Seattle Mariners 2024 preview
The Houston Astros won the AL West again last season, but things could have gone very differently. I expected the Seattle Mariners to be the main challengers to Houston’s throne. In a lot of respects, they were, but the Texas Rangers were a very formidable foe as well. The division race came down to the very last weekend of the season.
Seattle started slow, posting a 38-42 record over their first 80 games. A blistering month of July and a scorching month of August actually had the M’s tied for first entering September. They would go 11-17 in the final full month of the regular season and actually missed the playoffs by a game.
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They got Over 87.5 wins, albeit barely, but it had to be a very long offseason for Jerry Dipoto, Scott Servais, and all the players involved. On one hand, there is a lot to be excited about, as a lot of young arms came up and had an impact. On the other hand, the M’s still have one playoff appearance since 2001 and got swept by their hated rivals in the ALDS. The hope was to make up for the sweep at the hands of the Astros in 2022.
Instead, it was just another year of being good, but not quite good enough. The Mariners have won 90, 90, and 88 games the last three seasons and have one playoff appearance. Baseball is a cruel mistress, isn’t she? This looks like a good team again per the preseason odds, so let’s see if it turns out differently in 2024.
2024 Seattle Mariners Odds
(odds from DraftKings as of Mar. 11)
World Series: +2000
AL Pennant: +900
AL West: +300
Win Total: 87.5 (+100/-120)
Make Playoffs: Yes -145 / No +125
Seattle Mariners Preview: Offense
There are a couple of ways to look at the Mariners offense. In some respects, they simply need to be better. The Mariners struck out 25.9% of the time last season, which was second to the Twins. In a post-shift world, balls in play should be more valuable than they’ve been in the past, so strikeouts are even more detrimental. Seattle struck out a lot and that was definitely problematic.
On the other hand, you have to evaluate the Mariners with some context because T-Mobile Park is a really bad hitter’s park. Per wRC+, which is park-adjusted, the Mariners were actually ninth. They hit 210 homers, which ranked 11th. That’s plenty respectable when you consider the home venue, along with some other bad offensive parks within the division.
I would argue that’s a good enough offensive showing, especially with the pitching. But, more balls in play wouldn’t hurt. I think that’s a big reason why the Mariners were willing to part ways with Mike Ford, Jarred Kelenic, Teoscar Hernandez, and Eugenio Suarez. All four players posted K% marks north of 30%. Those four guys combined for 2,039 plate appearances last season.
They collectively hit 75 homers and every one of them posted an above average wRC+, but the Mariners are looking for more contact out of this season’s ballclub and I can’t argue with that decision. They reunited with Mitch Haniger and I’m not sure I love that move, but they brought in Jorge Polanco, who, if healthy, should be a fine piece in the lineup and a very productive hitter in Mitch Garver.
The problem with these guys is that the Mariners are really gambling on health. Garver’s topped out at 359 plate appearances and has only played in 209 games over the last three seasons. Polanco has missed ample time the last two seasons. Haniger has only played 118 games over the last two seasons. I’m generally not fond of health gambles on players in their 30s. I see the thought process and the potential upside. I also believe Dipoto tried to cover his backside by bolstering the bench with Luis Urias and Luke Raley.
Dipoto is also putting some bets on guys like Dominic Canzone and Josh Rojas to perform. I fully expect Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh and J.P. Crawford to play well, though I do have some regression concerns about Crawford, who hit 19 homers after having just 27 in six seasons prior to last year.
Check that, I have major regression concerns about Crawford, who posted a career-best 134 wRC+. He had a xSLG of .379 with an actual SLG of .438, as his Hard Hit% of 36.2% and Barrel% of 4.8% were well below league average. I’m not really buying what we saw last season. I think he’s way more likely to be around a league average bat, which is really going to hurt this offense if the other guys don’t perform.
Yes, J-Rod is an elite player with back-to-back 5+ fWAR seasons and I’d anticipate another one. I really, truly worry about the supporting cast here. The margin for error looks pretty thin to me.
Seattle Mariners Preview: Pitching
The Mariners rotation turned in a 3.89 ERA and a 3.93 FIP, which ranked fourth and third, respectively. There were so many things to be excited about for the future. Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby were all outstanding, especially Kirby, who led the way with 4.4 fWAR. He had a 3.35 ERA with a 3.34 FIP. Castillo won the starter ERA crown with a 3.34 mark and I think his 3.81 FIP could come down this season.
The fact that the Mariners got 43 combined starts from Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller also helps long-term. Miller had a 4.32 ERA with a 3.98 FIP and Woo had a 4.21 ERA with a 4.36 FIP. I’m a little bit surprised that the Mariners weren’t more aggressive in moving a young, cost-controlled starter to a pitching-needy team for a bat, but I’m sure Dipoto tried. He treats an MLB roster like a fantasy baseball team, so he doesn’t shy away from transactions.
Unfortunately, it seemed like everybody got tired at the same time for the M’s. In September, the rotation collectively posted a 4.47 ERA with a 4.69 FIP. Castillo had an ERA near 5. Miller had an ERA over 6. Woo had a FIP over 6. Kirby’s strikeout rate decreased rapidly. That is ultimately what kept the Mariners out of the playoffs. The starting staff just ran out of gas and everybody was susceptible to the long ball. Mariners starters allowed 26 HR in September. They only allowed 98 HR the rest of the year and had a 3.78 ERA with a 3.78 FIP.
Castillo worked a career-high 197 innings. Gilbert went up five from the previous high he set in 2022 with 190.2 innings. Kirby jumped up by 60.2 innings to throw 190.2. Miller and Woo started the season in Double-A and were suddenly thrust into a playoff chase. I get really scared when I see big spikes in workload and also the stress level of the innings pitched. Woo missed time in August as well.
Starting pitcher depth is super limited here. Emerson Hancock is another top prospect in the org who debuted last season with three starts. Levi Stoudt went to the Reds in the Castillo deal and then got claimed by the Mariners in February when he was waived by Cincinnati. I’m not enamored at all with the depth and I really consider that as a primary factor in my handicapping.
If the Mariners find a way to stay extremely healthy, the rotation does have a high floor and a high ceiling, but I’m really concerned about the escalating workloads of these guys and how much of an impact that could end up having.
Andres Munoz is a strong closer and Gregory Santos is one of the most underrated pen arms in the league. I think people will realize how good he is now that he’s away from an awful White Sox organization. He had a 3.39 ERA with a 2.65 FIP last season as one of the few bright spots for the Pale Hose.
Once again, though, there’s some turnover and injury risk here. Justin Topa had 75 appearances with a 2.61 ERA and a 3.15 FIP and he’s gone. Matt Brash led the team in appearances with 78 and he was slowed by injury in camp. Paul Sewald was solid over 45 appearances and got traded to the Diamondbacks at last year’s Trade Deadline. Munoz missed time last season as well.
Edit: The morning after I posted this, it was announced that Santos would miss Opening Day with a lat injury.
Seattle Mariners Player to Watch
SP Logan Gilbert
Gilbert is a tough guy for me to analyze. His career Hard Hit% is 45%, which is really, really high. His Barrel% jumped last season from 7.1% to 9.0%. His average exit velo against is 90.6 mph. That’s a lot of hard contact. Per Baseball Savant, he ranked in 12th percentile in average exit velo, 29th in Barrel%, and 11th in Hard Hit%. He gave up 29 homers last season, but still had nearly a strikeout per inning.
I can’t help but wonder if maybe hitters are figuring him out a bit. Despite a 99th percentile Extension that allows his 95-96 mph to play up, Gilbert’s Pull% was a career-high 42.7%. Now, some of that could be throwing fewer fastballs and more sliders and curveballs that guys can get in front of and hook, but I do wonder if he can keep surviving all the hard contact. Because of his elite walk rate, he can keep pitching at a high level, but I can’t help but wonder if we’ve seen his ceiling already.
Seattle Mariners Season Win Total Odds & Prediction
I really didn’t expect to be down on the Mariners as much as I am. I do think that this is still a high-floor team with their pitching, but the margin for error from an injury standpoint is low and I think there’s a decent chance that this offense is worse than last season’s, even with more contact in the lineup.
Honestly, this team feels closer to a squad like the Guardians than it does the Astros, Rays, Blue Jays, or anything like that and Cleveland’s win total is in the upper 70s. The Mariners are even in a more difficult division. I think it would still be a major surprise if they were to finish under .500, but this is a roster that doesn’t excite me all that much. They were playing at a 92-win pace before the ugly month of September, so maybe I’m being a little too pessimistic, but I think this team could fall short of expectations.
The health profile worries me and so does the depth. Those are two things that are hard to overlook.
Pick: Under 87.5
Get all of our preseason coverage in the 2024 MLB Betting Guide.
