MLB Best Bets Today August 15
Something for everyone is the story on the Saturday MLB slate, as we have games early and games late across the board. That includes several evening matchups with teams in the playoff hunt to varying degrees and many of those games are closely lined. With a late start this morning, I’ll be focusing exclusively on the games with more lead time.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 15:
Phillies vs. Twins Prediction
Pick: Phillies -124
Jesus Luzardo is a pretty short favorite in this one, as his Phillies take on Connor Prielipp and the Twins. Luzardo has made 24 starts this season and allowed 5+ runs in seven of them, but he’s allowed two or fewer runs in 17 of them, leading to a 3.32 ERA, 2.85 xERA, and a 2.82 FIP over his 143.2 innings of work with 176 strikeouts. There hasn’t really been a rhyme or reason to his blowouts and they’ve mostly been spread out, including six runs over 6.1 innings to the Marlins on July 29. Prior to that start, he hadn’t allowed more than one earned run in an outing since June 16.
In other words, he’s really, really good more often than not. Today he draws a Twins crew that is slashing .240/.317/.392 against LHP with a .314 wOBA that ranks 12th and a 100 wRC+ in the second half. So, a pretty average lineup for an above average pitcher. Luzardo has only allowed seven Barrels over his last 11 starts and has just a 5.8% Barrel% for the season with a 31% Hard Hit%. There is a lot of red on his Baseball Savant page, as he ranks in the 92nd percentile in xERA, 90th in Whiff%, 90th in K%, 92nd in Hard Hit%, 78th in Barrel%, and 88th in GB%. All outstanding numbers.
Prielipp has a far less impressive resume. The fellow southpaw has a 4.79 ERA with a 4.20 xERA and a 4.02 FIP over his 82.2 innings of work. He has 88 strikeouts in that span, but has also allowed 11 HR and a 41.1% Hard Hit%. Recently, he’s given up a ton of loud contact, with a 46.8% HH% over his last seven starts. The Phillies rank third in MLB in wOBA against LHP in the second half at .353 and sport a 122 wRC+ with a .257/.372/.421 slash. Over 16 starts, Prielipp has walked at least two batters in 12 of them and 3+ batters in five of them, so the super-patient Phillies could create some chances for themselves today.
With no workload for the Phillies relievers yesterday thanks to the off day following the Field of Dreams Game, their leverage guys are all well-rested and in great shape. I think their favorite price is too cheap today.
Padres vs. Guardians Prediction
Pick: Over 8.5 (-105)
Wandy Peralta opens in front of Randy Vasquez as the Padres look to make it two in a row over the Guardians in this series. They bested Gavin Williams yesterday and added on against Colin Holderman, who had been one of Cleveland’s more reliable relievers until recently. For their part, the Cleveland offense actually scored five runs, but that wasn’t enough with the bad pitching day.
I think Cleveland’s paltry offense can do some work today. Obviously the left-handed Peralta throws a wrench in Cleveland’s platoon strategy with the right-handed Vasquez following for bulk work, but it’s Vasquez that I think Cleveland can get to. He has a 4.16 ERA with a 5.98 xERA and a 4.66 FIP over 106 innings of work. He’s made 19 starts and four relief appearances with one of the worst K% in the league. The bigger thing here is that lefties destroy him, slashing .311/.362/.515 with a .376 wOBA over 258 plate appearances. Incredibly, he’s been worse against lefties at home than on the road, a surprise given Petco Park, but lefties do have a more favorable park factor in Cleveland than righties with the high wall, so I’m hopeful that Cleveland’s platoon players can find some success.
Joey Cantillo gets the call today for Cleveland and he has a 3.91 ERA with a 4.00 xERA and a 3.96 FIP, but his recent returns have been a bit concerning and this matchup is not a good one for him. The Padres don’t strike out a lot and strikeouts have saved Cantillo this season. He has a solid 25.3% K%, but also has a 10.7% BB% and a .334 BABIP against. When he’s not missing bats, he’s allowing too many baserunners.
In the second half against lefties, the Padres are ninth in wOBA at .330 with a 9.2% BB% and a 19% K%. Only the Rays have a lower K% in the second half against LHP and the Padres are fifth in OBP. All things aren’t equal between the two lineups, but Cantillo faced the Rays in the second half back on July 24 and allowed five runs on eight hits in just 3.2 innings.
Mix in a lot of slumping middle relievers for Cleveland and the Padres offense should have the chance to keep it going. And, there’s rare hope for the Cleveland lineup against Vasquez.
