NFL Survivor
Don’t say I didn’t warn you. The rules of a Survivor contest are so straightforward and seemingly so easy, but the execution is hard and a lot of people have already found that out. We’re down to just around 8,600 entries in Circa Survivor, a contest that began with over 25,000 entries just two weeks ago. Similarly, we’re down to 30 in Circa Grandissimo, which started with 79. I wrote all about that here.
I, too, was on the Buccaneers last week, as the Browns found a different way to hurt me on a Sunday. The “entry” for this Survivor article is out, but I’m still going to be playing the game to provide insight, analysis, and some teams to think about. By no means will I be offended if you fade my pick, but I’m not going to repeat a team as the selection and will try to provide relevant information all season long, in that I’m not telling you to take the Jaguars or Rams in Week 17 or 18 because you wouldn’t have them available, so what’s the point?
Before getting into the Week 3 options, I do want to address Week 2 just a little bit more. The 49ers were there. They were the obvious choice. The Buccaneers were an optimal pick given that they were unlikely to be favored by that amount and the 49ers had more chances to be used. And, yet, saving the 49ers was a waste because those who opted for the Bucs can’t use them because they are out. It’s like I said before the season – that balancing act of going 1-0 while also trying to go 18-0 or 20-0. Saving teams doesn’t matter if you don’t go 1-0 and I think we will see contestants operate differently moving forward as a result of the last two seasons and some of the favorites that wiped out high percentages of the field.
Once again, we’ll be using the Survivor tools from PoolGenius to plot out a course for the season and evaluate the pool picks each week.
Week 3 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider
Packers (-4.5) over Falcons
Those who don’t have to worry about the holidays can take a shot with Green Bay on Thursday night if they want. The Packers haven’t looked very good this season, but the Falcons have looked about as bad as any team. Michael Penix Jr. will return for this game and he is presumably an upgrade over Cooper Rush or Jack Strand, but it may take Penix some time to get his legs under him. This is certainly riskier than the other options, but this is absolutely a game that the Packers should win.
The Packers are active on both the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays, so not an option in Circa Survivor or a contest with those rules. However, per PoolGenius, with a win probability of 68%, Green Bay only has one game higher than that as of now, Week 15 against the Dolphins.
Lions (-6.5) over Jets
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the holidays are a consideration here with the Lions. They don’t play on Christmas, but they do play on Thanksgiving, as they do every year. If Caleb Williams breaks a fingernail between now and then, the Lions might be the team that you want to be using on Turkey Day, as they host the Bears. Right now, the Rams are the clubhouse leader in win probability for that day, but they have a ton of high-percentage spots.
The Jets have been very competitive with their 1-1 start, so maybe this one is a bit scary. With other options, and Thanksgiving to think about if you have to, the Lions aren’t that high on the list, but they are still a team that you could consider. They are 68% to win per PoolGenius.
Bills (-7) over Chargers
LA has to go a long way in hopes of salvaging their season. As we know, teams that start 0-3 rarely make the playoffs and the Chargers have squandered big favorite roles twice, only to head to Buffalo winless as a big underdog. The Bills are also on extra rest here having played on Thursday Night Football in Week 2. Unfortunately, the Bills are a double-holiday team, playing in both the Thanksgiving and Christmas “weeks”.
If those weeks are not of concern to you, the Bills are a pretty decent option. The Chargers have a litany of issues and it’s tough to see those all addressed prior to an early kick across the country. At a 75% win probability number per PoolGenius, that’s the highest in a non-Dolphins game for the Bills the rest of the way.
49ers (-8.5) over Cardinals
The biggest advantage for those taking the 49ers over the Chiefs is that San Francisco does not play a Thanksgiving or Christmas game, so those playing with those rules don’t need to worry about burning them here.
However, the fluidity of the NFL season has me holding the 49ers back this week. When you look ahead to Week 6, the Rams over the Cardinals will be the obvious pick. However, they are a double-holiday team. The next team in the pecking order would be the 49ers against the Commanders, who won’t have Jayden Daniels back by then in all likelihood. The other options are the Ravens at Browns, Patriots vs. Jets, Chiefs vs. Chargers, Colts vs. Titans, Eagles vs. Panthers (off a London game with no bye), and Bills at Raiders. I think having the 49ers then makes me feel better.
Per PoolGenius, the 49ers are 75% this week and 79% in that game against the Commanders in a few weeks. I’ll ride with the biggest favorite as a result.
NFL Week 3 Survivor Pick
Chiefs (-11) over Dolphins
Welp, here’s that question yet again – take the biggest favorite or save them for the future. In Circa Survivor and contests like that, the Chiefs are a Thanksgiving team. They do play at Buffalo in that game, so they’re not going to be a high-confidence pick, but you like to have as many options as possible when the number of games and teams is limited. If Thanksgiving doesn’t matter to you, the question that has tripped people up BOTH weeks of Survivor thus far is present again.
Last week, the 49ers were the easy pick. Those who took the Buccaneers took them because it was the best time to use them on paper. San Francisco had other big favorite roles, including this week against the Cardinals. Most of those who didn’t take the uncontested layup with San Fran lost with Tampa Bay.
This week, the Chiefs are the easy pick. Nothing we’ve seen from the Dolphins suggests that they can hang in this game. But, KC is on one of the holidays and PoolGenius has them at 70% or better to win three times the rest of the way. They are listed at 84% this week, 9% better than anybody else.
Depending on the size of your pool, you may not need to get cute any longer. If a lot of entries have been eliminated, the chances of the contest going the distance are significantly lower. Even with so many eliminated entries in Circa Survivor, I still think it goes all 20 weeks. Your contest may not go 18 or 20 weeks, so taking the highest-percentage team isn’t an issue.
Even treating this like Circa Survivor, I’d go for the best chance to survive and advance.
Teams Used: Jaguars, Buccaneers
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