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Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers, MLB — Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal throws a pitch against the Philadelphia Phillies during the first inning at Comerica Park in Detroit on Sunday, July 12, 2026.

Steve Makinen’s MLB Picks from Betting Splits and Systems for Friday, July 24

Steve Makinen and the VSiN Analytics team share the MLB betting trends you need to know for Friday, July 24.

July 24, 2026

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Today’s MLB Betting Trends:

The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, July 24, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 455-404 record for +44.87 units and an ROI of 5.2% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-136 at NYM), ATLANTA (-101 at BAL), ARIZONA (-125 at WSH)

On Under projections when the SM ratings simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Unders are 27-10 for +15.2 units and an ROI of 41.1% so far in 2026.
TODAY’s MATCH: LAA-SF UNDER 8.5 (projections have o/u at 7.5)

Trend: Favorites are on a 20-5 (80%, +11.26 units) surge in the Athletics-Minnesota head-to-head series
– The ROI on this trend is 45%
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-144 vs ATH)

NY YANKEES are 16-24 SU (-12.62 units) on the road in the first three series post-All-Star Break since 2016
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (+118 at PHI)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are back to profitability at 167-126 for +5.27 units and an ROI of 1.8%.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-114 at TEX)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 46-33 for +2.86 units.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs NYY)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 61-94 for -38.01 units and an ROI of -24.5%! Fading these teams continues to produce.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (+113 at MIA), LA ANGELS (+130 at SF)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 109-146 start for -2.21 units. After losing about 12 units over the last month, this angle has finally gone into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (+217 at DET), WASHINGTON (+104 vs AZ), ATHLETICS (+119 at MIN), CINCINNATI (+129 at STL)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 53-30 for -14.07 units, ROI -17%, as it is now acting like its usual self.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-271 vs KC)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 35-20 but for -14.6 units so far.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-300 vs COL)

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 25-16 start for -10.84 units, and an ROI of -26.4%.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-300 vs COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 208-258 for -28.12 units. This ROI of -6% is much less than what we’ve come to expect, but it has gotten over 11 units back in the last few weeks.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-108 at PIT), NY YANKEES (+118 at PHI), ATLANTA (-101 at BAL), SAN DIEGO (+113 at MIA), LA ANGELS (+130 at SF)

Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 177-111 for +45.01 units, an ROI of +15.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (-125 at WSH), BOSTON (-124 vs TOR), SEATTLE (-114 at TEX)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 131-157 start for -18.38 units (ROI -6.4%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 56-75 for -18.45 units and a solid ROI of -14.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – CINCINNATI (+129 at STL)
3-games – HOUSTON (+107 at CWS)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 103-114 for +3.10 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-136 vs SD), SAN FRANCISCO (-157 vs LAA)

MLB Post-All Star Break Trends/Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays look at how teams fare coming out of the All-Star break in previous seasons. This study looks at the first three series for each team after the Midsummer Classic, unless otherwise noted.

In the first three series post-All-Star break, home underdogs are 170-165 for +44.38 units (ROI: 13.2%) since 2019.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+104 vs AZ), NY METS (+113 vs LAD), TEXAS (-105 vs SEA)

* In the first three series post-All-Star break, games with higher totals (O/U >= 9) have gone Under at a 372-282-40 (56.9%) rate since 2016.
Trend Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): AZ-WSH (o/u at 9.5), SD-MIA (o/u at 9), LAD-NYM (o/u at 9), TOR-BOS (o/u at 9), HOU-CWS (o/u at 9), ATH-MIN (o/u at 9.5)

TEAM NOTABLES (*first three series post ASB*)

* ARIZONA – 16-8-1 (66.7%) to the Under on the road since 2021 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): AZ-WSH (o/u at 9.5)

* ATLANTA – 40-51 SU (-17.43 units) overall since 2016 ASB
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-101 at BAL)

* BALTIMORE – 29-17-1 (63%) to the Over at home since 2017 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-BAL (o/u at 8.5)

* BALTIMORE – 30-20 SU (+14.36 units) at home since 2016 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-120 vs ATL)

* CHICAGO WHITE SOX – 15-6-2 (71.4%) to the Over at home since 2018 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-CWS (o/u at 9)

* CHICAGO CUBS – 52-34-5 (60.5%) to the Under overall since 2016 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHC-PIT (o/u at 8)

* CINCINNATI – 29-13-1 (69%) to the Under overall since 2022 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-STL (o/u at 8)

* LA DODGERS – 22-8 SU (+9.31 units) as a road favorite since 2017 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-136 at NYM)

* NY YANKEES – 16-24 SU (-12.62 units) on the road since 2016 ASB
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (+118 at PHI)

* PITTSBURGH – 17-6-2 (73.9%) to the Under as a home favorite since 2016 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHC-PIT (o/u at 8)

* SAN DIEGO – 26-17 SU (+10.90 units) on the road in the -145 to +190 line range since 2021 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+113 at MIA)

* SEATTLE – 9-2 SU (+6.24 units) as a road favorite/pick ’em since 2016 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-114 at TEX)

* TAMPA BAY – 10-17 SU (-19.86 units) as a home favorite since 2016 ASB
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-139 vs CLE)

* TAMPA BAY – 18-6 (75%) to the Under at home when in -185 to +245 line range since 2016 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-TB (o/u at 7.5)

* TEXAS – 21-7 SU (+12.92 units) at home since 2023 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-105 vs SEA)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 504-401 for +45.67 units and an ROI of 5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (-125 at WSH), HOUSTON (+113 at CWS)

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 248-183 for +24.90 units and an ROI of 5.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (-125 at WSH), SEATTLE (-114 at TEX)

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 149-193 for -40.65 units and an ROI of -11.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): TEXAS (-105 vs SEA)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 431-373 but for -94.73 units and an ROI of -11.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-117 vs CHC), BALTIMORE (-120 vs ATL), TAMPA BAY (-130 vs CLE), MIAMI (-136 vs SD), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-136 vs HOU), MINNESOTA (-144 vs ATH), SAN FRANCISCO (-157 vs LAA)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,164-2,046 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -267.13 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-136 at NYM), ARIZONA (-125 at WSH)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,201-2,773 (44.2%) for -267.05 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+224 at MIL), NY YANKEES (+118 at PHI), CHICAGO CUBS (-103 at PIT), CLEVELAND (+108 at TB), LA ANGELS (+130 at SF)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 658-552 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +17.19 units, for an ROI of 1.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-117 vs CHC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-136 vs HOU), MINNESOTA (-144 vs ATH)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 351-314 (52.8%) for +20.81 units and an ROI of 3.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-156 vs CIN)

Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record of 197-237 SU for +36.03 units and an ROI of 8.3% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+119 at MIN)

Big underdogs after heartbreak fall flat
Heavy underdogs of +210 or more who lost their last game by only one run have gone 43-140 SU for -38.45 units (ROI: -21%) in the follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+217 at DET)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #6:
Having at least 50 games under their belt for the year, interleague plus-money underdogs who have a 10% or higher win percentage than their opponent have gone 51-38 SU for +21.62 units (ROI: 24.3%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR ATLANTA at BAL (-101 CURRENTLY)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 20-25 (+8.79 units, ROI: 19.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 104-190 (-66.80 units, ROI: -22.7%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (-136 vs SD)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 314-328 run (+7.13 units, ROI: 1.1%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-136 vs SD), SAN FRANCISCO (-157 vs LAA)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 425-413 for +12.01 units, good for 1.4% ROI.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: COLORADO +238 (+45 diff), NY YANKEES +118 (+25), KANSAS CITY +217 (+16), CHICAGO CUBS -108 (+13)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MINNESOTA -144 (+34), ARIZONA -125 (+22), TAMPA BAY -139 (+21), SEATTLE -114 (+14)

Theoretically, the best “edges” come up when a score projection comes up with a full 1.0 run edge on either the Over or Under. On Over projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Overs are 15-8-1 for +5.48 units and an ROI of 23.8%. On Under projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Unders are 27-10 for +15.2 units and an ROI of 41.1%.

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (1.0 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: CIN-STL OVER 8 (+1.0)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (1.0 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: LAA-SF UNDER 8.5 (-1.0)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(903) CHICAGO-NL (57-45) at (904) PITTSBURGH (53-50)
Trend: Over the total is 15-8-1 (+6.20 units) when CHC is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-PIT (o/u at 8.5)

(905) ARIZONA (54-49) at (906) WASHINGTON (52-51)
Trend: Eduardo Rodriguez’s teams are 18-8 (+7.60 units) when he starts as a road favorite since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-125 at WSH)
Trend: WSH is 24-9 (+13.51 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 vs AZ)

(909) SAN DIEGO (50-53) at (910) MIAMI (52-51)
Trend: Under the total is 22-10-3 (+11.10 units) when starter German Marquez is on the road and facing opponents with a winning record since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-MIA (o/u at 9)

(911) CINCINNATI (47-54) at (912) ST LOUIS (52-50)
Trend: STL is 15-23 (-11.37 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (-1.5 vs CIN)

(913) KANSAS CITY (43-61) at (914) DETROIT (49-54)
Trend: KC is 9-20 (-18.75 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+1.5 at DET)
Trend: DET is 26-12 (+5.72 units) in Tarik Skubal’s last 38 night game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-271 vs KC)

(915) CLEVELAND (54-50) at (916) TAMPA BAY (59-43)
Trend: Over the total is 14-4 (+9.50 units) when CLE faces non-divisional AL teams with starter Joey Cantillo in his career
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-TB (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: TB is 44-31 (+25.54 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-1.5 vs CLE)

(917) TORONTO (47-56) at (918) BOSTON (52-49)
Trend: Patrick Sandoval’s teams are 3-11 (-9.81 units) in his last 14 starts at home against divisional teams with a > 41% win pct
Trend: Patrick Sandoval’s teams are 6-13 (-7.78 units) following up a team win in his previous outing in the last few seasons
Trends Match (FADE): BOSTON (-124 vs TOR)

(919) HOUSTON (50-54) at (920) CHICAGO-AL (54-47)
Trend: Under the total is 18-7-3 (+10.40 units) in Houston road games with starter Spencer Arrighetti in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-CWS (o/u at 9)

(921) SEATTLE (51-52) at (922) TEXAS (51-51)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore’s teams are 9-18 (-14.82 units) when he starts in home games vs opponents with losing records in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-105 vs SEA)

(925) NEW YORK-AL (57-45) at (926) PHILADELPHIA (56-47)
Trend: Jesus Luzardo’s teams are 5-10 (-7.45 units) when he starts vs AL East competition since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs NYY)

(927) ATLANTA (60-42) at (928) BALTIMORE (50-53)
Trend: ATL is 5-11 (-13.73 units) versus non-divisional teams with a losing record with starter Grant Holmes since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-101 at BAL)
Trend: Trevor Rogers’ teams are 1-9 (-7.82 units) in his last 10 starts vs Atlanta
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-120 vs ATL)
Trend: Under the total is 24-12 (+11.20 units) with starter Trevor Rogers since the start of the 2025 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-BAL (o/u at 8.5)

(929) LOS ANGELES-AL (41-62) at (930) SAN FRANCISCO (42-60)
Trend: Grayson Rodriguez’s teams are 21-5 (+15.11 units) in his last 26 starts against below .500 opponents
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+130 at SF)

Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends

Series #30: Toronto at Boston, Fri 7/24-Sun 7/26
Trend: Underdogs are on a 30-16 (65.2%, +21.73 units) run in the Toronto-Boston AL East rivalry
– The ROI on this trend is 47.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+103 at BOS)

Series #36: Athletics at Minnesota, Fri 7/24-Sun 7/26
Trend: Favorites are on a 20-5 (80%, +11.26 units) surge in the Athletics-Minnesota head-to-head series
– The ROI on this trend is 45%
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-144 vs ATH)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, DETROIT, TAMPA BAY, MIAMI, SAN FRANCISCO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): TORONTO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, DETROIT

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1,074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, BALTIMORE, SAN FRANCISCO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, PHILADELPHIA, BALTIMORE

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

BALTIMORE
Letdown after series vs. BOSTON: 13-25 (34.2%) -11.95 units, ROI: -31.4%
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-120 vs ATL)