The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, October 26, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board. 

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

–World Series teams have struggled putting back-to-back wins together recently, going 8-21 in the game following up a WS win (-17.75 Units, -61.2% ROI)
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-142 vs. NYY)

Trend: Yoshinobu Yamamoto good start vs. NYY back in early June (7.0 IP, 2 HA, 0 ER)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-142 vs. NYY)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 UNITS and an ROI of -26.3%.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES 

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to STEVE MAKINEN STRENGTH RATINGS: NYY-LAD UNDER 9 (-0.9 difference)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): NY YANKEES 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 UNITS and an ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high-volume set of games, so bettors lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

NO QUALIFYING BULLPEN SYSTEMS TODAY 

Line Angles
Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, as they are just 72-72 SU (-30.41 units, ROI: -21.1%)
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-142 vs. NYY)

Series Wins Status
For teams leading in a series, home-field advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 68-47 SU (+13.99 units, ROI: 12.2%) and 60-55 on run lines (+14.34 units, ROI: 12.5%) since 2013.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS

Totals Angles
The last three MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as although the outright record on totals is 78-71, Overs have produced a return of +25.53 units, an ROI of 17.1%. Total vig have been heavily shaded towards Unders.

Nine Top World Series MLB Betting Trend Systems

Several nice betting systems have emerged over the last 20+ years of World Series action. You know you’re going to bet the games, why not arm yourself with key data that has won recently?

WORLD SERIES system #1:
Home-field advantage hasn’t meant a lot in recent World Series action, with hosts on a 17-27 slide in the last 44 opportunities dating back to 2016 (-17.69 Units, -40.2% ROI)
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-142 vs. NYY)

WORLD SERIES system #4:
Overall, on totals, there has been a very slight lean to the Over in World Series games over the last 15 years. However, in games with totals of 8 or higher, Under holds an edge of 18-13-1 in that span (+2.8 Units, 9% ROI)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-LAD (o/u at 9) 

WORLD SERIES system #5:
World Series teams have struggled to put back-to-back wins together recently, going 8-21 in the game following up a WS win (-17.75 Units, -61.2% ROI)
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-142 vs. NYY)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3413-3012 (53.1%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -483.73 units and an ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (-142 vs. NYY)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYY-LAD UNDER 9 (-0.9) 

Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(903) NEW YORK-AL (101-71) at (904) LOS ANGELES-NL (106-68)
Trend: NYY good record vs. RH starters (80-46, +11.62 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (+120 at LAD)

Trend: NYY has a solid 16-7 record as a road underdog this season
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (+120 at LAD)

Trend: Under the total is 7-14-2 this season when NYY is a ROAD underdog
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)

Trend: Road teams are 8-5 in the NYY-LAD series since 2016
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (+120 at LAD)

Trend: LAD trending Over at night (78-45 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)

Trend: LAD slightly more profitable vs. LH starters (38-19, +4.16 units)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-142 vs. NYY) 

Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(903) NEW YORK-AL (101-71) at (904) LOS ANGELES-NL (106-68)
Trend: Carlos Rodon hasn’t been great in his five postseason appearances (17.0 IP, 11 ER, 19 HA, 5 BB)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (+120 at LAD)

Trend: Yoshinobu Yamamoto good start vs. NYY back in early June (7.0 IP, 2 HA, 0 ER)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-142 vs. NYY)

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