MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update:
This week’s MLB Bullpen Systems update is an encouraging one, as I had manifested last week in this piece that the turning of the calendar to June would help us usher in our usual profits. It wasn’t a massive week, and we’ll certainly have better, but we did get some profits on our easiest system and in turn, brough back some real nice returns in some of our usually more potent systems, such as the IMPORTANCE of PITCHING angle. In a somewhat related concept, I also found a line angle that has been killing it this season! I’ll go over the details in this week’s update, plus share some recent thoughts I’ve had in closely following the bullpen performances lately, regarding my own personal wagering.
As I just indicated, it was a pretty good week overall as we turned the calendar to June last Monday. The easiest system got back +1.35 units of profit, but the biggest winners were as follows:
– The Importance of Pitching System: This all-encompassing pitcher strength angle secured almost +7 units of profit last week to get back in the black for the season. This angle looks at both starting & relief pitching and encourages bettors to back teams even when their won-lost records are equal or less.
– The CORRELATION SYSTEM #2 angle shows that teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse are great fades, continues to do well. After losing over 7-units last week, these fade teams are now -27.86 units down for the season, a ROI of -29.3%!
– All four streak angles went the direction of their usual tendencies, and although they are under-performing, we could be witnessing the start of a turnaround.
As I indicated before, I had a feeling in my own wagering that certain lined teams were doing well. I felt like I was really getting a lot out of the smaller favorites I was betting on with better bullpens. I looked back today, and sure enough, smaller favorites in the -111 to -126 range that have a Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating edge are 113-64 for +36.7 units this season!!! That’s good for +20.7% ROI. I’m not going to make this a system yet, but if you’ve noticed the same as me and are interested in trimming down the plays each day, this is a great place to start. Why is this fundamentally strong? Well, in games with tight lines like this, perhaps the bullpen strength of the small favorite winds up being the difference maker. It makes sense, and the profits so far in 2026 certainly validate the theory.
A couple of other things I wanted to touch on this week…I almost thought of introducing a “Padres-Cubs Clause” to the bullpen systems this week, as I am literally getting sick and tired of seeing these teams pop up as plays on the easiest angle. The way these teams are performing recently is a good example of how easy is not best. It doesn’t even matter that the Padres and Cubs bullpens continue to perform admirably during their recent skids, the rest of what they are bringing to the table each day is terrible. In my opinion, both teams are currently untouchable, particularly in the favorite role. Dating back to May 9th, San Diego and Chicago have combined to go 16-34 for -22.99 units on our easiest angle. That is nearly half of our season’s losses right now. Unreal.
The last subject I wanted to discuss is the dramatic swing the Reds have undergone this season in terms of bullpen strength, because, quite frankly, I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like it. At the height of their SM BP Rating back on April 21st, the Reds were sitting at 15-8 and in first place in the NL Central. At the time, their SM BP Rating was at a season-high 21. They had an ERA of 2.23 at the time. However, there was one particular sign of concern, and that was walks. They had walked 55 hitters in 88-2/3 innings, a brutal figure. They were still getting hitters out, though. Since then, things have turned dramatically, not in the walk department, but they are no longer getting hitters out like that and thus are allowing a ton of runs. Since 4/21, the Reds’ SM BP Rating has dropped 49 points to where they currently sit (-28). They have gone 16-25 in the games since then and have fallen to the bottom of the division. Their collective bullpen stats in that extended skid…6.74 ERA, 1.71 WHIP. Perhaps the Reds are another team to leave off your betting list for the time being, unless of course, it’s fading them.
These MLB Bullpen Systems derive from my own fundamental belief that backing teams with better bullpen performance consistently over the course of a season will lead to profits, or at least minimize losses. It has done so every year I have shared the logic. Trust me when I say that I have experienced similar starts to this one. It seems that even after many years of starting pitchers lasting fewer and fewer innings each season on average, oddsmakers are still predicating their lines on lineups and starting pitchers. In many cases, the relief pitchers are almost ignored. This is where the value is derived from if you have a solid, reliable set of bullpen ratings, systems, and even score simulations. I have all of this and share it with VSiN subscribers every day throughout the season.
Without further ado, here are the various system records through the first 2+ months of the 2026 season that we will be tracking every day throughout. Note that on occasion, I will add or delete systems based upon my own logic or regression analysis:
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 regular season, better-rated bullpen teams that were NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20, went 1138-1004 for +0.15 units and an ROI of 0%. For 2026, this EASY system is off to a slower start this season, 421-380 in all for -48.81 units, and an ROI of -6.1%. We did get back 1.35 units last week.
It’s usually the case that EASIEST isn’t always BEST, although the nearly dead-even returns on 2,142 games last year validate why I believe bullpens are so fundamental to baseball handicapping. If you consider that all of the lines I use for this analysis average out to about an 15% average loss per game, this easiest system is still providing users with an advantage of 9%. That said, I still prefer discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. This is where you should start your handicapping routine each day.
These next angles were new to the bullpen analysis around mid-season 2025. I named them CORRELATION systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the early ‘26 season records of these four angles we are now regularly tracking and will continue to do so into the year:
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For ’26, these teams are 18-17 for –2.67 units (ROI -7.6%).
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 36-59 for -27.86 units and a ROI of -29.3%!
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a slow 133-98 start for -9.33 units and a ROI of -4%.
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 74-88 for +9.52 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect.
** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and a ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams have gone positive again at 115-85 start for +3.22 units and an ROI of +1.6 after last week brought in +6.74 units.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record so far is 29-12 for +0. 8 units.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 32-18 but for -11.53 units so far.
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle has been a lucrative fade system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 19-9 start for -1.62 units.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 124-150 for -11.41 units.
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 705-754 record, for +23.82 units (ROI 1.6%) in the full 2024-25 seasons. I believe this angle has some merit in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but wound up 377-404 for +13.98 units. The 2026 record is 116-137 for -15.78 units thus far, although we did start the month of June by getting some money back.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to an 82-99 start for -10.24 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the ‘26 results so far show a record of 36-46 for -8.29 units and an ROI -10.1%.
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 65-75 for -1.12 units.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in 2025, and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units (ROI 5.2%). It will be on the ’26 Bullpen System Reports once again and is off to a disappointing start of 77-68 for -17.47 units.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 49-58 for -25.26 units. These are bad numbers but June could hopefully mark a turning point as we saw a 7-3 mark last week for +4.44 units.
Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
These are the current key bullpen stats that have accumulated in the 2026 regular season, followed by my current 2026 Bullpen Power Ratings adjusted by me this week for performance. Along with that, I’ve listed the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams from last week to this.
Key Bullpen Stats (2026 regular season stats through games of Sunday 6/7)
Top 6 Bullpen ERAs
1. ATLANTA: 3
2. SEATTLE: 3.15
3. TEXAS: 3.16
4. BOSTON: 3.19
5. NY METS: 3.24
6. SAN DIEGO: 3.24
Worst 6 Bullpen ERAs
30. COLORADO: 5.31
29. CINCINNATI: 5.12
28. HOUSTON: 5.02
27. KANSAS CITY: 5
26. MINNESOTA: 4.87
25. LA ANGELS: 4.85
Top 6 Bullpen WHIPs
1. ATLANTA: 1.1
2. LA DODGERS: 1.18
3. BOSTON: 1.19
4. TEXAS: 1.21
5. NY METS: 1.21
6. SAN DIEGO: 1.21
Worst 6 Bullpen WHIPs
30. CINCINNATI: 1.55
29. KANSAS CITY: 1.55
28. MINNESOTA: 1.51
27. LA ANGELS: 1.51
26. COLORADO: 1.48
25. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.45
Top 6 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. CLEVELAND: 10.49
2. PHILADELPHIA: 9.96
3. LA DODGERS: 9.62
4. MIAMI: 9.45
5. PITTSBURGH: 9.43
6. SAN DIEGO: 9.31
Worst 6 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. WASHINGTON: 7.14
29. SAN FRANCISCO: 7.53
28. TEXAS: 7.6
27. CHICAGO CUBS: 7.87
26. ARIZONA: 7.92
25. MINNESOTA: 7.93
Top 6 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. TEXAS: 0.84
2. NY METS: 0.86
3. HOUSTON: 0.98
4. SEATTLE: 1.03
5. PITTSBURGH: 1.08
6. CLEVELAND: 1.1
Worst 6 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. COLORADO: 2.28
29. SAN FRANCISCO: 2.27
28. ARIZONA: 1.84
27. CINCINNATI: 1.84
26. LA DODGERS: 1.73
25. MINNESOTA: 1.48
I have used a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since last week Monday (6/1):
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. TEXAS: +13 points
2. HOUSTON: +8
2. PHILADELPHIA: +8
4. LA ANGELS: +6
4. KANSAS CITY: +6
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. COLORADO: -10 points
2. LA DODGERS: -9
2. MINNESOTA: -9
4. CINCINNATI: -8
4. SAN DIEGO: -8
5. SAN FRANCISCO: -7
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 6/8)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. ATLANTA: 32
2. LA DODGERS: 26
3. SAN DIEGO: 26
4. MILWAUKEE: 23
5. BOSTON: 22
6. NY METS: 19
7. SEATTLE: 18
8. PHILADELPHIA: 17}
9. CLEVELAND: 17
10. NY YANKEES: 15
11. TEXAS: 13
12. CHICAGO CUBS: 12
13. ATHLETICS: 8
14. MIAMI: 8
15. TORONTO: 7
16. ARIZONA: 6
17. PITTSBURGH: 4
18. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 4
19. HOUSTON: 3
20. ST LOUIS: 1
21. DETROIT: 0
22. TAMPA BAY: -3
23. LA ANGELS: -3
24. SAN FRANCISCO: -4
25. BALTIMORE: -5
26. KANSAS CITY: -11
27. WASHINGTON: -13
28. MINNESOTA: -15
29. CINCINNATI: -28
30. COLORADO: -30
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating.
