Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, April 21, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 473-535 SU but for +74.05 units (ROI: 7.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+139 at NYM), PHILADELPHIA (+104 at CHC)
Trend: Home teams are 15-23 (39.5%, -14.70 units) in the last 38 games between the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays
— The ROI on this trend is -38.7%.
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (-115 vs. TOR)
* CHECK OUT FIRST BULLPEN SYSTEM BELOW *
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating went 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%. The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices typically aren’t that high. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, success continues, as these teams are off to a strong 48-28 start, with +11.62 units and an ROI of +15.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-126 vs. NYY), NY METS (-168 vs. MIN), TORONTO (-105 at LAA), SEATTLE (-168 vs. ATH)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go-against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 9-13 for -5.05 units and an ROI of -23%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-118 vs. STL), TEXAS (-115 vs. PIT)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a 47-27 start for +6.13 units and an ROI of 8.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-126 vs. NYY), LA DODGERS (-186 at SF)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle. For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 22-27 for +7.51 units. I don’t expect this to last long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (+123 at CLE), LA ANGELS (-115 vs. TOR)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%. After a solid +8.13 unit week, the 2026 season is off to a decent start, 43-41 for +7.49 units (8.9% ROI).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-105 at DET), BALTIMORE (+102 at KC), TORONTO (-105 at LAA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 5-16 for -10.54 units and an ROI of -50.2%.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (+104 at BOS)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it comes off a phenomenal week of -11.16 units, and the overall season record is now 20-28 for -4.56 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+139 at NYM), KANSAS CITY (-122 vs. BAL), PHILADELPHIA (+104 at CHC), LA ANGELS (-115 vs. TOR)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 14-17 for -9.32 units.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-168 vs. MIN)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 448-365 for +27.49 units and an ROI of 3.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (+104 at BOS)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 136-174 for -35.30 units and an ROI of -11.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+119 vs. SD)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 378-322 but for -78.47 units and an ROI of -11.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-112 vs. MIL), NY METS (-168 vs. MIN), TEXAS (-115 vs. PIT)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 407-348 record for +56.50 units and an ROI of 7.5% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (+104 at BOS), PITTSBURGH (-105 at TEX), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+129 at AZ), LA DODGERS (-186 at SF)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 436-419 (51%) for +19.80 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.3%.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-149 vs. HOU)
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter whether the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 2,018-1,905 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -258.32 units. This represents an ROI of -6.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (+123 at CLE), ATLANTA (-136 at WSH), LA DODGERS (-186 at SF)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,021-2,577 (44%) for -255.08 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (-143 at COL), PHILADELPHIA (+104 at CHC)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4,083-3,548 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -514.76 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-126 vs. NYY), DETROIT (-112 vs. MIL), MIAMI (-118 vs. STL), KANSAS CITY (-126 vs. BAL), CHICAGO CUBS (-126 vs. PHI)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams that lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record of 182-214 SU record for +40.67 units and an ROI of 10.3% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+119 vs. SD)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 215-246 SU but for +46.60 units (ROI: 10.1%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+119 vs. SD)
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 473-535 SU but for +74.05 units (ROI: 7.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+139 at NYM), ST LOUIS (-102 at MIA), PHILADELPHIA (+104 at CHC)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 71-146 skid (-42.95 units, ROI: -19.8%).
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on skids have gone 18-22 (+9.01 units, ROI: 22.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 94-178 (-63.03 units, ROI: -23.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
Systems Match (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (-126 vs. BAL), NY METS (-168 vs. MIN)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 239-159 in their last 398 tries (+34.36 units, ROI: 8.6%).
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-126 vs. PHI)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 145-145 (-59.99 units, ROI: -20.7%) in the next game since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-136 at WSH), CHICAGO CUBS (-126 vs. PHI)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA -156 (+41 diff), DETROIT -115 (+21), SAN DIEGO -149 (+18), KANSAS CITY -122 (+17), CHICAGO CUBS -126 (+16), MIAMI -118 (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PIT-TEX OVER 8.5 (+0.5), ATH-SEA OVER 7.5 (+0.5), LAD-SF OVER 7 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CWS-AZ UNDER 9 (-1.0)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(905) PHILADELPHIA (8-14) at (906) CHICAGO-NL (13-9)
Trend: CHC is 30-13 (+11.83 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-126 vs. PHI)
(909) LOS ANGELES-NL (16-6) at (910) SAN FRANCISCO (9-13)
Trend: SF is 2-6 (-4.21 units) versus divisional opponents with starter Landen Roupp
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+153 vs. LAD)
(915) BALTIMORE (11-12) at (916) KANSAS CITY (7-16)
Trend: Shane Baz’s teams are 20-11 (+9.25 units) within the -130 to +125 line range since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+104 at KC)
(917) TORONTO (9-13) at (918) LOS ANGELES-AL (11-13)
Trend: Patrick Corbin’s teams are 9-13 (-3.53 units) as night underdogs between line range of -105 to +120 in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-105 at LAA)
(925) MINNESOTA (11-11) at (926) NEW YORK-NL (7-15)
Trend: Under the total is 16-8 (+7.04 units) when MIN is a plus-money underdog with starter Simeon Woods-Richardson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-NYM (o/u at 7.5)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trend
Series #2: Toronto at LA Angels, Mon 4/21-Wed 4/23
Trend: Home teams are 15-23 (39.5%, -14.70 units) in the last 38 games between the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays
— The ROI on this trend is -38.7%.
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (-115 vs. TOR)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, DETROIT, NY METS, PITTSBURGH, ARIZONA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: A unique system has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, NY METS, KANSAS CITY, SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
— Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 UNITS and an ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, DETROIT, BOSTON, NY METS, KANSAS CITY, CHICAGO CUBS, SEATTLE, ARIZONA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and, of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BAL-KC, TOR-LAA
Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Friday, April 24)
