WNBA Picks
We are finally back! The WNBA tips off Friday night with a tripleheader featuring the title favorite New York Liberty hosting the Connecticut Sun, the young Seattle Storm hosting the Golden State Valkyries, and the newly-minted Toronto Tempo hosting the Washington Mystics. Stay tuned all season, as I will have daily projections every day that there are 2+ games in the W.
For the rare standalone games, I’ll post those publicly on X (@TShoeIndex).
Here are the projections from the T Shoe Index for opening night in the WNBA:
New York Liberty (-13.5) vs Connecticut Sun, O/U 162.5
This line has moved all the way down to 13.5 from 17.5 with the news that Sabrina Ionescu will be out a couple weeks for the Liberty, but this seems like a big overreaction to me. The Liberty still have Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, Satou Sabally and a whole supporting cast of experienced, capable players behind Sab.
When handicapping how a player affects a point spread, it’s not so much about that player as it is what the team has around and behind them; in this case, New York has plenty. This could be an overreaction to these teams’ recent preseason matchup, where the Liberty only won by 12, but Jones and Stewart only played a combined 38 minutes in the contest, while Sabally sat out altogether. TSI projects the Liberty -17 with a total of 167, lending itself to the Liberty and the Over.
Bets: Liberty -13.5 (play to -15), Over 162.5 (Play to 165)
Toronto Tempo (-1.5) vs Washington Mystics, O/U 159.5
Toronto will play its first ever game as a WNBA franchise Friday as it hosts the up-and-coming Mystics, who are extremely young and talented. A quick refresher on what the Tempo have done in assembling their roster from scratch, from my WNBA season preview: Toronto has taken an aggressive approach, signing Marina Mabrey and Brittney Sykes to big contracts while picking up Nyara Sabally, Julie Allemand, and 2026 NCAA champion Kiki Rice via the expansion and college drafts. Allemand will take center stage as the Tempo’s top point guard after helping the Sparks make a late push for the playoffs last season.
That said, TSI is projecting the Tempo -2 with a total of just 155.5 in this game.
Bet: Under 159.5 (Play to 157.5)
Seattle Storm (+5.5) vs Golden State Valkyries, O/U 154.5
Golden State is coming off a playoff berth in its inaugural season and hopes to take the next step in building off of that this season; The Storm lost their top five scorers from last season: Nneka Ogwumike, Skylar Diggins, Gabby Williams, and others this offseason, leaving just Ezi Magbegor and Dominique Malonga back from the core. In rebuilding mode under a new coach, Seattle added veterans Stefanie Dolson, Natisha Hiedeman, and Katie Lou Samuelson in free agency, while using the No. 3 overall pick on 19-year-old center Awa Fam Thiam from Spain and acquiring Flau’jae Johnson (No. 8 pick) from Golden State.
TSI projects the Valkyries -3.5 with a total of 156. Given the huge roster turnover of Seattle, I’m going to sit this one out and collect a data point on them before giving full confidence to the numbers in the preseason.
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
