MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, July 8.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
3:45 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants
Blue Jays starting pitcher Dylan Cease has been dominant with a 2.76 ERA and a 2.26 fielding independent, recording 13.6 strikeouts per nine innings. However, his 4.1 walks per nine innings leave him vulnerable to an early exit. The Blue Jays bullpen ranks 11th in ERA at 3.80. Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb has a 3.68 ERA overall this season, but he has been a different pitcher since coming off the injured list, posting a 2.18 ERA with 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings over his past seven starts. For his career, Webb owns a 2.88 ERA at home while allowing fewer than 0.5 home runs per nine innings.
Pick: Giants Moneyline -102
Greg’s Handicap: Giants -130
6:35 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles
Orioles starting pitcher Dean Kremer has a small sample size of just three starts, but he has posted a solid 3.18 ERA with 10.6 strikeouts and 1.6 walks per nine innings. Cubs starting pitcher Colin Rea owns a 4.74 ERA with 6.9 strikeouts and 3.4 walks per nine innings and faces an Orioles lineup that ranks 11th in home scoring with 4.8 runs per game.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline -116 and Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Orioles -133 and Total 9.6
6:40 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates lead the league in home scoring with 5.5 runs per game, while the Braves rank fourth in road scoring with more than 5.1 runs per game. Atlanta sends Grant Holmes to the mound, and he owns a 3.83 ERA with a 5.21 fielding independent while allowing 1.6 home runs and 4.2 walks per nine innings. Pirates starter Jared Jones has a 5.28 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings and is backed by a bullpen that ranks 22nd in ERA at 4.36. Meanwhile, the Braves lead the league in bullpen ERA at 2.98.
Pick: Braves Moneyline +107 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -104 and Total 9.1
Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins
Mariners starting pitcher George Kirby owns a 3.81 ERA with a lower 3.36 fielding independent while allowing 0.9 home runs and 2.1 walks per nine innings. Marlins starter Tyler Phillips has a 3.52 ERA but a higher 4.55 fielding independent and issues 4.2 walks per nine innings. He benefits from facing a Mariners lineup that ranks 24th in scoring with 4.1 runs per game. Both bullpens are strong, as the Mariners rank fifth with a 3.54 ERA and the Marlins rank eighth at 3.76.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline +118 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins +106 and Total 7.6
6:45 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals
Astros starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti has allowed at least three runs in five of his past six starts and now owns a 3.81 ERA with a 4.64 fielding independent while allowing 1.2 home runs and 4.4 walks per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 20th in ERA at 4.28. The Nationals lead the league in scoring with 5.4 runs per game and counter with Foster Griffin, who owns a 2.87 ERA and a 4.27 fielding independent while allowing 1.5 home runs per nine innings. The Nationals bullpen ranks 28th in ERA at 5.08.
Pick: Astros vs. Nationals Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.8
7:05 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole has not looked like himself this season, posting a 4.01 ERA with a 4.40 fielding independent while allowing 1.7 home runs per nine innings. Rays starter Shane McClanahan owns a 3.05 ERA with 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing just 0.7 home runs per nine innings. He also faces a Yankees lineup that entered Tuesday having scored only 51 runs over its past 17 games.
Pick: Rays Moneyline -123
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -144
7:40 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox
Red Sox starting pitcher Jake Bennett owns a 3.10 ERA and a 3.14 fielding independent with 0.7 home runs and 1.5 walks allowed per nine innings. White Sox starter Davis Martin has a 3.08 ERA and a matching 3.08 fielding independent while allowing just 0.6 home runs per nine innings. Martin has been especially sharp at home, posting a 0.88 ERA with only 0.2 home runs allowed per nine innings. He faces a Red Sox lineup that ranks 26th in scoring with 4.1 runs per game, while the White Sox rank ninth with 4.8 runs per game.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline -118
Greg’s Handicap: White Sox -144
7:45 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals starting pitcher Michael McGreevy owns a sparkling 3.12 ERA but appears due for regression with a 4.32 fielding independent while recording only 5.7 strikeouts per nine innings. Brewers starter Kyle Harrison has been outstanding with a 2.82 ERA while allowing one home run and 2.3 walks per nine innings and recording 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings. He is supported by a lineup that ranks fourth in scoring with 5.1 runs per game and a bullpen that ranks fourth in ERA at 3.48, while the Cardinals bullpen ranks 16th at 4.14.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline -126
Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -148
8:05 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers
Rangers starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore has pitched better than his 4.31 ERA would indicate, posting a 3.45 fielding independent while allowing just 0.8 home runs per nine innings. However, he is backed by a bullpen that has ranked just 21st in ERA (4.30) since May 1. The Angels counter with Walbert Urena, who owns a 3.03 ERA but a higher 3.88 fielding independent while issuing 4.8 walks per nine innings. He is supported by an offense averaging 4.8 runs per game on the road.
Pick: Angels vs. Rangers Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.3
10:10 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Jose Cabrera owns a 4.73 ERA and a 5.86 fielding independent through his first three career starts while allowing two home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings. Padres starter Michael King appears due for regression despite his 3.52 ERA, as he owns a 4.10 fielding independent with 7.7 strikeouts and 3.6 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Diamondbacks vs. Padres Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.6
