MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, July 20.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:40 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians
Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan has been more than solid this season with a 2.85 ERA and a 2.78 fielding independent while recording 10.4 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings. However, he is backed by a bullpen that ranks 27th in ERA at 5.04, and the offense is averaging just 3.7 runs per game during the 10-game stretch without Byron Buxton. The Guardians counter with Tanner Bibee, who owns a 3.90 ERA and a 4.82 fielding independent with 6.9 strikeouts and 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings, while being backed by a bullpen that ranks seventh in ERA at 3.73.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline +106
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -103 and Total 8.1
7:05 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees
Pirates starter Braxton Ashcraft owns a 3.49 ERA and a 3.32 fielding independent with 10.2 strikeouts and 2.1 walks per nine innings and faces a Yankees lineup that entered Sunday Night Baseball averaging just 3.3 runs per game over its last 23 games. Yankees starter Ryan Weathers has struggled to keep the ball in the yard, posting a 4.15 ERA while allowing 1.5 home runs per nine innings, and he now faces a Pirates lineup that ranks second in the league in scoring at more than 5.3 runs per game.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline +110
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates +101
7:40 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starter Jacob Misiorowski has been sensational this season, posting a 1.62 ERA with 13.5 strikeouts and 2.2 walks per nine innings, but he missed both his final start before the All-Star break and the All-Star Game. Mets starter Freddy Peralta faces his former team in Milwaukee for the first time and enters on a miserable stretch, posting a 4.66 ERA with a career-low nine strikeouts per nine innings while allowing 23 total runs across 21 1/3 innings over his past five starts.
Pick: Brewers Run Line -1.5 +115 and Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -1.5 -112 and Total 7.7
San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals
Giants starter Trevor McDonald has a 5.02 ERA, but his 4.05 fielding independent with 0.8 home runs and 2.8 walks allowed per nine innings points toward positive regression. Even with the fences moved in at Kauffman Stadium this season, the Royals rank just 20th in scoring at 4.3 runs per game, while the Giants rank 25th at 4.1 runs per game. Royals starter Michael Wacha owns a 3.77 ERA while allowing 1.1 home runs and 2.6 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Royals Moneyline -106 and Under 10.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Royals -128 and Total 9.3
8:05 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros
Astros starter Ronel Blanco is making his first start in more than 22 months following Tommy John surgery. While his 1.06 ERA in five minor league rehab appearances looks impressive, he threw only 17 innings and recorded just 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Meanwhile, the Marlins have the best record in baseball since June 1 at 26-13, and starter Janson Junk owns a 4.57 ERA with a lower 4.26 fielding independent while allowing 1.2 home runs and 2.4 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline +115
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins +104
Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers
Rangers starter Jacob deGrom has uncharacteristically allowed a lot of hard contact this season, surrendering 1.4 home runs per nine innings to raise his ERA to 3.46 despite recording 10.9 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings. White Sox starter Erick Fedde should feel fortunate to own a 4.15 ERA, as his 5.23 fielding independent is paired with just 6.1 strikeouts, 1.5 home runs, and 3.5 walks allowed per nine innings.
Pick: White Sox vs. Rangers Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs
Tigers starter Jack Flaherty owns a 4.48 ERA and will have to battle winds blowing out at Wrigley Field at more than 10 mph, though his 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings and 3.86 fielding independent should help minimize the impact. Cubs starter Jameson Taillon is making his first start since June, posting a 5.19 ERA while allowing 2.7 home runs per nine innings, but he benefits from facing a Tigers lineup that ranks 22nd in road scoring at 4.1 runs per game.
Pick: Tigers vs. Cubs Under 12 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 10.3
8:40 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies
Nationals starter Andrew Alvarez has pitched better than his 4.04 ERA would indicate, posting a 2.97 fielding independent with 9.7 strikeouts and just 0.4 home runs allowed per nine innings. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland owns a 7.36 ERA while allowing 1.8 home runs per nine innings and is backed by a bullpen that ranks 26th in ERA at 4.88. He also faces a Nationals lineup that leads the league in scoring at nearly 5.5 runs per game.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline -114
Greg’s Handicap: Nationals -146
10:10 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Angels
Angels starter Jose Soriano has been significantly worse at home than on the road during his career, posting a 4.63 ERA at home compared to a 3.14 ERA away from home while issuing 4.6 walks per nine innings. He faces a Cardinals lineup that ranks second in the league in road scoring at 5.5 runs per game. Cardinals starter Kyle Leahy owns a 3.73 ERA while allowing 0.9 home runs and 3.3 walks per nine innings and faces an Angels lineup that ranks 27th in home scoring at just 3.8 runs per game.
Pick: Cardinals Moneyline +102
Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals -123
