Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, October 8, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Since 2013, divisional round team following a same series game in which they scored 7 runs or more have gone 43-32 SU (+13.6 units, ROI: 18.1%).
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-116 at CWS)
Trend: UNDER the total is 18-5-1 (+12.45 units) in NIGHT games with starter Parker Messick in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-CWS (o/u at 7.5)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
BACK teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the ’25 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and a ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and a ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For ’26, these teams just above the profitability line at 219-178 for +0.13 units, but at +0.03% ROI, still WAY better than the average loss (0-1, -1.57 units in the playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-116 at CWS)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the ’25 season. This represents a ROI of +5.4%. For ’26, these teams got off to a slow start but roared back in the season’s final month, ending the campaign with a record of 318-216 for +8.23 units and a ROI of +1.5% (7-5, -0.61 units in the playoffs).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CLEVELAND (-116 at CWS)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in ‘26
In the 2026 regular season, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge fared quite well. Last season this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For ’26, these teams finished 266-187 for +45.33 units, an ROI of +10% (1-0, +1.00 unit in the playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-116 at CWS)
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
Notable Postseason Team Trends (since ’15)
* CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 9-3 OVER +5.68 units
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-CWS (o/u at 7.5)
Line angles
In that same span since ’01, shorter ROAD FAVORITES of less than -140 have gone 58-67 for -24.79 units (ROI: -19.8%)
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-116 at CWS)
Coming off wins/losses
HOME TEAMS coming off a LOSS in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 67-68 SU (-19.15 units, ROI: -14.2%) since ‘16.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-104 vs CLE)
Series wins status
For teams leading in a series, HOME FIELD advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 79-57 SU (+11.05 units, ROI: 8.1%) and 70-66 on run lines (+14.66 units, ROI: 10.8%) since ’13.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Stats from last game trends
Teams playing as UNDERDOGS (or pick ’em) in an MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 45-69 SU (-13.22 units, ROI: -11.6%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-104 vs CLE)
Totals angles
The last four MLB postseasons have been VERY good for OVER bettors, as that side of the total has gone 111-107-3, and OVER’s have produced a return of +18.91 units, an ROI of 8.7%.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-CWS (o/u at 7.5)
Divisional Round angles
Home field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 73-54 SU (+2.01 units, ROI: 1.6%) and 64-63 on run lines (+7.40 units, ROI: 5.8%) since ‘15.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX
2013, the number 7 has been key in terms of run scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same series game in which they scored 7 runs or more, teams are 43-32 SU (+13.6 units, ROI: 18.1%).
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-116 at CWS)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB Betting Trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where on Under projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 129-105 for +10.85 units and a ROI of 4.6%.
Ratings Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-CWS (o/u at 7.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(945) CLEVELAND (86-79) at (946) CHICAGO-AL (88-79)
Trend: Under the total is 18-5-1 (+12.45 units) in NIGHT games with starter Parker Messick in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-CWS (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: CLE is the most profitable team in the MLB in ROAD games this season (45-37 record for +12.13 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-116 at CWS)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 AM ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority HANDLE bettors have endured three consecutive poor PLAYOFF seasons in 2023-2025, with a combined record of 64-64 (50%) for -19.84 UNITS and an ROI of -15.5% (14-9, +1.80 units in 2026).
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-116 at CWS)
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