MLB Best Bets Today October 8
The first night game in the Guardians vs. White Sox series was made possible by Tampa Bay’s sweep of New York on Wednesday night, as three of the four Division Series wrapped up. The Rays went to the Bronx and held down the New York offense once again with a 4-3 win and a trip to the ALCS for the first time since the 2020 COVID year in which they made it to the World Series and lost in six games to the Dodgers.
Speaking of the Dodgers, they’ll officially take on the Brewers and I’ll have that series preview coming up today. The Rays wait to see whether or not they will know their opponent for Monday’s series opener. The Dodgers and Brewers will enjoy a day of rest to get rid of some celebratory road hangovers.
Throughout the playoffs, I’ll look at every game on the schedule, even if I don’t have any bets. I’ll typically do this on the morning of the games, trying to achieve as much lead time as possible. Bullpen usage is critically important in the postseason, so I’d be doing a major disservice to do anything before the games are finished and that usually means writing up my thoughts in the morning.
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Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for October 8:
Guardians (-120, 7.5) vs. White Sox Prediction
8 p.m. ET
Parker Messick made one mistake in Game 1 and Munetaka Murakami hit it 440 feet. Against the Guardians lineup, one blast can be enough sometimes and it was that day. But, we saw signs of #GuardsBall return on Wednesday to extend the series at least another day. The Guardians actually made a good amount of loud contact, and their .247 xBA was their highest of the series per Statcast. But, it was two balls down the line, one 82.8 mph and the other 101.3 mph that provided a two-run insurance double and a bases-clearing three-run triple.
All hands are on deck again here for the White Sox, as Hagen Smith will start and a cavalcade of relievers will follow. Chicago used eight different pitchers yesterday, opting for a lot of low-leverage guys in Noah Schultz, Tyler Davis, David Sandlin, and Davis Martin. My guess is that we see Erick Fedde at some point today. I think this could be a one-inning appearance for Smith, who threw 51 pitches on Saturday and then 21 pitches yesterday. He looked pretty fatigued by the end of that Game 1 appearance and didn’t look too lively yesterday with two hard-hit balls allowed.
Grant Taylor, who threw 42 pitches in shutting down Saturday’s game and just seven pitches in Game 2, was not used in Game 3, so he’s well-rested and I would expect him to feature prominently by the sixth or seventh inning if it’s a tie game or the White Sox have a late lead. Jordan Hicks is also well-rested. So is Anthony Kay, as his start on Monday didn’t go well.
Cleveland used seven relievers on Wednesday and 19 of the 27 outs required to finish off the game were strikeouts, including five from Cade Smith over his two innings. The Guardians don’t necessarily believe in days of usage; they believe in pitch counts over time. Smith was able to get six outs in fewer than 20 pitches and he’s definitely available today. I think there’s a chance we see a Matt Festa appearance at some point, as he hasn’t worked yet in the series.
Messick racked up 13 swings and misses in his Game 1 start, but did allow seven hard-hit balls and an average exit velocity of 99.2 mph. His velo started to drop off in the fifth, which is why Stephen Vogt went and yanked him, but by “dropped”, it was still above his season average. It just wasn’t the 96.4, 96.3, or 97 that he averaged over the first three innings. Fifty-two of Messick’s 61 pitches to righties were fastballs or changeups. I do wonder if we’ll see something with more horizontal movement as an adjustment here, given how bad the White Sox looked against sweepers and sliders from lefties Foster Griffin and Tim Herrin. Messick only threw five sliders and three curveballs in that first start.
This game is probably a little bit closer to a toss-up than the line would indicate, especially with some good swings off of Messick in Game 1. He had six strikeouts, but the hard contact and a rising pitch count limited him to 4.1 innings. The Guardians are thin in middle relief in my opinion, so that’s where I have concerns, especially with shaky outings for Erik Sabrowski and Hunter Gaddis thus far.
A couple of player props I like here, since I don’t have a side or total play. Messick 7+ Strikeouts is +125 at DraftKings. Cleveland seems to have cracked the code to get the White Sox to swing and miss. In Game 1, Chicago had 25 Whiffs. In Game 2, Gavin Williams had 22 Whiffs alone, as the team had 27 in total. In Game 3, 27, but the Guardians got a lot of them at the right time to rack up those 19 punchies.
Another one is Miguel Vargas 1+ Walks at +113. He’s drawn five walks in the series so far. I think he’s the guy that the Guardians most fear because they keep running into circumstances where he’s facing a lefty, a split where he posted a .271/.391/.535 slash with a 16.8% BB% and a 16.8% K%. I’ve seen some really good takes from him in this series.
Picks: Parker Messick (CLE) 7+ Strikeouts (+125); Miguel Vargas (CHW) 1+ Walks (+113)
