MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, April 30.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits.
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3:10 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers starting pitcher Tony Gonsolin is making his first MLB start since 2023 — and he wasn’t great back then either, posting a 5.43 FIP and a 4.98 ERA with 1.7 home runs and 3.5 walks allowed per nine innings. Marlins starter Cal Quantrill hasn’t been much better, with a 5.50 FIP and at least three runs allowed in four of his past five starts. Still, he’s done just enough to lead Miami to wins in three of his last four outings.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline +247 (Greg’s Handicap: Marlins +239)
4:10 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Padres starter Michael King has been dominant this year with a 2.18 ERA, allowing three earned runs or fewer in all six starts. He’s averaging 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings and is backed by a bullpen that entered Monday with a league-best 1.61 ERA. Giants starter Landon Roupp boasts similar strikeout numbers (10.9 K/9), but a 4.56 ERA thanks to 1.1 home runs and 3.9 walks allowed per nine.
Pick: Padres Moneyline -128 (Greg’s Handicap: Padres -146)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners
The Angels entered Tuesday with the league’s worst batting average at .210 and now have to play in a ballpark that’s been the toughest for hitters in 2024. Angels starter Tyler Anderson has a 2.75 ERA in 17 road starts since the start of the 2024 season, with just 0.9 home runs allowed per nine. Mariners starter Emerson Hancock has allowed just four total runs over his last two starts (11 innings), bouncing back from a blow-up debut where he gave up six runs in 2/3 of an inning.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.3)
6:35 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Both starters come in with mediocre numbers. Orioles pitcher Cade Povich owns a 5.04 ERA and 4.39 FIP, giving up 1.4 home runs and 3.2 walks per nine. Yankees starter Carlos Carrasco hasn’t been better, with a 5.26 ERA and 5.32 FIP, plus 1.8 home runs allowed per nine — but he’s supported by an offense scoring an AL-best 5.4 runs per game.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline +102 (Greg’s Handicap: Orioles -124)
6:40 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates starter Carmen Mlodzinski has a 6.95 ERA, but a much more reasonable 3.84 FIP, with only two home runs allowed over five starts. Cubs starter Matthew Boyd looks due for regression: his ERA sits at 2.54, but his FIP is 4.02. Fortunately for him, he’s facing a Pirates lineup that ranks 25th in runs per game at just 3.5.
Pick: Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.3)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds (Game 2 of Doubleheader)
Cardinals pitcher Steven Matz has a sparkling 1.80 ERA this season, but his effectiveness in a starter’s role is questionable. He’s made only one start this year, and his ERA as a starter was 6.12 in 2024 and 4.04 in 2023, compared to 2.81 and 2.25 coming out of the bullpen in those respective seasons. Reds starter Andrew Abbott owns a 3.60 ERA with 12 strikeouts per nine and is backed by a bullpen with a 3.46 ERA, while the Cardinals bullpen ranks 25th at 4.80.
Pick: Reds Moneyline -125 (Greg’s Handicap: Reds -146)
7:40 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago White Sox
Since debuting in 2024, Brewers pitcher Tobias Myers has been excellent with a 3.04 ERA, 8.2 strikeouts, and 2.5 walks per nine. White Sox starter Shane Smith has been effective so far (2.30 ERA), but his 3.32 FIP suggests regression is coming. He’s averaging three walks and 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings and is backed by a lineup that’s scoring just 3.5 runs per game at home — second-worst in the league.
Pick: Brewers -1.5 Run Line +100 (Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -1.5 -137)
