MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, May 17.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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12:15 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Marlins starting pitcher Eury Perez has struggled this season, posting a 4.94 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 4.6 walks per nine innings. The crux of his issues has come on the road, where his ERA rises to 6.52 with nearly 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings. Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen owns a 3.16 ERA, but a higher 3.71 fielding independent with 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings and has allowed at least three total runs in four of his past five starts.
Pick: Marlins vs. Rays Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.8
1:35 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler has looked like his normal self in four starts since returning from the injured list, posting a 2.55 ERA with 0.4 home runs and 2.2 walks allowed per nine innings. Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes is in peak form, allowing zero or one run in eight of his past nine starts while posting a 1.98 ERA and 2.50 fielding independent with 0.7 home runs and 1.3 walks allowed per nine innings. He also faces a Phillies lineup that ranks 26th in road scoring with 3.7 runs per game.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline -130 and Under 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -146 and Total 6.6
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals
Orioles starting pitcher Brandon Young owns a 4.15 ERA this season, but he has allowed at least three runs in three of his past four starts and carries a 4.90 fielding independent with 1.4 home runs and 3.8 walks allowed per nine innings. Nationals starting pitcher Miles Mikolas has ugly overall season numbers with a 7.00 ERA, but he has allowed three runs or fewer in seven straight appearances and is backed by a lineup that ranks second in scoring with 5.3 runs per game.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline +115 and Under 10.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Nationals -101 and Total 9.3
1:40 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians
Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer has struggled this season, posting a 5.79 ERA with 2.4 home runs allowed per nine innings, but he should benefit from facing a Guardians lineup that ranks 26th in home scoring with 3.9 runs per game and is 25th in home runs per at-bat at home. Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams owns a 3.74 ERA with 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings and notable home-road splits, posting a 2.39 ERA with 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings on the road while carrying a 4.97 ERA with 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings at home.
Pick: Reds vs. Guardians Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.6
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers
It has been a shaky start to the season for Tigers starting pitcher Jack Flaherty, who owns a 5.73 ERA with 6.9 walks per nine innings, though he is also recording 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman has a 3.86 ERA with 1.1 home runs and 1.6 walks allowed per nine innings, but he is backed by a lineup that ranks 26th in road scoring with 3.7 runs per game. Meanwhile, the Tigers are averaging 4.7 runs per game at home, which ranks 10th in the league.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline +121
Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -103
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets
The Yankees are sending Elmer Rodriguez to the mound for his third career start. In his first two starts, he posted a 5.19 ERA while issuing eight walks in 8 2/3 innings. Rodriguez benefits from facing a Mets lineup that ranks 27th in scoring with 3.7 runs per game, while the Yankees bullpen ranks sixth in ERA at 3.35. Mets starting pitcher Freddy Peralta owns a 3.10 ERA with 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings, but he faces a Yankees lineup that ranks fifth in scoring with just under 5.1 runs per game.
Pick: Yankees vs. Mets Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.6
2:10 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox
White Sox starting pitcher Erick Fedde owns a 3.77 ERA this season, but his 6.03 fielding independent with 2.1 home runs allowed per nine innings and only 5.4 strikeouts per nine innings points toward regression. The Cubs rank third in the league in scoring with 5.1 runs per game. Cubs starting pitcher Colin Rea has also seen regression, allowing 15 total runs over his past four starts to raise his ERA to 4.68 with 1.3 home runs and 2.8 walks allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Cubs vs. White Sox Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.2
2:15 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals starting pitcher Andre Pallante has been serviceable this season with a 4.46 ERA and 1.1 home runs allowed per nine innings. He benefits from facing a Royals lineup that ranks last in the league in road scoring with just over 3.1 runs per game. Royals starting pitcher Alec Marsh has struggled to a 6.75 ERA in a small sample size of two starts this season after posting a 3.51 ERA with 0.7 home runs and 2.5 walks allowed per nine innings last year. The Cardinals also rank ninth in scoring with just over 4.6 runs per game.
Pick: Royals vs. Cardinals Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2
