MLB Best Bets Today August 10
Those looking for a distraction to the start of the work week won’t get it from Major League Baseball, as we have 10 games on the schedule, but none of them are early. Our first game doesn’t start until 7:07 p.m. ET, so it will be a long day of waiting for baseball fans. We don’t have many big-name starters on the slate, but we do have Tarik Skubal’s Dodger Stadium debut in our final first pitch of the night. Otherwise, we have a lot of middle-of-the-rotation arms and youngsters.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 10:
Mets vs. Braves Prediction
Picks: Mets Team Total Over 3.5 Runs (-130), Over 4.5 Runs (+125)
A stepladder is the recommendation rather than a nice 6 or 8-footer, but the Mets have a favorable matchup tonight against Bryce Elder in my opinion, even though he’s had some really good returns. If you want, you can take this to 5.5 (+210 at DraftKings), but I think 4.5 is a pretty good place to stop.
Despite Juan Soto’s absence, the Mets are swinging some good sticks of late, slashing .262/.330/.465 in the month of August over eight games with 44 runs scored. They’ve hit 13 homers in that span, which is tied for third behind the Braves and Cubs, who have each hit 14. By no means are the Mets a better team without Soto, who is objectively a top-10 player in the sport and is having a very good year despite the injuries he has battled, but Bo Bichette has picked things up and we’re seeing some nice growth from Carson Benge.
I’m mostly looking to fade Elder here. He has a 1.88 ERA in his four starts since the All-Star Break, but has a 4.33 xERA and a 5.00 FIP in that span. His .161 BABIP and 97.8% LOB% shouldn’t hang around long, especially with just 18 K out of 94 batters. He’s also given up four homers and walked 10 guys, allowing a 16% HR/FB% with a 43.9% Hard Hit% and a 9.1% Barrel%. He only has a 7.7% SwStr% with a 21.6% Chase Rate, so he’s hardly overpowering guys. He’s just running on the right side of BABIP luck. His velo has actually been down in his last two starts as well.
The Braves used four relievers yesterday and used their primary guys on Friday as well, so there should be the possibility for some late runs if we do need them on a sultry night in Atlanta.
Phillies vs. Cardinals Prediction
Pick: Phillies 1st 5 -125
Andrew Painter had a scare last time out with some left hamstring tightness, but he was throwing the ball really, really well against the Nationals. He had a 17.5% SwStr% with a 38.1% Chase Rate and only one of his 11 batted balls against was hit 95+ mph with an average exit velo of 81.9 mph. That was on the heels of a pretty good effort against the Orioles with two runs allowed on just three hits over six innings.
Painter is getting some more horizontal movement on his sweeper since getting recalled and he’s also made a little bit of a move on the pitching rubber, as his horizontal release point is a little bit further out from the center of the plate. He also has seen a pitch classification change with his splitter turning into a changeup, so more of a split-change. He induced a 75% Whiff% on the pitch with 16 of them thrown against the Nationals last time out.
The Phillies know better than I do, but Painter missed all of 2023 and 2024 and then worked 118 innings last season in the minors with a 5.26 ERA, 4.69 xERA, and a 4.81 FIP. It was a little bit aggressive to start the season with him at the MLB level, in my opinion, and he has a 6.48 ERA with a 5.13 xERA and a 5.29 FIP. But, he found some more strikeouts in the minors, cut his HR/FB% significantly, and generated more chases. That should help him induce more weak contact moving forward.
The Cardinals have Hunter Dobbins on the bump. In three starts since the All-Star Break, he has allowed six runs on 17 hits over 17.2 innings of work. He’s done a really good job limiting aerial hard contact and only has allowed a 6.8% Barrel% on the season. However, it’s going to be tough for him to maintain an 83% LOB% without overpowering stuff and an 11% Chase Rate. He has some really interesting reverse splits with a .282/.346/.507 slash against for righties and a .217/.286/.337 slash against for lefties.
Dobbins may very well be a solid arm, but I’m a believer in Painter’s changes and Philadelphia has the objectively stronger lineup. That said, I’m only looking 1st 5 here because of the Phillies’ bullpen usage. Jhoan Duran and Orion Kerkering have each pitched four of the last five days. Jonathan Bowlan would be pitching for the fourth time in six days. Brooks Raley for the third time in three days. Caleb Killian for the fifth time in seven days. Tim Mayza for the fourth time in six days. The bullpen usage has been heavy for the Phillies, so the 1st 5 it is.
Rangers vs. Angels Prediction
Pick: Rangers -111
The Rangers and Angels fire up a key AL West series here, as these are the types of teams that Texas needs to beat with how tight things are in the division and the Wild Card race. The Angels are looking at another lost season and were a seller at the Trade Deadline, including Jo Adell, one of their better hitters against lefties with a .303/.338/.571 slash and a 149 wRC+ that led the team.
As a team, the Angels are slashing just .236/.297/.344 against LHP in the second half with a 27.9% K%, so Gore, who possesses a lot of swing-and-miss upside, should have a pretty decent matchup here in this one. Collectively, the Angels are only batting .193/.253/.297 here in August with a 30.1% K%. They are last by 23 points in wOBA, 18 points in wRC+, and have the highest K%.
Gore, who just came off the paternity list, has a 4.55 ERA, but a 3.83 xERA and a 3.76 FIP in his 128.2 innings of work, so he’s definitely a guy who has deserved a better fate from a run prevention standpoint. His 70.3% LOB% has definitely had an impact in that regard. With well over a strikeout per inning, you’d certainly expect that to be better.
We’ll never know if Reid Detmers was hoping for a trade out of Anaheim, but I’d assume he was a little disappointed to stick around after the Trade Deadline given how little the organization has gotten out of it. He has a 5.05 ERA with a 5.20 xERA and a 4.92 FIP over his last eight starts, as he’s regressing in a lot of areas. He’s still missing a good amount of bats, but has allowed 10 HR in his last 41 innings for a 19.6% HR/FB% and has allowed a 12.7% Barrel% with a 44.5% Hard Hit%.
All of the leverage arms are in good shape for the Rangers, as Jordan Montgomery and Cole Winn combined for 122 pitches yesterday in the ugly loss to the Giants. That should be helpful given that I expect them to have a lead to lock down.
