On Sunday, May 17, Jannik Sinner’s historic run continues with a meeting with Casper Ruud in the finals of the 2026 Internazionali BNL d’Italia. Sinner has won a record number of consecutive 1000-level matches, and a win in this final would give the Italian the Career Golden Masters. That would mean titles in all nine of the ATP’s Masters 1000 events, and Sinner would be the youngest player to accomplish that feat. He’d also be the only player outside of Novak Djokovic to do so. That said, Ruud is up against a lot in this one, but the Norwegian also has the benefit of playing with nothing to lose. Keep reading to get an idea of how we see it playing out.
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Jannik Sinner vs. Casper Ruud Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Saturday, May 16 at 3:00 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Sinner -670, Ruud +461
Spread: Sinner -5.5 Games (-110), Ruud +5.5 Games (-110)
Total: Over 19.5 Games (-135), Under 19.5 Games (-110)
How To Watch Jannik Sinner vs. Casper Ruud
Where: Foro Italico in Rome, Italy
When: Sunday, May 17
Channel: Tennis Channel / Tennis Channel App
Jannik Sinner vs. Casper Ruud Predictions
It’s hard to imagine Sinner’s quest for history being denied in Rome. His level over the last couple of months has been remarkable, and his motivation will be through the roof as he plays in front of an Italian crowd. However, winning and winning by more than 5.5 games are two completely different things. Also, Sinner was dealing with some physical issues on Friday, meaning he might not be 100% coming into this one.
With Sinner dealing with a lot of pressure — and possibly a lot of pain — Ruud should be able to go out there and play freely. Well, when you combine that with the Norwegian’s tremendous form, a competitive loss seems like a reasonable expectation here.
Of course, Sinner did beat Ruud 6-0, 6-1 when these two met in Rome last year. That was a lopsided result that could be hard for Ruud to flush heading into this one. However, that was a physically fresh Sinner going up against an out-of-form Ruud. This version of the Norwegian is firing on all cylinders.
Nobody has played quite as well as Sinner in Rome. That’s backed up by the Performance Rating numbers at TennisViz. Through five matches, Sinner has been virtually flawless with a Performance Rating of 9.12. However, Ruud’s Performance Rating of 8.37 gives him the second-best mark of anyone in the field.
The only big concern here is the backhand wing. Ruud’s spin-heavy backhand has only been good for a Backhand Quality of 7.57 through five matches here. Well, Sinner’s backhand has been graded at 8.91, and he can do some damage by pounding his two-hander towards the Ruud two-hander. But if Ruud is holding up well everywhere else, I do believe he can avoid embarrassment here — and possibly even steal a set. Ruud is still a top-five player in the world when playing on red clay, and he’s looking as sharp as ever as he gears up for the French Open.
The sharp money also appears to be on Ruud in this match. Our VSiN tennis splits show one-sided action on the Italian, but the price to back Sinner has plummeted. That’s never a bad thing to see when your matchup analysis already favors the sharp side.
Bet: Ruud +5.5 Games (-110)
