MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, April 22.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits.
Top MLB Resources:
6:10 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians
Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren has allowed at least three runs in six of his 10 career MLB appearances. He has an ERA of 8.22 since the 2024 season began, allowing 1.6 home runs and 4.5 walks per nine innings. Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee has a 5.85 ERA thus far this season with a 7.88 fielding independent after in 2024, supplying a 3.47 ERA with 9.7 strikeouts to 2.3 walks per nine innings last season. He is backed up by the bullpen with the lowest ERA since the beginning of the 2024 season.
Picks: Guardians Moneyline -108 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Guardians -147 and Total 8.8)
6:40 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Detroit Tigers
Tigers starting pitcher Jack Flaherty has done much of his best work in a Tigers uniform, posting a 2.88 ERA and 3.15 fielding independent as a member of the Tigers the past two seasons. Padres starting pitcher Nick Pivetta has also experienced a career renaissance since moving to San Diego, allowing just four runs in his first four starts across 23 innings. However, the lineup around him is getting banged up with Jackson Merrill on the injured list and Luis Arreaz getting injured on Sunday Night Baseball.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline -109 (Greg’s Handicap Tigers Moneyline -133)
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox
Red Sox starting pitcher Brayan Bello makes his first start of the season after making four minor league appearances with a 7.07 ERA in those appearances. He returns following a 2024 season in which he registered a 4.49 ERA with 1.4 home runs per nine innings allowed. Bello faces a Mariners lineup that is averaging five runs per game away from home, which ranks sixth in the league. Mariners starting pitcher Bryce Miller owns a 3.43 ERA this season, but just a 3.08 fielding independent with only one home run allowed across four starts this season.
Picks: Mariners Moneyline +118 and Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Mariners -108 and Total 9.6)
7:10 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Phillies starting pitcher Cristopher Sanchez has sizable home and road splits since the beginning of the 2024 season, posting an ERA of 2.39 at home with 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed while supplying a 4.73 ERA away from home. Mets starting pitcher Griffin Canning is coming off a shaky 2024 season in which he had a career-worst 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings and a 5.19 ERA. Through four starts this season, he has a much more respectable 3.43 ERA, and his strikeouts per nine innings rate is back to nine.
Picks: Mets Moneyline +111 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Mets +104 and Total 8.1)
7:40 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs
Since coming over from Japan before the start of the 2024 season, Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga has been one of the league’s best pitchers with a 2.81 ERA, with only 1.7 walks per nine innings allowed. Dodgers starting pitcher Dustin May has had his career to this point torpedoed by injuries, and it has robbed him of being able to get more whiffs, posting just a 1.06 ERA to this point through three starts. However, his fielding independent is more than double that, registering 7.4 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings. He faces a Cubs lineup that leads the league in runs per game.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline +108 (Greg’s Handicap Cubs -116)
Colorado Rockies vs. Kansas City Royals
These two teams have been unable to generate offense in the early goings of the season with the Royals last in baseball in runs per game, with just over 2.9 runs per game. The Rockies are last in baseball in runs per game away from home, with just over 1.9 runs per game and a .188 road batting average. Royals starting pitcher Kris Bubic has looked strong in his first four starts of the season, with a 1.88 ERA and 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Rockies starting pitcher Ryan Feltner owns a 4.82 ERA and 4.91 fielding independent in four starts this season.
Picks: Royals -1.5 Run Line +100 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Royals -1.5 Run Line -113 and Total 7.7)
9:40 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants
Brewers starting pitcher Jose Quintana is off to an electric start with Milwaukee, having allowed just one run across 12 2/3 innings in his first two starts. Regression appears imminent with his 3.82 fielding independent, more than three points higher than his 0.71 ERA, and he is getting only 4.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Giants starting pitcher Jordan Hicks has had his struggles to begin the season with 6.04 ERA with more than four walks per nine innings allowed, but a 4.24 fielding independent He is backed up by a bullpen that entered the series second in MLB in ERA this season. The Brewers entered Monday night with a 5.14 bullpen ERA, which ranked 26th.
Picks: Giants Moneyline -125 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Giants -136 and Total 8.1)
10:05 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics
Rangers starting pitcher Patrick Corbin had an uncharacteristically good start his last time out, but still has been one of the game’s biggest fades in recent seasons. He has posted a 5.69 ERA with 1.6 home runs per nine innings allowed since the start of the 2021 season. Athletics starting pitcher Osvaldo Bido seems due for a bit of regression, posting a 2.61 ERA this season, but also a 3.61 fielding independent. The ballpark in Sacramento has helped elevate offense, with six of the Athletics’ first nine home games going over the total.
Pick: Rangers vs. Athletics Over 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 10.2)
