MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, July 21.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:40 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Dodgers starting pitcher Justin Wrobleski has been a master at inducing soft contact this season, allowing just 0.7 home runs per nine innings while posting a 2.67 ERA, though his 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings are a concern. Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler has been dominant, registering a 2.13 ERA with 10.5 strikeouts and 2.1 walks per nine innings while allowing two runs or fewer in 12 of his 15 starts this season.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline -135
Greg’s Handicap: Phillies -147
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians
Guardians starting pitcher Parker Messick has been reliable this season, posting a 2.73 ERA with 0.8 home runs allowed and 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings. The Twins are expected to either start minor leaguer Jack Anderson, who would be making his MLB debut, or use a bullpen game. It is a classic case of something having to give, with the Guardians averaging fewer than 3.5 runs per game over their last 37 games entering Tuesday, while the Twins rank 27th in bullpen ERA at 5.04.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline -148 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -184 and Total 7.7
7:07 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen has been superb, posting a 3.26 ERA with 8.9 strikeouts and just 1.5 walks per nine innings. While the Blue Jays rank 29th in the league in scoring at four runs per game, they also rank third in the fewest strikeouts per at-bat, which should provide a boost offensively. Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman has struggled recently, allowing at least six runs in three of his past starts, raising his ERA to 4.33.
Pick: Rays vs. Blue Jays Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2
7:15 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves
Padres starting pitcher Walker Buehler has pitched better than his 5.36 ERA would indicate, posting a 4.35 fielding independent while allowing 1.2 home runs per nine innings. He is backed by a lineup that entered Sunday ranked last in the league in scoring at 3.9 runs per game before erupting for 19 runs against the Royals. Braves starter Reynaldo Lopez owns a 3.50 ERA despite a 4.30 fielding independent with 7.9 strikeouts and 3.6 walks per nine innings. Atlanta ranks first in the National League in bullpen ERA at 3.13, while San Diego ranks third at 3.68.
Pick: Padres vs. Braves Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.8
8:05 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs
Cubs starting pitcher David Peterson owns a sky-high 6.45 ERA, but his 4.28 fielding independent with one home run allowed per nine innings points toward positive regression and should benefit from winds of more than 10 mph expected to blow in at Wrigley Field. Tigers starter Framber Valdez is recording a career-low 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings but still owns a respectable 4.10 ERA while allowing just 0.9 home runs per nine innings. He is backed by a lineup that ranks 22nd in road scoring at 4.1 runs per game.
Pick: Tigers vs. Cubs Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.3
9:40 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners
Reds starting pitcher Chase Burns has been outstanding this season, posting a 2.56 ERA with 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing 1.1 home runs per nine innings for a 3.40 fielding independent. He also benefits from facing a Mariners lineup that ranks 28th in scoring at four runs per game. Mariners starter Luis Castillo has struggled to a 4.93 ERA, though his 4.16 fielding independent and 1.2 home runs allowed per nine innings suggest better results should be ahead.
Pick: Reds Moneyline -102
Greg’s Handicap: Reds -132
