WNBA Picks
The Aces fell apart in the fourth quarter yesterday to blow the cover and ultimately lose outright, while the game was never even close to going over the total, so we left Saturday licking our wounds of an 0-2 afternoon. Back on the horse Sunday with a four-game slate featuring the Minnesota Lynx vs. Indiana Fever at 1 p.m. ET, followed by the Portland Fire hosting the LA Sparks at 3:30 p.m. ET, then at 7 p.m. ET we’ve got the Dallas Wings hosting the Connecticut Sun, and at 8:30 p.m. ET it’s the Golden State Valkyries hosting the Toronto Tempo. Here are the TSI projections for Sunday.
Minnesota Lynx (-5.5) vs Indiana Fever, O/U 193.5
I had been writing for seemingly weeks that Minnesota was due some serious regression and would obliterate someone soon; sure enough, the Tempo felt that last game as Minnesota looked like its early season selves again. The regression alert again favors Minnesota here, though, despite them playing 4.5 points better than their season average over the last three games, due to the fact that Indiana has been ten points better over their last three and are potentially going to fall back to Earth any time now. Indiana won the only matchup between these teams 83-72 at Indiana. TSI projects Minnesota -8 with a total of 191.5, and I really like the Lynx here against an Indiana team who’s been four points worse on the road.
Bet: Lynx -5.5 (Play to -6.5)
Portland Fire (-1.5) vs Los Angeles Sparks, O/U 185.5
The big news today is that the Sparks have traded Kelsey Plum to the Mercury, so one has to wonder what kind of psychological effect that may have on her teammates in the short term. Portland comes into this game having played three points below their season average in the last three games, while LA has been about a point above their average lately. LA won the lone matchup between these teams, 89-72 in LA. TSI projects Portland -2 with a total of 191, but when you factor in the regression trends, the fact LA is two points worse on the road, and the Plum trade, I think today is a good day to back Portland.
Bet: Fire -1.5 or better
Dallas Wings (-11.5) vs Connecticut Sun, O/U 173.5
Both of these teams are due for some positive regression soon, as Dallas has been 5.5 points worse than its season average over the last three games and Connecticut has been seven points worse than its average. Dallas has been six points better at home while the Sun have been six points worse on the road. These teams have played just once and Dallas won 86-83. TSI projects Dallas -10.5 with a total of 175.5. I don’t have an official play but I’d lean Dallas here to take care of business at home.
Golden State Valkyries (-13.5) vs Toronto Tempo, O/U 165.5
The biggest story here is that Marina Mabrey is questionable for Toronto, which obviously has a huge impact on the side and total because she’s the primary weapon for Toronto. This is again another game where both teams are due to positively regress, as the Valkyries have been seven points worse over their last three games and the Tempo have been eleven points worse, thanks largely to a beatdown at the hands of the Lynx. In the one matchup between these teams, Golden State won 83-75. TSI projects Valkyries -12 with a total of 176, but Mabrey’s status is enough to keep me off this game.
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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