Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for April 21. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Tuesday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Tuesday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. That’s also where you’ll find any late adds to my card.
Dustin May Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-125 – 1.5 units) vs. Marlins
Cardinals at Marlins – 6:40 pm ET
May got lit up in his first two starts of the year, but he has been excellent in his last two trips to the mound. May pitched 6.0 innings of one-run ball against the Red Sox on April 10, then he followed it up with another 6.0 innings of one-run ball against the Guardians on April 15. Well, those two games had something in common, and that’s that the totals in both were 9.0 or fewer. That’s worth noting because tonight’s total is just 8.5. May will also be facing a Marlins team that isn’t anything special offensively. I can’t say with certainty that I see May going out there and blanking Miami completely. However, I do feel good about the 28-year-old pitching into the sixth or seventh inning. Also, one of the systems I have been working with for props lately has this as a very, very strong match, which is why I’m going bigger on it.
Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 Total Bases (-145) vs. Reds
Reds at Rays – 6:40 pm ET
I haven’t been rewarded for putting my faith in Aranda lately, but I do think he’ll get at least one hit tonight. Last year, when playing at home against right-handed pitching, Aranda had at least one total base in 28 of his 35 games. Well, that’s the situation we have here tonight, as Chase Burns will be on the mound for the Reds. Burns does have some intriguing stuff, and he has pitched well this year. But I can’t turn away from Aranda at this number. It’s up in the -165 to -185 range at most shops, but -145 is available. You can also find a -150 if you can’t find this.
Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-115) vs. Pirates
Pirates at Rangers – 8:05 pm ET
Nimmo has had at least two combined hits, runs, and RBIs in 13 of the 20 games he has played this season, so the lefty slugger is enjoying being part of this Rangers organization. Well, in tonight’s game, Nimmo gets to go up against righty Carmen Mlodzinski, who is extremely beatable. Last year, Mlodzinski struggled in road starts, and he also preferred pitching in afternoon games. So, this isn’t the ideal setting for the 27-year-old, and Nimmo generally tees off when he isn’t going up against southpaws. So, at -115 odds, I’m trusting in Nimmo to come through at the plate once again.
Additional Best Bets
Jahmai Jones Over 0.5 Total Bases (-130) vs. Brewers
Tyler Stephenson Over 0.5 Total Bases (-140) vs. Rays
Trevor Story Over 1.5 Total Bases (+158) vs. Yankees
Nasim Nunez Over 0.5 Total Bases (-105) vs. Braves
Jonah Heim Over 0.5 Total Bases (-140) vs. Nationals
Michael Massey Over 0.5 Total Bases (-150) vs. Orioles
Blaze Alexander Over Total Bases (-135) vs. Royals
Patrick Corbin Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+105) vs. Angels
Merrill Kelly Oer 4.5 Strikeouts (-120) vs. White Sox
Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+140) vs. Dodgers
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Ryan Weiss Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+123) vs. Guardians
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 5.67 strikeouts, suggesting these odds should be -444 — a +36.8% edge to the Over.
Jahmai Jones Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+121) vs. Brewers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 2.31 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -205 — a +21.9% edge to the Over.
Brandon Marsh Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-139) vs. Cubs
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.58 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -385 — a +21.2% edge to the Over.
