MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, July 23.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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12:05 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals
Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo owns a 3.33 ERA and while his 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings are a career-low, he is issuing only 1.8 walks per nine innings. Nationals starting pitcher Michael Soroka has struggled to a 5.10 ERA despite allowing only 1.2 home runs and 2.6 walks per nine innings. He is backed up by a bullpen whose 5.79 ERA ranks last in the league.
MLB Pick: Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 9.2)
12:15 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves
Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider has a 3.59 ERA with 3.6 walks per nine innings overall this season. Strider enters Wednesday having allowed three runs or fewer in each of his past seven starts with a 2.53 ERA in this span. Giants starting pitcher Justin Verlander has yet to pick up a win this season, having allowed at least three runs in four of his past five starts. His 4.99 ERA is backed up by a 4.25 fielding independent, with only 1.1 home runs per nine innings allowed per nine innings. The Giants’ 3.20 bullpen ERA ranks second in the league.
MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.2)
2:20 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago Cubs
Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo has a 2.94 ERA this season, but allows a lot of contact with a 4.37 fielding independent with 1.4 home runs and 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Cubs starting pitcher Colin Rea has a 3.80 ERA with only five total runs allowed across his last four starts. He is also allowing a lot of contact with 6.5 strikeouts and 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings. The weather at Wrigley Field is expected to be windy with 8-10 mile-per-hour winds.
MLB Pick: Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago Cubs Over 10 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 11.1)
3:10 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies
Cardinals starting pitcher Andre Pallante has a 4.71 ERA with only 5.7 strikeouts per nine innings. He has to pitch at Coors Field, whose ballpark factors lead to the biggest increase in scoring in all of baseball. Rockies starting pitcher Tanner Gordon has a 4.24 ERA in his three-start sample size this season, but he has a lifetime 7.19 ERA and last pitched in an MLB game on May 28.
MLB Picks: Cardinals Run Line 1.5 -125 and Over 11 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Cardinals -1.5 -132 and Total 11.9)
3:40 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Astros starting pitcher Brandon Walter has a 3.66 ERA but is also giving up a lot of hard contact, surrendering 1.7 home runs per nine innings while getting 9.1 strikeouts and 0.6 walks per nine innings. Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt has a 4.82 ERA with 1.4 home runs per nine innings allowed. He is backed up by a lineup that ranks fourth with over 5.1 runs per game and a Diamondbacks bullpen that is 26th in ERA at 4.89.
MLB Pick: Houston Astros vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 9.2)
6:40 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians
Guardians starting pitcher Slade Cecconi has a 3.84 ERA with three runs or fewer allowed in seven of his past eight starts and two runs or fewer allowed in six of them. Orioles starting pitcher Zach Eflin is making his first start in the month of July, posting a 5.95 ERA with 2.3 home runs per nine innings allowed. He faces a Guardians lineup whose less than 3.6 runs per game at home is the second-fewest in the league.
MLB Picks: Guardians Moneyline -120 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Guardians -131 and Total 8.1)
7:05 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo is due for positive regression with his 4.29 ERA with owning a 2.87 fielding independent with 0.7 home runs allowed and 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings. Red Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his past seven starts, posting a 3.59 ERA overall this season, but just a 1.43 ERA in this seven-start span.
MLB Pick: Red Sox vs. Phillies Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.2)
