MLB Best Bets Today August 14
One day game and 13 night games are on the slate for Friday. The Phillies and Twins have a rare Friday off after participating in the Field of Dreams game last night, so they’ll be back in action tomorrow. The focus is on the 28 teams taking the field today and the betting opportunities available as we head into another weekend on the diamond. We don’t have too many of these left for the regular season, but there are a lot of playoff races to be decided over the next seven weeks.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 14:
Marlins vs. Reds Prediction
Pick: Marlins +103
Sandy Alcantara and Chase Burns are the listed hurlers here, as the Reds are favored pretty much exclusively because of the presence of Burns. There aren’t many other redeeming qualities for this team, though maybe yesterday’s bench-clearing incident could galvanize the roster a little bit.
Still, Burns is an overpriced ace at this point in my opinion. I went against him in a bigger favorite role with the Nationals last time out and he allowed five runs on six hits in 5.1 innings of work. He walked three and struck out six, as he’s walked at least two batters in six straight starts, plus he also walked six in his last start of the first half against the Phillies. Once again, the velo was down for Burns in that D.C. start, as he sat below 97 again with the fastball, this time for the fourth consecutive start. He hadn’t had any starts under that prior to this run.
The newly-minted ace, who has a lot more on his shoulders with Hunter Greene expected to miss all of next season, has thrown 124 MLB innings this season. Last season, he threw 43.1 innings at the MLB level and 66 across three minor league levels, so this is now a career-high in innings pitched and all of them are at the highest-stress level. He has a 2.61 ERA with a 3.20 xERA, a 3.27 FIP, and a 3.58 xFIP, so there are some mild regression signs in the profile to begin with. He has an 82.1% LOB%, which would be unsustainable for most, but his high K% gives him a better chance. Still, even with a good rate of Whiffs in those last four starts, you can tell something is just a tick off.
Nothing has been off for Alcantara of late, as he hasn’t allowed a run in three straight starts. Over those 20 innings, he’s allowed 11 hits to the Angels, Mets, and Phillies with an 18/4 K/BB ratio. While these runs are fewer and farther between compared to his time before having Tommy John surgery, he has been solid more often than not this season with a 3.52 ERA, 3.63 xERA, and a 3.76 FIP over 163.2 innings of work. His 9.5% HR/FB% is also an encouraging sign heading down to Cincinnati.
As much as the Marlins offense has struggled for stretches in the second half and over the summer, they enter this game with a higher wRC+ against RHP in the second half than the Reds and are only three points behind in wOBA, despite a big park factor difference.
Cincinnati had to use six different relievers yesterday. The Marlins only used two low-leverage guys, so I think there’s a late-game advantage for them as well.
Padres vs. Guardians Prediction
Pick: Padres +119
Michael King and Gavin Williams are the listed hurlers tonight, so we should see a lot of nasty stuff from the starters in Cleveland. We’re also probably going to see some really nasty stuff out of at least one bullpen and the fact that the Padres have a really big advantage in that department is one of the reasons I like them in an underdog role.
Williams has been really, really good for a long time now. Since he gave up seven runs to the Brewers on June 17, Williams has a 3.06 ERA with a 2.27 xERA and a 2.38 FIP over his last nine starts with 82 strikeouts against just 11 walks in 53 innings. Last time out, Stephen Vogt pulled Williams with a runner on and Andrew Benintendi at the plate. Colin Holderman promptly hit two guys and then gave up a double and a single and suddenly the great work from Williams was wasted, as the Guardians trailed 5-2.
Over those last nine starts, Williams has allowed more than two earned runs just twice, but it should also be noted that he’s faced the White Sox 3x, Twins 2x, Mariners, Pirates, Reds, and Diamondbacks. While not all of those starts came in the second half, those teams rank 25th, 26th, 28th, 22nd, 14th, and 7th in wOBA against RHP in that span. The Padres are second, slashing .281/.355/.474 with a .360 wOBA.
King sports a 3.37 ERA with a 4.39 xERA and a 4.16 FIP on the season over 136.1 innings of work. Dating back to June 22, he has a 2.98 ERA with a 3.73 xERA and a 3.86 FIP over his last nine starts. While that’s not on the level of what Williams has done, it’s plenty good enough with the better offense and easily the better bullpen for me to look at San Diego in a pup role here.
The Guardians roll out platoons all of the time and King has been better against left-handed batters this season, allowing a .284 wOBA compared to a .303 wOBA against RHB. Lefties have only posted a .299 OBP in that split.
Rockies vs. Giants Prediction
Pick: Giants -131
In the pantheon of pitchers who have deserved a better fate this season, Landen Roupp is pretty high on the list. The San Fran righty has a 4.22 ERA, but a 3.52 xERA and a 3.52 FIP over his 123.2 innings of work. He has a 50.2% GB%, has only allowed nine HR in his 23 starts, and has almost a strikeout per inning. He has had major problems with walks that have shortened some of his starts, but he’s done a phenomenal job of inducing weak contact with a 29% Hard Hit% and just a 4.1% Barrel%.
While Roupp has a lot of positive regression signs and I like that about him here, I’m fading Kyle Freeland. Freeland threw 115 pitches in a complete game effort two starts ago. Then he needed 101 pitches to record just 13 outs last time out against the Cardinals. His defense didn’t help, as he allowed three runs and only one was earned, but he did walk three along with three strikeouts. He had allowed 19 runs over his previous four starts prior to the complete game and has a 6.63 ERA with a 5.22 xERA and a 4.65 FIP.
The 33-year-old Freeland has not had back-to-back starts with 100+ pitches since August 10 and 16 back in 2022. It’s just not really something that pitchers do a lot of these days and especially pitch-to-contact guys like Freeland. While he’s not in Coors Field today, he’s actually been worse on the road, allowing a .320/.353/.552 slash with a .387 wOBA in 55.1 innings. He has a 7.81 ERA on the road compared to a 5.49 ERA at home.
This isn’t a great matchup for the Giants against a southpaw, as they are the worst offense in baseball in the second half in that split, but a 26% K% has a lot to do with that and Freeland is not a strikeout guy, nor is he remotely overpowering.
Both teams have rested bullpens and I’m hoping it will be the high-leverage arms for the Giants that get called into action.
