Sunday Night MLB: Reds vs. Cubs
Football is obviously on the minds of many bettors now that the college season is underway and the NFL is not that far behind. But we shouldn’t forget about baseball, as there continue to be opportunities in that sport on a daily basis. In fact, there are even some betting opportunities in Sunday Night Baseball on NBC between the Reds and Cubs.
The presence of Chase Burns has the Reds a smaller underdog than they probably should be going up against Shota Imanaga and the Cubs, but that’s just another example of the weight that starting pitchers carry when it comes to the MLB moneyline. Chicago, an objectively better team in all facets, was only around -150 on the opening line, which implies about a 66.7% win probability.
See how others are wagering on the game with our VSiN MLB Betting Splits.
See player prop projections for Reds vs. Cubs from OptaAI.
How to Watch Reds vs. Cubs
Where: NBC
When: Sunday August 30, 7:20 p.m. ET
Reds vs. Cubs MLB Odds
Chicago Cubs -153 // Cincinnati Reds +142
Total: 9 (-122/+101)
Reds vs. Cubs Prediction
Pick: Under 9 (+101)
Burns has shouldered a much larger burden in his sophomore season, as he’s thrown nearly 100 more MLB innings and has become the ace of the staff with Hunter Greene’s initial injury and now the Tommy John surgery that will sideline him for most or all of next season (if we have one). Burns has answered the challenge, posting a 2.77 ERA with a 3.17 expected ERA (xERA), and a 3.11 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). With a high strikeout rate and strong contact management numbers in terms of Hard Hit% and Barrel%, his xERA ranks in the top 10 of 53 pitchers with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title.
However, the 23-year-old is starting to show signs of wear and tear and you wonder if the Reds will monitor his innings the rest of the way. In August, Burns has posted a 4.33 ERA with a .262 BA, .321 OBP, and a .379 SLG against. The BA and OBP are his highest by month this season and his SLG is the second-highest, as he has only allowed one home run, but has given up seven doubles. Burns has given up five runs twice this month, something he had only done twice all season up to that point.
Imanaga has been a good investment for the Cubs after coming over from Japan following the 2023 season. Over three seasons, he’s pitched to a 3.44 ERA with a 3.71 xERA and a 4.36 FIP in his 463.1 innings of work. Normally, a pitcher with that big of a discrepancy between his ERA and FIP would be a popular fade candidate, but Imanaga just gives up a lot of home runs. Fortunately, he has only walked 4.7% of the batters he has faced as a big leaguer and has held the opposition to a .225 BA. Giving up 88 home runs over three seasons is bad, but way more tolerable when 62 of them have been solo shots.
The long ball has been a problem over his last five starts, as he has allowed at least one home run in each and eight homers overall. But, he also hasn’t given up more than four runs in any of those starts and actually started the second half with 13 shutout innings. He has good stuff, great control, and just shy of a strikeout per inning, so those home runs haven’t derailed him much. He has a 3.78 ERA with a 3.82 xERA and 4.61 FIP this season. Keep an eye out for influential bettors to pick against him in the postseason if the Cubs do make it.
With just two days left in August, the Reds are batting a paltry .211 against southpaws with a .284 OBP and a .300 SLG, and they’ve struck out over 25% of the time. It should be a good matchup for Imanaga in the primetime spotlight.
The Cubs have pretty much destroyed pitchers from both sides all month long. Their .454 SLG against RHP is second to the Red Sox and they have performed 17% better than league average against righties in that span.
Reds vs. Cubs Prediction
Incredibly, Burns has not faced the Cubs yet this season. The Reds have seen Imanaga twice and have scored one run off of him in each of those games. Even though we’ve seen a lot of runs in this series and the breeze is blowing out, the Under 9 is the pick for me in this one.
Reds vs. Cubs Player Props
Nico Hoerner (CHC) Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+445)
Hoerner is 6-for-6 swiping bags off of righties in the second half of the season and Burns has allowed 22 SB this season with just six caught stealings. For a guy who throws really hard, base runners have been able to pick out the right pitches and Tyler Stephenson, who is having a good season at the dish, has allowed 83 stolen bases and had only caught 19 runners (18.6%). League average is just over 23%.
Also check out the OptaAI MLB Player Prop projections and our proprietary JOLT and VOLT betting models to see what the top ones are for today.
