MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, August 24.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:40 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers
Tigers starting pitcher Framber Valdez has had issues this season, posting a 4.35 ERA with a career-low 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings and 3.5 walks per nine innings, while Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen has a 3.01 ERA and 3.00 fielding independent with 0.9 home runs and 1.7 walks per nine innings allowed. Rasmussen faces a Tigers lineup that leads the American League in run production since June 1 with 5.2 runs per game, while the Rays are 11th in road scoring with 4.6 runs per game.
Pick: Rays vs. Tigers Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2
Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins
Red Sox starting pitcher Ranger Suárez overall this season has been more than solid with a 3.41 ERA, nine strikeouts per nine innings, and 0.6 home runs per nine innings allowed, but has struggled since coming off of the injured list with five consecutive starts of 5 1/3 innings or fewer and has allowed at least four runs in three of his past four starts. Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcántara has a 3.46 ERA with 0.9 home runs and 2.4 walks per nine innings allowed, but is also getting a career-low 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings and faces a Red Sox lineup that leads the league in scoring since the All-Star Break with 5.7 runs per game.
Pick: Red Sox vs. Marlins Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1
6:45 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals
Rockies starting pitcher Ryan Feltner has struggled, registering a 5.97 ERA with 1.9 home runs and 3.8 walks per nine innings. He has given up at least four runs in five of his past seven starts, allowing 33 total runs and 10 home runs in 33 innings in that span. Nationals starting pitcher Cade Cavalli has a 3.22 ERA and 3.31 fielding independent with 10.2 strikeouts and 2.6 walks per nine innings and gets to face a Rockies lineup that is without its leader in home runs, Hunter Goodman. Washington is leading the league in scoring with 5.2 runs per game, though its top two home run hitters, CJ Abrams and James Wood, are also dealing with injuries.
Pick: Nationals Run Line -1.5 +120 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Nationals -1.5 +107 and Total 9.1
7:40 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox
Rangers starting pitcher Kumar Rocker overall this season owns a 4.46 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings allowed, but has always struggled on the road with a lifetime 5.93 road ERA and 1.6 home runs per nine innings allowed. He faces a White Sox lineup that is seventh in scoring with four runs per game, while White Sox starting pitcher José Urquidy has pitched better than his 5.06 ERA would indicate this season with a 2.96 fielding independent. However, the sample size of 16 innings is too small to draw much from, and Urquidy has a lifetime 4.04 ERA with 1.5 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline -125 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: White Sox -135 and Total 8.8
9:40 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres
The Pirates’ starting pitcher has performed better than his 3.68 ERA would indicate, as his fielding independent is 3.58 with 9.6 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings, but he has given up at least four runs in five of his past 10 starts. Robbie Ray has a 3.20 ERA and 4.58 fielding independent with 1.2 home runs and 4.4 walks per nine innings this season, but enters in his best form of the season with a 1.82 ERA and 0.6 home runs per nine innings in his past 11 starts. He is supported by a Padres lineup that is second in scoring since the All-Star Break with 5.2 runs per game, while the Pirates are 18th in bullpen ERA at 4.18.
Pick: Padres Moneyline -105 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Padres -146 and Total 8.3
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants
Giants starting pitcher Carson Whisenhunt has had a disastrous season with a 7.03 ERA, 6.5 strikeouts, and 5.6 walks per nine innings while being supported by a bullpen that is 20th in ERA at 4.23. The Reds bullpen is 25th with a 4.54 ERA, but Cincinnati has the far better starting pitcher in Chase Burns, who has a 2.51 ERA with 0.9 home runs and 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. The Reds offense also leads the National League in home runs since the All-Star Break.
Pick: Reds vs. Giants Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners
Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert overall has had a nice season with a 3.35 ERA, 1.2 home runs, and 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings, but has been significantly worse at home with a 4.01 ERA and 1.9 home runs per nine innings allowed compared to a 2.49 ERA with 0.3 home runs per nine innings allowed on the road. Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler has a 2.92 ERA with 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings, but has allowed at least four runs in three of his past five starts and is supported by a bullpen that is 26th in ERA at 4.94 since July 1, while the Mariners bullpen is 29th in ERA in this span at 5.29.
Pick: Phillies vs. Mariners Over 6.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.2
