Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, August 15, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
In MLB games occurring in August or later between two teams who have >= 0.580 win pct, smaller favorites in the -111 to -175 line range have gone 51-22 SU for +20.69 units (ROI: 28.3%) in the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-123 at LAD)
Trend: Under the total is 18-4-2 (+13.55 units) with starter Reid Detmers at home versus opponents with a losing record in his career
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-LAA (o/u at 8)
Trend: Over the total is 40-20-1 (+18.00 units) in PIT home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-PIT (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: SD is 18-5 (+12.53 units) against non-divisional teams within the -200 to +110 line range with starter Randy Vasquez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+108 at CLE)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are back over the profitability line at 192-148 for +5.62 units and an ROI of +1.7% after a 38-26, +8.59 unit run out of the break.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-135 vs WSH), LA ANGELS (-148 vs KC)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar teams in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 51-49 for -13.85 units for an ROI of -13.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-162 vs COL), PHILADELPHIA (-134 at MIN)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For 2026, they are off to a 127-177 start for -11.81 units. After losing about 21.5 units over the last eight-and-a-half weeks, this angle has finally gone into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+151 at SF), CINCINNATI (-105 vs MIA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 261-304 for -8.19 units, but it has taken a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 70-58, +26.00 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+126 at DET), MIAMI (-102 at CIN), SAN DIEGO (+108 at CLE), MINNESOTA (+125 vs PHI)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 202-129 for +48.67 units, an ROI of +14.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-119 vs SEA), BOSTON (-120 at PIT), MILWAUKEE (-123 at LAD)
Worse bullpen teams struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 149-182 start for -25.42 units (ROI -7.7%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 63-88 for -24.66 units and a solid ROI of -16.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – CINCINNATI (-105 vs MIA), PITTSBURGH (+112 vs BOS)
3-games – COLORADO (+151 at SF)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2194-2071 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -267.02 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+126 at DET), HOUSTON (-119 vs SEA)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2250-2831 (44.3%) for -267.53 units and an ROI of -5.3% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+163 at CHC), MIAMI (-102 at CIN), WASHINGTON (+126 at NYM), NY YANKEES (-165 at TOR), MILWAUKEE (-123 at LAD)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 670-564 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +14.63 units, for an ROI of 1.2%.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-129 vs AZ)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #5:
In MLB games occurring August or later between two teams who have >= 0.580 win pct, smaller favorites in the -111 to -175 line range have gone 51-22 SU for +20.69 units (ROI: 28.3%) in the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-123 at LAD)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 329-340 run (+12.02 units, ROI: 1.8%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): TEXAS (-140 at ATH)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 211-163 (+23.52 units, ROI: 6.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+108 at CLE)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
• Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 522-501 for +30.04 units, good for +2.9% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: TORONTO +153 (+34 diff), ATHLETICS +131 (+13)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SAN FRANCISCO -162 (+36 diff), DETROIT -135 (+29), CINCINNATI -105 (+24), NY METS -135 (+21), HOUSTON -119 (+13), LA ANGELS -148 (+13), BOSTON -120 (+10)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) ST LOUIS (61-61) at (902) CHICAGO-NL (72-51)
Trend: Under the total is 15-7-1 (+7.55 units) with starter Michael McGreevy since the start of the 2026 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): STL-CHC (o/u at 9)
(903) COLORADO (49-73) at (904) SAN FRANCISCO (50-72)
Trend: SF is 18-7 (+7.28 units) at home as a favorite vs divisional opponents with starter Logan Webb in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-162 vs COL)
(905) WASHINGTON (60-64) at (906) NEW YORK-NL (54-69)
Trend: WSH is 39-22 (+11.01 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at NYM)
Trend: Sean Manaea’s teams are 10-14 (-8.76 units) when he starts against NL East opponents in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-135 vs WSH)
(911) MILWAUKEE (75-48) at (912) LOS ANGELES-NL (74-49)
Trend: Over the total is 3-0 when LAD is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-LAD (o/u at 7.5)
(913) CHICAGO-AL (63-58) at (914) DETROIT (60-62)
Trend: CWS is 5-6 (-2.00 units) on the road with starter Anthony Kay this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+126 at DET)
Trend: Under the total is 14-4 (+9.70 units) with starter Troy Melton in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-DET (o/u at 7.5)
(915) NEW YORK-AL (68-54) at (916) TORONTO (60-64)
Trend: NYY is 17-6 (+7.64 units) versus opponents with a losing record with starter Cam Schlittler in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-165 at TOR)
(917) BALTIMORE (59-63) at (918) TAMPA BAY (74-47)
Trend: TB is 53-38 (+28.62 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-1.5 vs BAL)
(919) SEATTLE (57-66) at (920) HOUSTON (63-60)
Trend: SEA is 24-37 (-18.37 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+111 at HOU)
(921) KANSAS CITY (50-73) at (922) LOS ANGELES-AL (48-75)
Trend: Under the total is 39-23-1 (+13.70 units) in LAA home games this season
Trend: Under the total is 18-4-2 (+13.55 units) with starter Reid Detmers at home versus opponents with a losing record in his career
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-LAA (o/u at 8)
Trend: LAA is 10-19 (-14.43 units) as a home favorite/pick ‘em with starter Reid Detmers in his career
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (-148 vs KC)
(923) TEXAS (60-63) at (924) ATHLETICS (48-74)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore’s teams are 3-6 (-5.68 units) when he starts as a road night favorite since the start of the 2022 season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-140 at ATH)
(925) SAN DIEGO (66-57) at (926) CLEVELAND (59-64)
Trend: SD is 18-5 (+12.53 units) against non-divisional teams within the -200 to +110 line range with starter Randy Vasquez since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+108 at CLE)
(929) BOSTON (65-57) at (930) PITTSBURGH (60-64)
Trend: Over the total is 40-20-1 (+18.00 units) in PIT home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-PIT (o/u at 7.5)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #19: NY Yankees at Toronto, Fri 8/14-Sun 8/16
Trend: Favorites are just 33-48 (40.7%, -35.15 units) in the last 81 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -43.4%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-165 at TOR)
Series #34: Colorado at San Francisco, Fri 8/14-Sun 8/16
Trend: SAN FRANCISCO is on a 27-6 (81.8%, +14.19 units) surge hosting Colorado
– The ROI on this trend is 43%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-162 vs COL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-135 vs WSH)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): ARIZONA (+120 at ATL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (+108 at CLE), PHILADELPHIA (-134 at MIN), BOSTON (-120 at PIT)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-135 vs CWS), NY METS (-135 vs WSH), LA ANGELS (-148 vs KC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): STL-CHC (o/u at 9), AZ-ATL (o/u at 9)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY
