The second half of the MLB regular season is about to get underway and, before you know it, summer will be shifting to Fall. Week 1 of the 2026 NFL regular season kicks off on September 9th, which means we are less than two months away from opening night. With this in mind, let’s examine how the NFL win total market is shaping up in hopes of picking off a futures value play or two (or three).
All odds and bet splits courtesy of BetMGM.
Rams over 11.5 wins (-140)
The Rams finished 12-5 last season, earning a Wild Card berth out of the NFC West. Los Angeles beat the Panthers 34-31 in the Wild Card Round and edged the Bears 20-17 in overtime in the Divisional Round before losing a heartbreaker to the Seahawks 31-27 in the NFC Championship Game.
Los Angeles loaded up this offseason (particularly on defense), adding stud edge rusher Myles Garrett and cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson via trades and free agency. If that weren’t enough, rumors abound that star defensive tackle Aaron Donald may un-retire and rejoin the team. Most importantly, the Rams return the Super Bowl champion duo of QB Matthew Stafford and head coach Sean McVay.
The Rams win total opened at 10.5 with the over juiced to -140 and have since seen it jump up to 11.5 with the over still juiced at -140. Not only has it risen a full game, but oddsmakers are still forcing bettors to pay a premium to bet the over. The over is receiving 59% of bets and a whopping 95% of dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of smart money banking on the loaded up Rams to win 12 or more games again this season.
Los Angeles’s strength schedule is middle of the pack, as the Rams face the 13th hardest schedule (.516 win percentage).
Bears under 9.5 wins (-120)
The Bears went an impressive 11-6 last season, winning the NFC North and then beating the Packers 31-27 in the Wild Card Round before falling to the Rams 20-17 in overtime in the Divisional Round. However, the betting market expects Chicago to take a bit of a step back this upcoming season.
Chicago’s win total opened at 9.5 wins with the under juiced to -120. Since that time, the under has been juiced further from -120 to -125, signaling additional liability on the under. What’s more, the under is taking in only 29% of bets but a whopping 80% of dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in favor of 9 wins or less.
One big reason for the under action is the fact that Chicago will face the number one toughest schedule this season. Their opponents posted a combined .550 winning percentage based on last year’s won-loss records. Chicago also lost wide receivier D.J. Moore, center Drew Dalman and safety Kevin Byard via trade, retirement and free agency.
Dolphins under 4.5 wins (-130)
The Dolphins went 7-10 last season, finishing in third place in the AFC East and missing the postseason. The betting market expects Miami to be far worse this season, as their win total sits at 4.5, the 2nd lowest in the NFL behind the Arizona Cardinals (3.5).
Miam’s win total opened at 4.5 and still sits at 4.5, but a closer look at the juice and bet splits indicates sharp action on the under. Since opening, the under has been juiced up from -110 to -130, which means oddsmakers are forcing bettors to pay a more expensive price to go under. Even more glaring is the bet split, as 68% of bets and a whopping 98% of dollars are banking on Miami to win 4 games or less.
The Dolphins face the 2nd hardest strength of schedule, with their opponents from last season combining for a .542 win percentage.
The Tua Tagovailoa era is over in South Beach, with Malik Willis now under center after being acquired in a trade. Aside from running back De’Von Achane, Miami is devoid of many offensive weapons. As it stands now, their top three wide receivers are expected to be Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell and Malik Washington.
Other Sharp Win Totals
Raiders over 5.5 wins (+120 to -155), 86% of bets and 94% of dollars on over
Bucs under 8.5 wins (+120 to -130), 66% of bets and 83% of dollars on under
Saints over 7.5 wins (-105 to -125), 84% of bets and 89% of dollars on over
Texans over 9.5 wins (-115 to -125), 88% of bets and 91% of dollars on over
Broncos over 9.5 wins (-115 to -125), 86% of bets and 97% of dollars on over
Lions over 10.5 wins (-125 to -130), 79% of bets and 91% of dollars on over
Bengals over 9.5 wins (-110 to -155), 85% of bets and 97% of dollars on over
