MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update:
This week’s MLB Bullpen Systems update wraps up the first half of the 2026 MLB season and while many our system numbers are down compared to their normal performance levels, the strategy of backing better bullpens for every game has still proven advantageous, and in looking back to last season, most of our huge profits came after the All-Star break. For me, it is the foundation of better bullpen methodologies that still has me believing. Well, that and the tremendous profits I’ve pulled over the last decade, so I suppose! With that in mind, this update will be a bit shorter one, as I will just provide the updated system numbers plus look closer at a subject I was asked about last week by a savvy VSiN reader and bullpens and my daily simulation projections you see on the DAILY MATCHUP RATINGS pages on the VSiN.com website.
So, last week I received an email from a VSiN customer who I have communicated with for a long time, and he asked me about starting pitchers and bullpens and if I gauge them all the same in terms of how much bearing I give the starter ratings as compared to the bullpen ratings on my simulations. Well, the answer to this is that I have a specific forecasted start length for every starting pitcher. It is essentially a rolling average forecast model that gives me the expected starting length for that guy based upon recent activity. I then plug the bullpen ratings for that day in for the rest of the totaled nine innings. As I looked at these numbers today, the starting pitcher with the longest expected start length right now is the Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto, at 6.5 innings. There are three other pitchers expected to go 6.4 innings in their next starts: Michael Wacha of Kansas City, Nathan Eovaldi of Texas, and Logan Webb of San Francisco.
As you can theorize, the expected bullpen contribution is less when these types of pitchers are lined up. That said, as I looked collectively at the 30 teams’ current starting rotations, these are the average expected start lengths combined. It can be assumed that the teams at the top of the list turn less to their bullpens than those at the bottom. In fact, those at the bottom are often using openers for games, thus putting more pressure and collective innings on their relief staffs, and perhaps setting up for fatigue down the road.
MLB Rank, Team, Expected Starter IP
1. KANSAS CITY: 5.76
1. LA DODGERS: 5.76
1. SEATTLE: 5.76
4. CLEVELAND: 5.62
5. ARIZONA: 5.58
6. NY YANKEES: 5.54
7. SAN FRANCISCO: 5.48
7. TEXAS: 5.48
9. BALTIMORE: 5.44
10. DETROIT: 5.42
11. ATLANTA: 5.38
12. CHICAGO CUBS: 5.34
12. PHILADELPHIA: 5.34
12. ST LOUIS: 5.34
15. BOSTON: 5.32
16. MINNESOTA: 5.3
17. TORONTO: 5.26
18. PITTSBURGH: 5.22
19. LA ANGELS: 5.16
19. MILWAUKEE: 5.16
21. CINCINNATI: 5.14
22. HOUSTON: 5.1
23. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 5.06
24. ATHLETICS: 5.02
24. SAN DIEGO: 5.02
26. WASHINGTON: 5
27. MIAMI: 4.98
28. TAMPA BAY: 4.96
29. NY METS: 4.82
30. COLORADO: 4.78
Without further ado, here are the various system records through the first half of the 2026 season that we will be tracking every day throughout. Note that on occasion I will add or delete systems based upon my own logic or regression analysis:
The EASIEST way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 regular season, better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 went 1138-1004 for +0.15 units and a ROI of 0%. For 2026, this easy system is off to a slower start this season, 541-512 in all for -83.66 units and an ROI of -7.9%.
This percentage ROI loss still outperforms the average bettor loss for playing every game. However, it has made big drops in back-to-back weeks and does go to prove how crucial it is to get the best lines you can for every wager you make. We are winning 51.4% of our games, but betting almost every game is a tough strategy regardless. It’s usually the case that easiest isn’t always best, although the nearly dead-even returns on 2,142 games last year validate why I believe bullpens are so fundamental to baseball handicapping. If you consider that all of the lines I use for this analysis average out to about a 15% average loss per game, this easiest system is still providing users with an advantage of over 7%. That said, I still prefer discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for bigger edges, and at this point, I can’t honestly advise playing every game on the easiest system. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. THIS is where you should start your handicapping routine each day.
These next angles were new to the bullpen analysis around mid-season 2025. I named them CORRELATION systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the early 2026 season records of these four angles we are now regularly tracking and will continue to do so into the year:
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 26-23 for –5.53 units (ROI -11.3%).
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 45-77 for -34.86 units and a ROI of -28.6%!
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a slow 160-128 start for -23.67 units and a ROI of -8.2%. I might suggest leaving this one off your radar until it starts turning back around.
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 92-115 for +5.45 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect; however, it has lost almost 4.5 units the last three weeks and is headed in its usual direction.
** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and a ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and a ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are teetering around the profitability line at 138-111 for -6.62 units and an ROI of -2.7%.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 39-23 for -11.83 units, ROI -19.1%, as it is now acting like its usual self.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 32-19 but for -14.34 units so far.
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle has been a lucrative FADE system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 21-14 start for -10.14 units, and an ROI of -28.9%.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 164-213 for -30.69 units. This ROI of -8.1% is still advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect at all.
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 137-90 for +29.93 units, an ROI of +13.2%. Upon request, we have begun tracking these on the VSiN Analytics Reports daily.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 108-135 start for -22.69 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 45-62 for -17.63 units and a solid ROI of -16.5%.
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 82-83 for +9.87 units.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in 2025, and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units (ROI 5.2%). It will be on the 2026 Bullpen System Reports once again and is off to a disappointing start of 93-83 for -20.31 units. However, it did get back 1.54 units last week.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 66-70 for -21.9 units.
Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
These are the current key bullpen stats that have accumulated in the 2026 regular season, followed by my current 2026 Bullpen Power Ratings adjusted by me this week for performance. Along with that, I’ve listed the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams from last week to this.
Key Bullpen Stats (2026 regular season stats through games of Sunday 6/28)
Top 6 Bullpen ERAs
1. ATLANTA: 2.8
2. BOSTON: 3.26
3. SAN DIEGO: 3.26
4. NY YANKEES: 3.3
5. MIAMI: 3.37
6. NY METS: 3.42
Worst 6 Bullpen ERAs
30. MINNESOTA: 5.45
29. KANSAS CITY: 5.43
28. COLORADO: 5.03
27. WASHINGTON: 4.98
26. ATHLETICS: 4.95
25. CINCINNATI: 4.82
Top 6 Bullpen WHIPs
1. ATLANTA: 1.09
2. MIAMI: 1.17
3. NY METS: 1.18
4. BOSTON: 1.2
5. NY YANKEES: 1.22
6. LA DODGERS: 1.22
Worst 6 Bullpen WHIPs
30. KANSAS CITY: 1.58
29. MINNESOTA: 1.57
28. CINCINNATI: 1.52
27. COLORADO: 1.48
26. WASHINGTON: 1.45
25. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.43
Top 6 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. CLEVELAND: 10.34
2. PHILADELPHIA: 9.9
3. LA DODGERS: 9.57
4. MIAMI: 9.52
5. PITTSBURGH: 9.43
6. MILWAUKEE: 9.25
Worst 6 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. WASHINGTON: 7.24
29. TEXAS: 7.77
28. SAN FRANCISCO: 7.81
27. ARIZONA: 7.85
26. ST LOUIS: 7.88
25. COLORADO: 8.06
Top 6 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. TAMPA BAY: 0.74
2. LA ANGELS: 0.85
3. NY YANKEES: 0.88
4. ATLANTA: 0.95
5. MIAMI: 0.97
6. BALTIMORE: 0.99
Worst 6 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. KANSAS CITY: 2.3
29. CLEVELAND: 1.95
28. WASHINGTON: 1.9
27. MINNESOTA: 1.76
26. BOSTON: 1.71
25. MILWAUKEE: 1.54
I have used a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since last week Monday (6/22):
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. LA ANGELS: +10 points
2. PITTSBURGH: +8
3. TAMPA BAY: +7
4. NY YANKEES: +6
5. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: +5
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. TEXAS: -11 points
2. CLEVELAND: -9
3. BOSTON: -8
4. WASHINGTON: -7
4. KANSAS CITY: -7
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 6/29)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. ATLANTA: 31
2. LA DODGERS: 27
3. SAN DIEGO: 27
4. NY YANKEES: 24
5. MIAMI: 21
6. BOSTON: 14
7. LA ANGELS: 14
8. DETROIT: 11
9. TAMPA BAY: 10
10. MILWAUKEE: 9
11. HOUSTON: 9
12. NY METS: 9
13. TORONTO: 8
14. SEATTLE: 7
15. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 7
16. CHICAGO CUBS: 5
17. CLEVELAND: 3
18. PHILADELPHIA: 2
19. ARIZONA: 2
20. ATHLETICS: -4
21. TEXAS: -5
22. PITTSBURGH: -7
23. ST LOUIS: -7
24. SAN FRANCISCO: -7
25. BALTIMORE: -8
26. KANSAS CITY: -17
27. WASHINGTON: -20
28. COLORADO: -21
29. CINCINNATI: -25
30. MINNESOTA: -25
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating.
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