Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, August 14, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* TEXAS letdown in follow-up game after divisional series vs. LAA: 9-28 (24.3%) record for -18.27 units, ROI: -49.4%
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-112 at ATH)
Trend: Under the total is 10-2-2 (+6.55 units) when STL is a large road underdog of +119 or more with starter Matthew Liberatore since the start of the 2022 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): STL-CHC (o/u at 8)
Trend: SAN FRANCISCO is on a 27-5 (84.4%, +15.54 units) surge hosting Colorado
– The ROI on this trend is 48.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-124 vs COL)
* Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 210-163 (+22.41 units, ROI: 6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+119 at CLE)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 50-48 for -13.66 units for an ROI of -13.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-111 vs MIA), CLEVELAND (-128 vs SD)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 73-113 for -44.91 units and an ROI of -24.1%! Fading these teams continues to produce and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+101 vs KC)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 126-176 start for -12.06 units. After losing about 22 units over the last eight-and-a-half weeks, this angle has finally gone into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+168 at CHC), COLORADO (+116 at SF)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 259-301 for -7.51 units, but it has taken a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 68-55, +26.68 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+103 at CIN), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+120 at DET), SAN DIEGO (+119 at CLE), LA ANGELS (+101 vs KC), MILWAUKEE (+163 at LAD)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 200-127 for +48.97 units, an ROI of +15%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-119 at PIT), NY METS (-113 vs WSH), HOUSTON (-119 vs SEA), TEXAS (-112 at ATH), SAN FRANCISCO (-124 vs COL)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 148-181 start for -25.67 units (ROI -7.8%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+168 at CHC), COLORADO (+116 at SF)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 127-146 for -3.74 units. However, it has lost -17.04 units over the last six-and-a-half weeks.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (-109 at LAA), ATHLETICS (+104 vs TEX)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 517-413 for +43.87 units and an ROI of 4.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-161 vs BAL), SAN DIEGO (+119 at CLE), LA ANGELS (+101 vs KC)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 253-188 for +23.92 units and an ROI of 5.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-119 at PIT), TEXAS (-112 at ATH)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 156-196 for -38.30 units and an ROI of -10.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS (+101 vs KC), ATHLETICS (+104 vs TEX)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 443-387 but for -102.63 units and an ROI of -12.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-180 vs STL), CINCINNATI (-111 vs MIA), TAMPA BAY (-161 vs BAL), CLEVELAND (-128 vs SD), NY METS (-113 vs WSH), HOUSTON (-119 vs SEA)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 465-412 record for +45.99 units and an ROI of 5.2% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+167 at CHC), BOSTON (-119 at PIT), WASHINGTON (+105 at NYM), COLORADO (+116 at SF)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2192-2071 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -269.07 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+111 vs BOS), CINCINNATI (-111 vs MIA)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,250-2,826 (44.3%) for -261.89 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (-109 at LAA), MIAMI (+103 at CIN), SEATTLE (+111 at HOU), NY YANKEES (-142 at TOR), TEXAS (-112 at ATH)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 668-562 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +14.80 units, for an ROI of 1.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-180 vs STL), CLEVELAND (-128 vs SD), TORONTO (+132 vs NYY), SAN FRANCISCO (-124 vs COL)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 399-198 (66.8%) for +62.37 units and an ROI of 10.4%!
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR PITTSBURGH vs BOS (+111 CURRENTLY)
Ride the hot bats to Overs
Once the calendar hits June, home teams who hit 3+ HRs themselves but also gave up 3+ HRs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 69-46-5 (60%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 39-19 Over streak in the last 58).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): AZ-ATL (o/u at 8), WSH-NYM (o/u at 8.5)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 112-162 SU (-24.52 units, ROI: -8.9%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+163 at LAD)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 199-241 SU record for +34.71 units and an ROI of 7.9% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+104 vs TEX)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #5:
In MLB games occurring in August or later between two teams who have >= 0.580 win pct, SMALLER FAVORITES in the -111 to -175 line range have gone 50-22 SU for +19.69 units (ROI: 27.3%) in the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR LA DODGERS vs MIL (-176 CURRENTLY)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 210-163 (+22.41 units, ROI: 6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+119 at CLE)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 517-499 for +27.33 units, good for +2.7% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: LA ANGELS +101 (+33 diff), PITTSBURGH +111 (+12)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SAN FRANCISCO -124 (+55 diff), CINCINNATI -111 (+26), LA DODGERS -176 (+25), HOUSTON -119 (+19), CHICAGO CUBS -181 (+13)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) ST LOUIS (61-60) at (952) CHICAGO-NL (71-51)
Trend: Under the total is 10-2-2 (+6.55 units) as a large road underdog of +119 or more with starter Matthew Liberatore since the start of the 2022 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): STL-CHC (o/u at 8)
(953) MIAMI (62-60) at (954) CINCINNATI (58-62)
Trend: Under the total is 12-6 (+5.45 units) in the competitive -140 to +140 line range with starter Chase Burns in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-CIN (o/u at 8)
(955) WASHINGTON (60-63) at (956) NEW YORK-NL (53-69)
Trend: WSH is 39-21 (+12.94 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at NYM)
(957) ARIZONA (64-58) at (958) ATLANTA (73-48)
Trend: Chris Sale’s teams are 28-9 (+12.59 units) in his last 37 home night starts (including 19-1 (+16.39 units) when favored by -188 or more)
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-187 vs AZ)
(959) MILWAUKEE (75-47) at (960) LOS ANGELES-NL (73-49)
Trend: LAD is 49-69 (-24.47 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 vs MIL)
(961) COLORADO (48-73) at (962) SAN FRANCISCO (50-71)
Trend: COL is 14-39 (-15.47 units) on the road over the last few seasons with starter Kyle Freeland
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+116 at SF)
Trend: SF is 2-15 in their last 17 games with starter Landen Roupp
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-124 vs COL)
(967) BALTIMORE (58-63) at (968) TAMPA BAY (74-46)
Trend: TB is 53-37 (+29.62 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-1.5 vs BAL)
(969) SEATTLE (57-65) at (970) HOUSTON (62-60)
Trend: SEA is 24-36 (-17.37 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+111 at HOU)
(971) KANSAS CITY (49-73) at (972) LOS ANGELES-AL (48-74)
Trend: Under the total is 39-22-1 (+14.80 units) in LAA home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-LAA (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: Grayson Rodriguez’s teams are 21-8 (+12.11 units) in his last 29 starts against below .500 teams
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+101 vs KC)
(973) TEXAS (60-62) at (974) ATHLETICS (47-74)
Trend: TEX is 1-9 (-8.15 units) in road night games with starter Kumar Rocker in his career
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-112 at ATH)
(975) BOSTON (65-56) at (976) PITTSBURGH (59-64)
Trend: Over the total is 39-20-1 (+17.00 units) in PIT home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-PIT (o/u at 8)
(977) SAN DIEGO (65-57) at (978) CLEVELAND (59-63)
Trend: Under the total is 22-9-1 (+12.70 units) when starter Michael King is an underdog since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-CLE (o/u at 7.5)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #19: NY Yankees at Toronto, Fri 8/14-Sun 8/16
Trend: Favorites are just 33-47 (41.3%, -33.68 units) in the last 80 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -42.1%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-142 at TOR)
Series #34: Colorado at San Francisco, Fri 8/14-Sun 8/16
Trend: SAN FRANCISCO is on a 27-5 (84.4%, +15.54 units) surge hosting Colorado
– The ROI on this trend is 48.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-124 vs COL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+104 vs TEX)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): MIAMI (+103 at CIN), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+120 at DET), BALTIMORE (+150 at TB), WASHINGTON (+105 at NYM)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-119 at PIT), CLEVELAND (-128 vs SD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since a lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-128 vs SD), LA DODGERS (-176 vs MIL)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
ATLANTA
Letdown after series vs. NY METS: 17-23 (42.5%) -12.12 units, ROI: -30.3%
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-187 vs AZ)
TEXAS
Letdown after series vs. LA ANGELS: 9-28 (24.3%) -18.27 units, ROI: -49.4%
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-112 at ATH)
