The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, May 23, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 164-89 SU (+39.56 units, ROI: 15.6%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-191 vs COL)

Teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more are on a 39-103 skid (-40.94 units, ROI -28.8%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-102 at BAL)

Trend: Zach Wheeler’s teams are 17-3 (+11.75 units) when he starts as a home favorite between -165 and -190 line range in the last 6+ seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-188 vs CLE)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are off to a modest 91-69 start for -0.53 units and an ROI of -0.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-102 at BAL), NY METS (-102 at MIA), LA DODGERS (-122 at MIL)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 11-11 for -2.18 units and an ROI of -9.9%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): PITTSBURGH (-156 at TOR)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 33-39 for -9.21 units and an ROI of -12.8%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+154 at PHI), MILWAUKEE (+101 vs LAD)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a slow 109-75 start for -2.46 units and an ROI of -1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-131 at KC), NY METS (-102 at MIA), TEXAS (-142 at LAA)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 54-67 for +7.31 units. I still don’t expect this to last long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-118 vs DET), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-102 at SF), WASHINGTON (+141 at ATL), CINCINNATI GAME 2 (-110 vs STL), COLORADO (+157 at AZ)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record so far is 23-11 for -2.82 units and an ROI of -8.3%.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-191 vs COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 98-111 for -1.52 units. However, it did get back +9.13 units since the start of last week alone.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS GAME 1 (-105 at CIN), TORONTO (+129 vs PIT), CLEVELAND (+154 at PHI), DETROIT (-102 at BAL), NY METS (-102 at MIA), ST LOUIS GAME 2 (-110 at CIN), SAN DIEGO (-102 vs ATH)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 57-74 start for -10.49 units (ROI -8%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the L3 regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 26-34 for -6.15 units and an ROI of -10.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – CINCINNATI GAME 1 (-114 vs STL), MINNESOTA (+108 at BOS)
3+ games – MILWAUKEE (+101 vs LAD)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 52-60 for -1.63 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-188 vs CLE), KANSAS CITY (+108 vs SEA)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 401-338 but for -77.88 units and an ROI of -10.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI GAME 1 (-114 vs STL)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2059-1954 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -270.00 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI GAME 1, LA ANGELS, CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2081-2653 (44%) for -269.49 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS GAME 1, CLEVELAND, PITTSBURGH, NY METS, LA DODGERS, SEATTLE

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 629-520 (54.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +27.14 units, for an ROI of 2.4%.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+108 vs SEA)

Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 164-89 SU (+39.56 units, ROI: 15.6%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-191 vs COL)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on some various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early-season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 521-594 SU but for +73.11 units (ROI: 6.6%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 174-192 SU for +34.51 units in L366 divisional games).
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+141 at ATL)
*WATCH FOR NY METS at MIA (-102 CURRENTLY) and DETROIT at BAL (-102 CURRENTLY)*

MLB Team Strength Betting System #6:
Having at least 50 games under their belt for the year, interleague plus-money underdogs who have a 10% or higher win percentage than their opponent have gone 49-34 SU for +23.39 units (ROI: 28.2%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR CHICAGO WHITE SOX at SF (-102 CURRENTLY)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more are on a 39-103 skid (-40.94 units, ROI -28.8%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-102 at BAL)

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 75-150 skid (-43.66 units, ROI: -19.4%).
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-102 at BAL)

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 19-24 (+7.91 units, ROI: 18.4%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 98-181 (-62.96 units, ROI: -22.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-102 at BAL)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 294-307 run (+9.41 units, ROI: 1.6%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-102 at BAL), KANSAS CITY (+108 vs SEA)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of 5-games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 186-153 (+11.38 units, ROI: 3.4%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+154 at PHI)

Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 36-71 (-7.16 units, ROI: -6.7%) in their last 107 tries.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+154 at PHI)

Winning Streak Betting System #8:
Teams on 5+ game winning streaks but playing as large underdogs (+137 or more) have had their totals go Over at a 59-40-5 (59.6%) rate since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-PHI (o/u at 7)

Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 161-154 (-56.20 units, ROI: -17.8%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-171 vs WSH), MILWAUKEE (+101 vs LAD)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: SAN DIEGO -102 (+55 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA -171 (+48 diff), ARIZONA -191 (+20), CHICAGO CUBS -156 (+18)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: WSH-ATL OVER 8.5 (+0.8)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: ATH-SD UNDER 8 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(903) NEW YORK-NL (22-29) at (904) MIAMI (23-29)
Trend: Under the total is 13-4 (+8.60 units) in Freddy Peralta’s last 17 road starts versus NL opponents within line range of -300 to +112 since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-MIA (o/u at 7.5)

(905) LOS ANGELES-NL (31-20) at (906) MILWAUKEE (30-18)
Trend: MIL is 9-2 (+6.31 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+1.5 vs LAD)

(909) COLORADO (20-32) at (910) ARIZONA (26-24)
Trend: AZ is 18-5 (+11.07 units) in the last 23 Home Divisional starts by Zac Gallen
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-191 vs COL)

(913) DETROIT (20-32) at (914) BALTIMORE (22-29)
Trend: Framber Valdez’s teams are 11-7 (+3.88 units) when he starts as a slight underdog (between -108 to +105) in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-102 at BAL)

(915) SEATTLE (25-27) at (916) KANSAS CITY (20-31)
Trend: SEA is 24-10 (+8.24 units) as a ROAD favorite of -125 or higher with George Kirby in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-131 at KC)
Trend: Under the total is 12-3-1 (+8.70 units) when KC is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-KC (o/u at 8.5)

(921) HOUSTON (21-31) at (922) CHICAGO-NL (29-22)
Trend: CHC is 8-17 (-10.72 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-1.5 vs HOU)

(923) PITTSBURGH (26-25) at (924) TORONTO (24-27)
Trend: TOR is 4-11 (-6.02 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (+129 vs PIT)

(925) CHICAGO-AL (26-24) at (926) SAN FRANCISCO (20-31)
Trend: Adrian Houser’s teams are 27-14 (+14.17 units) in his last 41 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-119 vs CWS)

(927) CLEVELAND (31-22) at (928) PHILADELPHIA (25-26)
Trend: Zach Wheeler’s teams are 17-3 (+11.75 units) when he starts as a home favorite between -165 and -190 line range in the last 6+ seasons
Trend: PHI is 27-12 (+8.58 units) in the last 39 day game starts by Zach Wheeler
Trends Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-188 vs CLE)

Series #24: Detroit at Baltimore, Fri 5/22-Sun 5/24
Trend: Favorites are 21-9 (70%, +8.00 units) in the last 30 games in the BAL-DET series
– The ROI on this trend is 26.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-118 vs DET)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): HOUSTON, CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, PITTSBURGH, CLEVELAND, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, SAN DIEGO

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Monday, May 25)

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