MLB Best Bets Today July 24
It is an interesting weekend on the diamond, as we could be seeing some pitchers make their final starts with their respective teams, as the Trade Deadline is a week from Monday. We also have some important series for teams that are hoping to be buyers instead of sellers over the next week and change, as they try to send a message to the front office that they are contenders. Meanwhile, other teams may keep sinking, knowing that what lies ahead is not going to be fun.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for July 24:
Cubs vs. Pirates Prediction
Pick: Pirates -110
Matthew Boyd and Jared Jones are the slated starters for a big series in the NL Central between the Cubs and Pirates. Jones has been on some kind of heater, as he threw six shutout, no-hit innings against the Braves with eight strikeouts on July 8 and followed that up with five innings of one-run ball with nine punchies against the Guardians in his first start after the Break. I believe he actually retired 29 straight batters over a three-start stretch, so essentially threw a perfect game within that time.
Boyd had a solid effort coming out of the Break with six innings of one-run ball against the Twins. He’s got a 4.15 ERA with a 4.72 xERA and a 3.68 FIP over his 52 innings of work, as he missed a month and a half from early May to mid-June, but has a 2.57 ERA since coming back. That said, he has a 5.05 xERA and a 4.82 FIP in that span as well.
The Pirates are fourth in wOBA this month against lefties at .372, as some of their key left-handed bats are on the shelf, but the guys replacing them have been able to perform well, especially against southpaws. The Cubs lead the league in wOBA against LHP this month, but rank 11th against righties. That should be a good thing for Jones.
Both bullpens are well-rested coming off of the Thursday off day, with only Carmen Mlodzinski unavailable for the Pirates. Both relief corps have had some ups and downs, but I do think Pittsburgh will have a lead to protect tonight.
Athletics vs. Twins Prediction
Pick: Athletics +123
The Twins were one of 10 teams in action yesterday, as they fought their way to a split with the Guardians in an extra-inning win to wrap up the four-game series. The Athletics did not play yesterday, as they had a travel day to the Twin Cities. It’ll be Jacob Lopez for the A’s and Zebby Matthews for the Twins as this weekend set gets going.
The left-handed Lopez got sent to the minors to work on his pitch efficiency and cut down on the walks. He’s got a 6.64 ERA this season with a 5.77 FIP, but his 3.85 xERA shows how good of a job he has done limiting hard contact. He has only allowed an 85.2 mph average exit velocity and ranks in the 97th percentile in that department. He’s also in the 89th percentile in Barrel% and 90th percentile in Hard Hit%. He also has elite Extension at 6-foot-4, but he just hasn’t thrown enough strikes to take advantage of it and doesn’t generate enough chases outside the zone.
He has only walked three of the 38 batters he has faced since getting recalled on July 7, so we’ll see if he can keep pounding the zone here. Matthews, meanwhile, doesn’t walk a lot of guys, but he gives up a lot of loud contact. He has a 5.40 ERA with a 4.78 xERA and a 5.22 FIP over his 70 innings of work. He’s given up 15 homers in 12 starts and a 12.5% Barrel%.
The A’s are a bit shorthanded right now without Nick Kurtz and Zack Gelof, plus Brent Rooker is out for the season, but they should still be able to get to Matthews. Also, the A’s have a fresher bullpen, as the Twins had to use Yoendrys Gomez and Andrew Morris back-to-back days, with 36 and 44 pitches, respectively, for those guys. The Twins needed five relievers yesterday in the extra-inning affair. I think that gives the A’s a bit of a late-game advantage here at a plus-money price.
