Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, August 10, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: ATL is 22-5 (+13.51 units) as larger home night favorites (-130 or higher) with starter Bryce Elder in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-142 vs NYM)
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 516-411 for +45.28 units and an ROI of 4.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-154 at ATH)
Trend: Underdogs are on a 31-18 (63.3%, +20.73 units) run in the Toronto-Boston AL East rivalry
– The ROI on this trend is 42.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+138 vs BOS)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are back over profitability line at 192-144 for +9.78 units and an ROI of +2.9% after a 38-22, +12.75 unit run out of the break.
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+103 vs TEX)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 123-169 start for -9.36 units. After losing about 19 units over the last eight weeks, this angle has finally gone into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-115 at STL), COLORADO (+180 at AZ), SAN FRANCISCO (+137 vs HOU)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 66-38 for -18.85 units, ROI -18.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (-194 vs COL), LA DODGERS (-261 vs KC)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 253-296 for -9.62 units, but it has taken a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 62-49, +24.57 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+104 vs BAL), LA ANGELS (+103 vs TEX)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 199-122 for +53.99 units, an ROI of +16.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-115 at STL), MILWAUKEE (-115 at SD)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 145-180 start for -28.03 units (ROI -8.6%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS (+143 vs TB), SAN DIEGO (+107 vs MIL)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 516-411 for +45.28 units and an ROI of 4.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-154 at ATH)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 251-186 for +24.24 units and an ROI of 5.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-112 at MIN), PHILADELPHIA (-115 at STL), TEXAS (-111 at LAA)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 154-195 for -39.46 units and an ROI of -11.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+107 vs PHI), SAN DIEGO (+102 vs MIL)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 442-386 but for -102.27 units and an ROI of -12.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-142 vs NYM)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 462-411 record for +43.72 units and an ROI of 5% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (+132 at ATL), BALTIMORE (-112 at MIN), PHILADELPHIA (-115 at STL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2186-2066 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -268.66 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (+132 at ATL), BALTIMORE (-112 at MIN)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2244-2814 (44.4%) for -255.15 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-147 at SF), KANSAS CITY (+241 at LAD)
Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 399-198 (66.8%) for +62.37 units and an ROI of 10.4%!
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR SAN DIEGO vs MIL (+107 CURRENTLY)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 112-161 SU (-23.52 units, ROI: -8.6%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (+107 vs PHI)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 208-163 (+20.41 units, ROI: 5.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-154 at ATH)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 263-175 in their last 438 tries (+37.62 units, ROI: 8.6%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-154 at ATH)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 503-485 for +25.70 units, good for +2.6% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: LA ANGELS +103 (+25 diff), ST LOUIS +107 (+24), SAN DIEGO +107 (+17), SAN FRANCISCO +137 (+15)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ATLANTA -142 (+28 diff), ARIZONA -194 (+22)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) NEW YORK-NL (52-67) at (952) ATLANTA (71-47)
Trend: NYM is 5-9 (-5.36 units) on the road with starter Christian Scott in his career
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (+132 at ATL)
Trend: ATL is 22-5 (+13.51 units) as larger home night favorites (-130 or higher) with starter Bryce Elder in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-142 vs NYM)
(953) PHILADELPHIA (63-56) at (954) ST LOUIS (59-59)
Trend: PHI is 21-35 (-17.69 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 at STL)
(957) MILWAUKEE (74-44) at (958) SAN DIEGO (62-57)
Trend: Under the total is 36-18-3 (+15.85 units) when starter Casey Mize is a plus-money underdog in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-SD (o/u at 7)
(959) BOSTON (64-53) at (960) TORONTO (56-63)
Trend: Under the total is 34-15-1 (+17.35 units) when Sonny Gray’s teams are in the -130 to -155 favorite line range since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-TOR (o/u at 8.5)
(961) BALTIMORE (57-61) at (962) MINNESOTA (58-61)
Trend: Under the total is 25-14 (+10.10 units) with starter Trevor Rogers since the start of the 2025 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-MIN (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: Dean Kremer’s teams are 37-18 (+14.59 units) in his last 55 home starts
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+104 vs BAL)
(963) TEXAS (59-59) at (964) LOS ANGELES-AL (45-73)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore’s teams are 2-6 (-6.68 units) when he starts as a road night favorite since the start of the 2022 season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-111 at LAA)
Trend: Under the total is 36-22 (+11.80 units) in LAA home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEX-LAA (o/u at 8)
(965) TAMPA BAY (71-46) at (966) ATHLETICS (47-71)
Trend: Freddy Peralta’s teams are 16-3 (+11.62 units) when he starts as a favorite vs AL opponents since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-154 at ATH)
(967) HOUSTON (60-59) at (968) SAN FRANCISCO (49-69)
Trend: Under the total is 34-22-7 (+9.80 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-SF (o/u at 8.5)
(969) KANSAS CITY (49-70) at (970) LOS ANGELES-NL (70-48)
Trend: Under the total is 37-25-4 (+9.50 units) when KC is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-LAD (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: KC is 3-13 (-9.11 units) as a road underdog with starter Noah Cameron since the start of the 2025 season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+241 at LAD)
Trend: Tarik Skubal’s teams are 27-13 (+4.86 units) in his last 40 night game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-261 vs KC)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #30: Boston at Toronto, Mon 8/10-Thu 8/13
Trend: Underdogs are on a 31-18 (63.3%, +20.73 units) run in the Toronto-Boston AL East rivalry
– The ROI on this trend is 42.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+138 vs BOS)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-261 vs KC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-147 at SF), LA DODGERS (-261 vs KC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-AZ (o/u at 9)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Friday, August 14)
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