MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, June 29.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:35 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Orioles starting pitcher Shane Baz is allowing only 0.9 home runs per nine innings, but he has a 4.31 ERA with 7.8 strikeouts and 3.4 walks per nine innings. White Sox pitcher Sean Burke, who may start or work behind an opener, owns a 3.71 ERA with nine strikeouts and 1.1 home runs allowed per nine innings. His ERA drops to 3.06 on the road, and he is supported by the stronger bullpen, as the Orioles rank 19th in bullpen ERA at 4.35 while the White Sox rank 17th at 4.25.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline +115
Greg’s Handicap: White Sox -107
7:05 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees
Tigers starting pitcher Casey Mize has been tremendous this season, posting a 2.95 ERA and a 2.78 fielding independent with 0.6 home runs and 2.2 walks allowed per nine innings. Yankees starting pitcher Ryan Weathers has been hit hard, allowing 1.7 home runs per nine innings while posting a 3.95 ERA. He is supported by a Yankees lineup that entered Sunday Night Baseball having scored just 24 total runs over its past 10 games.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline +130
Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -102
7:07 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola has struggled this season, posting a 5.58 ERA with 1.9 home runs and three walks allowed per nine innings. He faces a Pirates offense that ranks fourth in scoring with 5.1 runs per game. The Phillies rank 17th in scoring at fewer than 4.4 runs per game and face Pirates starting pitcher Braxton Ashcraft, who owns a 3.07 ERA and a 2.84 fielding independent with 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings and 10 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline -102
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -116
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Blue Jays starting pitcher Trey Yesavage owns a 3.56 ERA this season. While he has dealt with command issues, issuing 4.5 walks per nine innings, he has allowed only 0.7 home runs per nine innings. He faces a Mets lineup that ranks 29th in road scoring with 3.7 runs per game. Mets starting pitcher Sean Manaea has a 4.87 ERA with 9.3 strikeouts and 3.1 walks per nine innings and faces a Blue Jays lineup that ranks third in fewest strikeouts per at-bat.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline -118
Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -158
7:40 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starting pitcher Robert Gasser owns a 4.50 ERA and a 5.14 fielding independent with 1.8 home runs and 3.6 walks allowed per nine innings. Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo has a 5.59 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings and faces a Brewers lineup that ranks third in scoring with 5.2 runs per game. The Reds also rank 25th in bullpen ERA at 4.73.
Pick: Reds vs. Brewers Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.1
8:05 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs
Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga has been roughed up recently, allowing four runs or more in four of his past six starts. He will also be impacted by winds blowing out at more than 10 mph on Monday, though he benefits from facing a Padres lineup that ranks last in the league in scoring with 3.9 runs per game. Padres starting pitcher Griffin Canning has a 7.38 ERA with 1.7 home runs and 5.5 walks per nine innings, but he is supported by a bullpen that ranks second in the league with a 3.08 ERA.
Pick: Padres vs. Cubs Under 12 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 10.9
8:40 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies
Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara has posted a 4.01 ERA this season while allowing one home run and 2.2 walks per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks fifth in ERA at 3.38. The Rockies rank 27th in bullpen ERA at 4.99 and send rookie Sean Sullivan to the mound. Sullivan owns an 8.25 ERA through his first three MLB starts after posting a 5.60 ERA with the team’s Triple-A affiliate in Albuquerque.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline -122
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -184
9:40 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Eduardo Rodríguez has a sparkling 2.27 ERA, but he appears due for significant regression with a 4.06 fielding independent, 6.6 strikeouts, and 3.6 walks per nine innings. Giants starting pitcher Tyler Mahle owns a 5.49 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 3.8 walks allowed per nine innings and is supported by a bullpen that ranks 18th in ERA at 4.30.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline -130 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -153 and Total 9.2
