28
RANGER SUAREZ (BOSTON): 26
TROY MELTON (DETROIT): 26
JESUS LUZARDO (PHILADELPHIA): 26
FOSTER GRIFFIN (WASHINGTON): 26
Alternatively, here are the starting pitchers who will go into their next start with ratings of -10 or worse:
5.1 JEFFREY SPRINGS (ATHLETICS): -10
4.8 TYLER PHILLIPS (MIAMI): -10
4.9 WALKER BUEHLER (SAN DIEGO): -10
5.3 JACK LEITER (TEXAS): -10
4.5 DAVID PETERSON (CHICAGO CUBS): -11
5.4 ROSI SASAKI (LA DODGERS): -11
4.5 ROBERT GASSER (MILWAUKEE): -11
5.5 MITCH KELLER (PITTSBURGH): -11
5.2 TYLER MAHLE (SAN FRANCISCO): -12
4.9 BRADY SINGER (CINCINNATI): -13
4.6 PATRICK CORBIN (TORONTO): -13
5.1 ZAC GALLEN (ARIZONA): -16
5.6 MIKE BURROWS (HOUSTON): -18
4.8 MATTHEW LIBERATORE (ST LOUIS): -18
4.9 JAKE IRVIN (WASHINGTON): -18
4.6 ZACK LITTELL (WASHINGTON): -19
4.9 MICHAEL LORENZEN (COLORADO): -22
4 SEAN SULLIVAN (COLORADO): -22
4.4 GRIFFIN CANNING (SAN DIEGO): -22
4.8 ADRIAN HOUSER (SAN FRANCISCO): -23
4.2 KODAI SENGA (NY METS): -24
4.8 AARON CIVALE (ATHLETICS): -26
4.8 KYLE FREELAND (COLORADO): -28
4.7 JACK KOCHANOWICZ (LA ANGELS): -32
4.7 MILES MIKOLAS (WASHINGTON): -32
4.6 ANDREW PAINTER (PHILADELPHIA): -35
You can use these numbers combined with the bullpen ratings below to preplan for any system plays you’d like to make in this first upcoming weekend out of the break.
Now, getting back to the subject I introduced last week regarding how my simulation score projections do. After a great discovery last week regarding games which had a 10 cent or more edge from my expected line to the actual line, I have decided to do a completely separate article on the subject, as I believe it is a very important subject matter. I am always of the belief that using a multi-pronged approach for a daily sport like baseball is the best way to profit. No single strategy tends to win consistently. This is the essence of why my son AJ and I produce them daily Analytics Reports for VSiN readers. They cover a gamut of different strategies for betting MLB each day. That separate piece will detail how the simulation projected scores can benefit bettors, with detailed results from the first half of the season. Look for that on Tuesday, and it should be something you consider when we move into the season’s second half on Thursday.
Without further ado, here are the various system records through the first half of the 2026 season that we will be tracking every day throughout. Note that on occasion I will add or delete systems based upon my own logic or regression analysis:
The EASIEST way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 regular season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 went 1138-1004 for +0.15 units and a ROI of 0%. For 2026, this easy system is off to a slower start this season, 632-591 in all for -88.29 units, and an ROI of -7.2%. It did get back eight units in the week before the AS break.
This percentage ROI loss still outperforms the average bettor loss for playing every game. We are winning 51.7% of our games but betting almost every game is a tough strategy regardless. It’s usually the case that easiest isn’t always best, although the nearly dead-even returns on 2,142 games last year validate why I believe bullpens are so fundamental to baseball handicapping. That said, I still prefer discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for bigger edges, and at this point I can’t honestly advise playing every game on the easiest system. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. THIS is where you should start your handicapping routine each day.
These next angles were new to the bullpen analysis around mid-season 2025. I named them CORRELATION systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the early 2026 season records of these four angles we are now regularly tracking and will continue to do so into the year:
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 40-29 for +1.79 units.
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 55-90 for -39.3 units and a ROI of -27.1%! Fading these teams continues to produce.
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the ’25 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For ’26, these teams are off to a slow 177-144 start for -32.14 units and an ROI of -10%. I might suggest leaving this one off your radar until it starts turning back around.
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 106-138 for -0.07 units. After losing about 10 units over the last month, this angle has finally gone into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and a ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are teetering around the profitability line at 154-122 for -2.97 units and an ROI of -1.1%.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 48-29 for -17.02 units, ROI -22.1%, as it is now acting like its usual self.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 34-20 but for -15.6 units so far.
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle has been a lucrative FADE system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 24-16 start for -11.84 units, and an ROI of -29.6%.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 192-247 for -34.18 units. This ROI of -7.8% is much less than what we’ve come to expect.
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For ’26 so far, these teams are 162-102 for +40.58 units, an ROI of +15.4%. We are currently tracking these on the VSiN Analytics Reports daily, and it has added over +10 units since we have.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-‘25 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 128-154 start for -18.92 units (ROI -6.7%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 52-70 for -17.51 units and a solid ROI of -14.4%.
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 95-102 for +6.67 units. However, it did lose -6.63 units last week.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in 2025, and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units (ROI 5.2%). It will be on the 2026 Bullpen System Reports once again and is off to a disappointing start of 113-96 for -18.01 units. This is an ROI of -8.6%, but it did get back 9.91 units prior to the break.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 74-79 for -23.61 units. This angle also gained some momentum heading into the break, however.
Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
These are the current key bullpen stats that have accumulated in the 2026 regular season, followed by my current 2026 Bullpen Power Ratings adjusted by me this week for performance. Along with that, I’ve listed the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams from last week to this.
Key Bullpen Stats (2026 regular season stats through games of Sunday 7/12)
Top 6 Bullpen ERAs
1. NY YANKEES: 3.07
2. ATLANTA: 3.09
3. BOSTON: 3.24
4. SEATTLE: 3.56
5. MILWAUKEE: 3.6
6. SAN DIEGO: 3.68
Worst 6 Bullpen ERAs
30. KANSAS CITY: 5.33
29. MINNESOTA: 5.19
28. ATHLETICS: 5.18
27. WASHINGTON: 5.03
26. COLORADO: 4.94
25. CINCINNATI: 4.7
Top 6 Bullpen WHIPs
1. ATLANTA: 1.12
2. NY YANKEES: 1.18
3. BOSTON: 1.19
4. MIAMI: 1.19
5. ARIZONA: 1.2
6. TAMPA BAY: 1.23
Worst 6 Bullpen WHIPs
30. KANSAS CITY: 1.57
29. MINNESOTA: 1.53
28. COLORADO: 1.48
27. CINCINNATI: 1.48
26. WASHINGTON: 1.47
25. ATHLETICS: 1.45
Top 6 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. PHILADELPHIA: 10.04
2. CLEVELAND: 10.03
3. LA DODGERS: 9.57
4. LA ANGELS: 9.53
5. PITTSBURGH: 9.37
6. MIAMI: 9.3
Worst 6 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. WASHINGTON: 7.38
29. TEXAS: 7.76
28. KANSAS CITY: 7.79
27. SAN FRANCISCO: 7.82
26. ST LOUIS: 7.85
25. ARIZONA: 7.85
Top 6 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. ARIZONA: 0.7
2. BOSTON: 0.78
3. BALTIMORE: 0.84
4. NY YANKEES: 0.93
5. SAN DIEGO: 0.94
6. DETROIT: 0.94
Worst 6 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. NY METS: 2.1
29. PHILADELPHIA: 1.87
28. WASHINGTON: 1.66
27. ATHLETICS: 1.65
26. KANSAS CITY: 1.63
25. PITTSBURGH: 1.59
I have used a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since last week Monday (7/6):
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. ARIZONA: +10 points
1. BOSTON: +10
3. MINNESOTA: +8
4. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: +6
4. TAMPA BAY: +6
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. LA DODGERS: -6 points
1. TEXAS: -6
1. NY METS: -6
4. CHICAGO CUBS: -5
4. KANSAS CITY: -5
4. PITTSBURGH: -5
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 7/13)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. ATLANTA: 27
2. BOSTON: 24
3. LA DODGERS: 22
4. NY YANKEES: 22
5. TAMPA BAY: 21
6. MILWAUKEE: 19
7. ARIZONA: 17
8. SAN DIEGO: 16
9. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 15
10. DETROIT: 12
11. HOUSTON: 12
12. SEATTLE: 10
13. CLEVELAND: 10
14. MIAMI: 10
15. LA ANGELS: 10
16. TORONTO: 6
17. ST LOUIS: -1
18. PHILADELPHIA: -3
19. CHICAGO CUBS: -3
20. NY METS: -3
21. BALTIMORE: -5
22. TEXAS: -6
23. SAN FRANCISCO: -8
24. PITTSBURGH: -11
25. MINNESOTA: -13
26. ATHLETICS: -13
27. CINCINNATI: -14
28. COLORADO: -15
29. KANSAS CITY: -20
30. WASHINGTON: -24
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking, and then by overall team power rating.
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