Today we wrap up the work week with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:45 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks (-125, 9.5) at Washington Nationals
The Diamondbacks (54-49) have won 9 of their last 11 games and just beat the Cardinals 10-6 in a makeup game yesterday, cashing as +105 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Nationals (52-51) just took two of three against the Rockies, winning the series finale 8-0 as -150 road favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Diamondbacks hand the ball to lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (8-3, 2.62 ERA) and the Nationals counter with fellow southpaw Carson Palmquist (0-1, 8.74 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -115 road favorite and Washington a -105 home dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Snakes laying short chalk, driving Arizona up from -115 to -125.
At DraftKings, the Diamondbacks are receiving 67% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Arizona is taking in 85% of moneyline bets and a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the road chalk.
Non-division road favorites off a win receiving line movement in their favor, like the Diamondbacks here, are 75-46 (62%) with a 6% ROI this season.
When Arizona is a favorite receiving line movement in their direction, the Snakes have gone 22-12 (65%) with a 13% ROI this season, the 2nd best chalk line move team in MLB.
Rodriguez has gone 6-0 with a 1.66 ERA in night games compared to 2-3 with a 4.43 in day games.
On the other hand, the Nationals are just 1-6 in Palmquist’s seven appearances this season. He just allowed 4 runs in 1.2 innings pitched in an 8-7 loss to the Rockies his last time out.
The Diamondbacks also have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 4.08 (15th) compared to 5.09 for the Nationals (28th).
The Nationals are just 20-31 at home this season, the 2nd worst home record in MLB.
6:45 p.m. ET: New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies (-135, 7.5)
The Yankees (57-45) just took two of three against the Pirates, winning the series finale 2-0 as -190 home favorites. On the other hand, the Phillies (56-47) just dropped two of three against the Dodgers, losing the series finale 9-5 as +105 home dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Yankees tap righty Cam Schlittler (9-6, 2.20 ERA) and the Phillies go with lefty Jesus Luzardo (9-4, 3.43 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -125 home favorite and New York a +105 road dog.
The public is largely split down the middle and can’t decide who to take.
However, despite the roughly 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen Philadelphia creep up from -125 to -135.
Normally, in a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the line movement we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers have sided with the home chalk.
At DraftKings, the Phillies are receiving 51% of moneyline bets and 64% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Philadelphia is taking in only 29% of moneyline bets but 56% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” sharp discrepancy in favor of the home team.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team taking in line movement is 144-89 (62%) with a 12% ROI this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, also the case here, the home favorite is 63-29 (68%) with a 15% ROI this season.
Non-division favorites in the opening game of a new series who made the playoffs the previous season, like the Phillies tonight, as 122-69 (64%) with a 7% ROI this season.
Philadelphia offers additional correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Phillies are 10-0 in Luzardo’s last ten starts. He has posted a 1.00 ERA in three July starts, giving up only 2 earned runs in 18 innings pitched.
10:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giants (-160, 8.5)
The Angels (41-62) just took two of three against the Cardinals but failed to complete the sweep, dropping the series finale 1-0 as -150 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Giants (42-60) just got swept by the Royals, losing the series finale 5-4 as -140 road favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Angels tap righty Grayson Rodriguez (3-3, 8.23 ERA) and the Giants go with fellow righty Logan Webb (5-7, 3.87 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -150 home favorite and Los Angeles a +130 road dog.
Sharps have quietly laid the wood with the Giants at home, pushing San Francisco up from -150 to -160.
At DraftKings, the Giants are taking in 81% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, San Francisco is receiving only 14% of moneyline bets but 85% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk, especially the pros in Vegas.
When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the home favorite is 63-29 (68%) with a 15% ROI this season.
Friday night favorites are 119-72 (62%) with a 6% ROI this season. If they’re also receiving line movement in their direction, they improve to 86-47 (65%) with a 9% ROI this season.
Rodriguez has posted an 8.68 ERA in two July starts, allowing 9 earned runs in 9.1 innings pitched.
The Angels are 17-34 (33%) on the road this season, the 2nd worst road team in MLB.
