Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (-115, 7.5) at Tampa Bay Rays
The Reds (15-8) won last night’s Interleague series opener 6-1, coming through as +105 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Reds tap righty Chase Burns (1-1, 2.42 ERA) and the Rays (12-10) rebuttal with lefty Steven Matz (3-0, 3.80 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have quietly sided with Cincinnati at a coin-flip price, pushing the Reds up from a -110 road pick’em to a -115 road favorite. Essentially, we are seeing “pick’em to favorite” wiseguy action in favor of Cincinnati.
At Circa, the Reds are receiving 40% of moneyline bets and 45% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “fade the trendy dog” bet discrepancy in their favor.
We’ve also seen a flood of run-line action come down in support of the Reds (-1.5 at +150), with Cincinnati receiving 39% of spread bets and 74% of spread dollars at DraftKings and 50% of spread bets and 91% of spread dollars at Circa. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of the Reds winning by two runs or more.
Cincinnati has betting system value and correlative betting value as an Interleague favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Reds are 9-2 on the road this season, the best road record in MLB.
6:45 p.m. ET: New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (-125, 8.5)
The Yankees (13-9) just swept the Royals, winning the series finale 7-0 as -155 home favorites. On the other hand, the Red Sox (9-13) just split a four-game series with the Tigers, winning yesterday’s series finale 8-6 as -135 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Yankees start righty Luis Gil (0-1, 7.00 ERA) and the Red Sox turn to lefty Connelly Early (1-0, 2.29 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -115 road favorite and Boston a -105 home dog.
The public is happy to back the Bronx Bombers. However, despite New York receiving 71% of moneyline bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Boston flip from a -105 home dog to a -125 home favorite. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” reverse line movement in favor of the Red Sox.
At DraftKings, Boston is taking in 29% of moneyline bets but 52% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Red Sox are taking in 39% of moneyline bets and a whopping 70% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Red Sox to earn a series opening win at Fenway Park.
When both teams are coming off a win, as is the case here, the home favorite in the opening game of a new series has gone 167-104 (62%) with a 3% ROI since 2024.
Early has allowed 1 earned run or fewer in four of his five starts this season.
New York is only hitting .185 against lefties, ranking 28th out of 30 MLB teams.
7:40 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs (-125, 8.5)
The Cubs (13-9) took last night’s series opener 5-1, cruising as -115 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Phillies (8-14) send out lefty Jesus Luzardo (1-3, 7.94 ERA) and the Cubs counter with fellow southpaw Shota Imanaga (1-1, 2.45 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -120 home favorite and Philadelphia a +100 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Cubs laying short chalk at home, driving the Cubs up from -120 to -125, with a few other books inching up to -130.
At Circa, the Cubs are taking in 90% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars, a heavy one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe split in their favor.
Sweet spot home favorites between -125 and -140 who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous season, like the Cubs here, have gone 38-16 (70%) with a 24% ROI since 2025.
Chicago has the better bats, hitting .251 with 117 runs scored and a .342 OBP compared to Philadelphia hitting .220 with 76 runs scored and a .301 OBP.
The Cubs are 6-3 in night games. The Phillies are 4-9.
Chicago is hitting .263 against lefties (6th) while the Philadelphia is hitting just .176 (29th).
The Phillies are 1-3 in Luzardo’s four starts this season. Meanwhile, Imanaga has posted a 1.06 ERA in his last three starts, allowing only 2 earned runs in 17 innings pitched.
