San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction:
The Seattle Mariners once led the American League West by 10 games. They enter Tuesday in must-win mode to keep their playoff hopes alive as they prepare to host the San Diego Padres.
Yu Darvish makes his second start since May 28. He surrendered three runs in 2 2/3 innings in his first start back against the Detroit Tigers. In his lone minor league rehab appearance, he allowed six runs in 3 1/3 innings.
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The Mariners counter with George Kirby, who owns an 11-10 record and a 3.61 ERA. Kirby has done his best work at home with a 2.94 ERA compared to a 4.10 road ERA.
Seattle has been a pitcher-friendly ballpark for years. This is a big reason for Kirby’s large home and road split, allowing 0.4 home runs per nine innings at home compared to 1.6 home runs per nine innings on the road.
The Mariners have excelled at home with a 41-28 record compared to a 32-43 record on the road, despite averaging over 4.4 runs per game on the road compared to 3.7 runs at home, the second-lowest mark in the league.
Both teams have very similar bullpen stats. The Mariners 3.69 bullpen ERA since July 1 ranks 11th in the league while the Padres 3.67 bullpen ERA ranks 10th.
The Padres are fifth in the league in runs per game on the road with nearly 5.1, and their .273 batting average against right-handed pitchers leads the league, but there will be no freebies coming to them. Kirby issues just 1.1 walks per nine innings.
With Darvish entering in rough form and trying to work his way back from injury, the Mariners will take advantage and continue their winning ways at home.
MLB Pick: Seattle Mariners +100
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