MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, September 15.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:40 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The Athletics have their top three players in home runs this season out of the lineup and are 26th in road scoring with just over 4.1 runs per game. Rays starting pitcher Griffin Jax has a 3.99 ERA overall this season with 1.4 home runs per nine innings allowed. That drops to a 3.59 ERA in the role of a starter with 1.2 home runs per nine innings allowed. Athletics starting pitcher Jack Perkins has pitched better than his 6.53 ERA would indicate, with a 4.97 fielding independent and 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings.
Picks: Rays Run Line -1.5 +100 and Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -1.5 -119 and Total 7.8
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto has seen his 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings from last season go down to 8.9 this season. He still has a 2.62 ERA, though for his career his ERA jumps to 3.27 at home with 1.1 home runs per nine innings, compared to a 2.05 ERA with 0.6 home runs per nine innings on the road. Reds starting pitcher Rhett Lowder has a 5.81 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 3.7 walks per nine innings, with at least three runs allowed in each of his past five starts. The Dodgers lead the league in scoring on the road with 5.4 runs per game.
Pick: Dodgers Run Line -1.5 -120
Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -1.5 -148
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
White Sox starting pitcher Davis Martin has been improved since coming off the injured list with just one run allowed in 11 2/3 innings in his past two starts. Martin owns a 4.05 ERA and 3.78 fielding independent with 0.9 home runs and 2.8 walks per nine innings. Guardians starting pitcher Foster Griffin has a 3.65 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 2.4 walks per nine innings. Griffin is supported by a bullpen that is fourth in bullpen ERA since July 1 at 3.24. The White Sox are third in this span with a 3.19 ERA. They face a Guardians lineup that ranks 27th in scoring with 4.1 runs per game.
Pick: White Sox vs. Guardians Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.4
6:45 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Phillies starting pitcher Cristopher Sanchez has supplied a 2.79 ERA with 10.1 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings allowed. Sanchez has not been as sharp on the road, with a 2.21 ERA at home and 0.5 home runs per nine innings allowed, while allowing closer to 1.2 home runs per nine innings with a 3.68 ERA on the road. Nationals starting pitcher Jackson Kent has had command issues with a 6.59 ERA plus 6.6 walks and 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings. He is supported by an offense that is second in scoring at home with nearly 5.4 runs per game.
Pick: Phillies vs. Nationals Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.3
7:40 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs
Things have been shaky for Cubs starting pitcher Kevin Gausman this season, with a 4.60 ERA overall. His 3.73 fielding independent, with 2.5 walks and 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings points toward positivity, especially with the Braves 14th out of 15 National League teams in scoring since August 1. They’ve scored less than four runs per game in that span. Braves starting pitcher Martin Perez appears due for regression on his 3.08 ERA with a 4.24 fielding independent plus 6.7 strikeouts and 3.8 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline -135
Greg’s Handicap: Cubs -150
9:40 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Marlins starting pitcher Janson Junk is pitching to a ton of contact with a 4.54 ERA and six strikeouts per nine innings. Diamondbacks starting pitcher Michael Soroka has a 3.53 ERA overall this season with a 3.04 fielding independent, but he just came off the injured list and allowed three runs in four innings in a piggyback role in his first appearance back last week. Since the All-Star Break, the Diamondbacks are 10th in scoring with over 4.6 runs per game.
Pick: Marlins vs. Diamondbacks Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.8
