MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, May 8.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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6:10 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo makes his first start of the season at the MLB level after registering a 1.50 ERA with 12.8 strikeouts per nine innings in his three minor league rehab starts, and in 2025 Lodolo posted a 3.33 ERA with nine strikeouts and 1.8 walks per nine innings allowed, while Astros starting pitcher Mike Burrows has a 5.97 ERA with 1.9 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings and is backed by a bullpen that ranks last in ERA at 6.29.
Pick: Reds Moneyline -125
Greg’s Handicap: Reds -142
7:05 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles
Athletics starting pitcher Jacob Lopez has struggled this season with a 6.60 ERA with 1.8 home runs and 6.6 walks per nine innings after having a 4.08 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings last season and is supported by a lineup that entered Thursday 27th in road scoring with 3.6 runs per game, while Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Bradish has had solid swing-and-miss stuff with 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings, but his 5.6 walks and 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed have led to a 5.03 ERA. He is also coming off posting a 1.89 ERA at home last season.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline -132 and Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Orioles -162 and Total 8.3
7:10 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins
The Marlins are giving pitcher Robby Snelling his first career MLB start after posting a 1.86 ERA with 13.7 strikeouts per nine innings for AAA Jacksonville this season, while Nationals starting pitcher Foster Griffin has returned from playing overseas to post a 2.27 ERA thus far in 2026, but his 4.32 fielding independent with 3.2 walks per nine innings is a concern. The Marlins also have the advantage in the bullpen, ranking seventh in ERA at 3.45, while the Nationals are 22nd with a 4.62 ERA.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline -122
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -138
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians
Guardians starting pitcher Parker Messick has had a superb start to the season, registering a 2.40 ERA with 9.6 strikeouts and 2.2 walks per nine innings, while Twins starting pitcher Connor Prielipp has a 3.86 ERA in his three career starts with 1.3 home runs and 3.2 walks per nine innings. The real issue, however, is the bullpen backing him up, as the Twins are 29th in bullpen ERA at 5.81.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline -136
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -168
7:40 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox
White Sox starting pitcher Sean Burke has gotten off to a nice start to the season with a 2.72 ERA while issuing only 1.8 walks per nine innings, but the dip to only 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings is a concern, while Mariners starting pitcher Emerson Hancock has had a breakout season, posting a 2.59 ERA with 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings, but his 3.69 fielding independent with 1.5 home runs per nine innings allowed is a concern, especially with the White Sox eighth in home runs per at-bat. The White Sox also give up their share of runs with a bullpen that ranks 21st in ERA at 4.49.
Pick: Mariners vs. White Sox Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starting pitcher Jacob Misiorowski has been a master at getting strikeouts this season with 14 strikeouts per nine innings, which leads all qualifying National League pitchers, but the 3.6 walks per nine innings are a concern and he faces a Yankees lineup that is third in scoring with 5.4 runs per game, while Yankees starting pitcher Max Fried has a 2.39 ERA with just 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings, keeping his ERA low by allowing just one home run across eight starts and 52 2/3 innings. He faces a Brewers lineup that ranks just 29th in home runs per at-bat but sixth in scoring with 5.2 runs per game.
Pick: Yankees vs. Brewers Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.6
8:05 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers
It hasn’t been a great year for Rangers starting pitcher Kumar Rocker, who owns a 4.71 ERA, but his 3.98 fielding independent with 0.9 home runs per nine innings points toward positivity, and he has been a totally different pitcher throughout his career at home, posting a career 2.53 ERA with fewer than 0.2 home runs per nine innings at home compared to a whopping 8.06 ERA with nearly 2.5 home runs per nine innings away from home. Ben Brown is pressed into action as the Cubs starting pitcher due to the rash of injuries they have, and while he has posted a 2.10 ERA this season, that has come almost exclusively as a bullpen pitcher. He struggled in the role of a starter in 2025, posting a 6.30 ERA with over 1.6 home runs per nine innings in his starts last season.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline +115 and Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -113 and Total 8.2
9:40 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Mets starting pitcher Nolan McLean has been incredible this season, posting a 2.97 ERA with a 2.12 fielding independent with 11.7 strikeouts and 0.5 home runs per nine innings, but is supported by a lineup that is 29th in scoring with fewer than 3.7 runs per game, while Diamondbacks starting pitcher Ryne Nelson has had a rough start to the 2026 season with a 6.61 ERA and two home runs per nine innings allowed. However, he is coming off a 2025 season in which he posted a 3.39 ERA with one home run and 2.4 walks per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline +127
Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks +118
9:45 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres
Cardinals starting pitcher Michael McGreevy has had a strong start to the season with a 2.52 ERA, but his 4.18 fielding independent with only 5.5 strikeouts per nine innings is a concern, while Padres pitcher Griffin Canning is making his second start of the season after allowing one run in five innings in his first outing. The command is still a concern, however, as he had 4.1 walks per nine innings last season and allowed a solo home run while issuing three walks in his first start this season.
Pick: Cardinals vs. Padres Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.3
10:10 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Braves lead the league in scoring with 5.6 runs per game and send Chris Sale to the mound, who owns a 2.14 ERA with 10.5 strikeouts and 2.6 walks per nine innings and is supported by a bullpen that is fourth in ERA at 3.22, while the Dodgers are fifth in run production overall with 5.3 runs per game but rank just 13th in scoring at home with 4.6 runs per game. They give Emmet Sheehan the start on the mound, and he has a 5.23 ERA with 1.7 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Braves Moneyline +102
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -116
