MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, August 16.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
12:15 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Rays starting pitcher Freddy Peralta is having the worst season of his career. He has a 5.33 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings. In his last nine starts, he has allowed 43 total runs in 40 1/3 innings and over 2.2 home runs per nine innings. Orioles starting pitcher Trevor Rogers has a 4.21 ERA but a lower 3.61 fielding independent, with 0.9 home runs and 2.6 walks per nine innings. He has been significantly better down the stretch, with the team going 8-4 in his last 12 starts. Rogers has posted a 2.45 ERA in this stretch. Since June 1, the Orioles are seventh in bullpen ERA at 3.47.
Picks: Orioles Moneyline +130 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Orioles +119 and Total 8.3
1:35 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are 3-13 in Paul Skenes’ last six starts. Skenes not throwing a pitch over 97 miles per hour in his most recent start against the Miami Marlins is a concern, but his 2.99 fielding independent with 11.1 strikeouts and 0.9 home runs per nine innings indicates he is pitching better than his 3.88 ERA is showing. Red Sox starting pitcher Patrick Sandoval has a 3.30 ERA with 0.9 home runs and 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen that is number one in the league in ERA at 3.00. The Pirates offense leads the league in scoring at home with 5.4 runs per game.
Picks: Pirates Moneyline -115 and Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -127 and Total 7.7
1:37 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Blue Jays starting pitcher Dylan Cease has been dominant this season with a 2.40 ERA with 0.6 home runs and 13.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a Yankees offense averaging less than 3.35 runs per game in their past 43 games. Yankees starting pitcher Ryan Weathers owns a 3.69 ERA with 1.2 home runs per nine innings, which goes down to a 3.35 ERA with one home run per nine innings on the road. Weathers faces a Blue Jays lineup that is 29th in the league in scoring with 3.9 runs per game.
Picks: Blue Jays -115 and Under 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -144 and Total 6.9
1:40 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians
Though he is now in the National League, Padres starting pitcher Casey Mize has lots of familiarity with Cleveland, as he began the season with the Detroit Tigers and has a lifetime 2.93 ERA in five starts against the Guardians. This season, he owns a 3.38 ERA and 2.89 fielding independent with 0.7 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings. Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee has a 3.99 ERA and 4.51 fielding independent with 1.4 home runs allowed and 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Bibee is supported by a lineup that ranks 28th in scoring with less than four runs per game. The Padres entered Saturday leading the National League in run production since the All-Star Break with 5.9 runs per game.
Picks: Padres Moneyline -105 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Padres -134 and Total 7.7
3:10 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs
The Cubs give Edward Cabrera his first start since June 23. While he has a 5.10 ERA with a career-low 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings, he may have found his swing-and-miss stuff in his three minor league rehab starts, getting 15.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Cardinals starting pitcher Hunter Dobbins has posted a solid 3.40 ERA. While he has a 4.21 fielding independent with 1.2 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings, he should benefit from the wind blowing in during the afternoon at Wrigley Field.
Pick: Cardinals vs Cubs Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.7
4:05 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
In his two starts since joining the Giants starting pitching rotation, Blade Tidwell has impressed with two walks and three runs surrendered across 10 2/3 innings. Rockies starting pitcher Gabriel Hughes has a 5.61 ERA, but has pitched better than the ERA would suggest, with a 3.26 fielding independent and 0.5 home runs per nine innings allowed. The Rockies are last in the National League in bullpen ERA at 4.93.
Pick: Giants Moneyline -125
Greg’s Handicap: Giants -153
4:07 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels
Angels starting pitcher Ryan Johnson has had a brutal season with a 6.71 ERA, 2.3 home runs and 4.4 walks per nine innings. He catches a break facing a Royals offense that ranks last in the league in scoring away from home with 3.6 runs per game. The Angels are last in the league in scoring at home with 3.7 runs per game and less than three runs per game since the All-Star Break. They face a starting pitcher in Noah Cameron who has pitched better than his 4.45 ERA would indicate. Cameron has a 3.71 fielding independent with one home run and 2.9 walks per nine innings, and his ERA dips to 3.78 away from home.
Picks: Royals -115 and Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Royals -123 and Total 8.8
7:20 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
The Mariners entered Saturday 24-37 on the road this season. Starting pitcher Bryan Woo has been a big reason why. Woo has some of the biggest home and road splits of any pitcher in the league, posting a 1.96 ERA with less than 0.6 home runs per nine innings at home compared to a 6.22 ERA away from home with 1.2 home runs allowed per nine innings. Hunter Brown has had command issues with 4.9 walks per nine innings, but has a solid 3.68 ERA. Brown gets to face a Mariners lineup that is last in baseball in scoring with just under 3.9 runs per game. The Astros rank second in the league in bullpen ERA since June 1 at 2.77.
Pick: Astros Moneyline -120
Greg’s Handicap: Astros -149
