The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, July 20, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 394-196 (66.8%) for +59.76 units and an ROI of 10.1%!
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-131 vs SD)

Trend: TEXAS is 15-2 (88.2%, +11.56 units) in their last 17 games versus the Chicago White Sox
– The ROI on this trend is 68%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-170 vs CWS)

So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have gone 169-108 for +40.47 units, an ROI of +14.6%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-117 vs PIT), HOUSTON (-125 vs MIA), LA ANGELS (-114 vs STL)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are teetering around the profitability line at 160-124 for +0.76 units and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-105 at CHC), HOUSTON (-125 vs MIA), LA ANGELS (-114 vs STL)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 45-30 for +5.88 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-120 at CLE), PITTSBURGH (-103 at NYY), TEXAS (-170 vs CWS)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 58-91 for -37.4 units and an ROI of -25.1%! Fading these teams continues to produce.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-149 vs ATH)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 106-142 start for -4.35 units. After losing about 14 units over the last month, this angle has finally gone into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+104 vs WSH), ATHLETICS (+123 at AZ)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 34-20 but for -15.6 units so far.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-218 vs NYM)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 197-252 for -34.14 units. This ROI of -7.6% is much less than what we’ve come to expect.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+100 vs MIN), TAMPA BAY (+139 at TOR), LA DODGERS (+123 at PHI), SAN FRANCISCO (-102 at KC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+140 at TEX), DETROIT (-105 at CHC), COLORADO (+104 vs WSH)

Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 169-108 for +40.47 units, an ROI of +14.6%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-117 vs PIT), HOUSTON (-125 vs MIA), LA ANGELS (-114 vs STL)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 130-155 start for -17.27 units (ROI -6.1%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 56-73 for -16.45 units and a solid ROI of -12.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – CHICAGO CUBS (-114 vs DET)
3+ games – BALTIMORE (+134 at BOS)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 100-108 for +5.94 units.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+104 at HOU)

MLB Post-All-Star Break Trends/Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays look at how teams fare coming out of the All-Star break in previous seasons. This study looks at the first three series for each team after the Midsummer Classic, unless otherwise noted.

In the first three series post-All-Star break, home underdogs are 164-160 for +43.19 units (ROI: 13.3%) since 2019.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+100 vs MIN), COLORADO (+104 vs WSH)

In the first three series post-All-Star break, games with higher totals (O/U >= 9) have gone Under at a 358-274-39 (56.6%) rate since 2016.
Trend Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BAL-BOS (o/u at 9), SD-ATL (o/u at 9), SF-KC (o/u at 10.5), DET-CHC (o/u at 11), MIA-HOU (o/u at 9), WSH-COL (o/u at 12), ATH-AZ (o/u at 9), STL-LAA (o/u at 9)

TEAM NOTABLES (*first three series post ASB*)

* ARIZONA – 16-8 (+7.47 units) at home since 2021 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-149 vs ATH)

* ATLANTA – 37-50 SU (-18.94 units) overall since 2016 ASB
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-131 vs SD)

* BOSTON – 18-23 SU (-7.59 units) overall since 2022 ASB
Trend Match (FADE): BOSTON (-157 vs BAL)

* CHICAGO CUBS – 51-32-5 (61.4%) to the Under overall since 2016 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-CHC (o/u at 11)

* CINCINNATI – 27-12-1 (69.2%) to the Under overall since 2022 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-SEA (o/u at 7.5)

* COLORADO – 29-11-3 (72.5%) to the Under at home since 2018 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-COL (o/u at 12)

* COLORADO – 12-8 SU (+9.51 units) at home since 2023 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+104 vs WSH)

* KANSAS CITY – 21-13 (61.8%) to the Under at home since 2021 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-KC (o/u at 10.5)

* NY METS – 24-15 SU (+10.95 units) on the road since 2018 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (+178 at MIL)

* PITTSBURGH – 7-16 SU (-5.39 units) on the road since 2019 ASB
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-103 at NYY)

* SAN DIEGO – 25-15 SU (+11.67 units) on the road in the -145 to +190 line range since 2021 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+109 at ATL)

* SAN FRANCISCO – 10-23 SU (-14.89 units) on the road since 2022 ASB
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-102 at KC)

* TAMPA BAY – 8-19 SU (-12.28 units) on the road since 2022 ASB
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+139 at TOR)

* TEXAS – 20-5 SU (+14.63 units) at home since 2023 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-170 vs CWS)

* TORONTO – 19-12 (+6.73 units) overall since 2023 ASB
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-168 vs TB)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 502-399 for +45.67 units and an ROI of 5.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+130 at BOS), BOSTON (-157 vs BAL), MILWAUKEE (-218 vs NYM)

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 248-182 for +26.05 units and an ROI of 6.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-120 at CLE), WASHINGTON (-125 at COL)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 431-371 but for -91.76 units and an ROI of -11.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): TEXAS (-170 vs CWS)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 454-401 record for +46.83 units and an ROI of 5.5% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-103 at NYY), SAN DIEGO (+109 at ATL), CINCINNATI (+119 at SEA)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,160-2,039 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -263.83 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (+109 at ATL), CHICAGO CUBS (-114 vs DET), CINCINNATI (+119 at SEA)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,191-2,768 (44.2%) for -272.69 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, MIAMI, MINNESOTA, ATHLETICS, DETROIT, LA DODGERS

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 657-550 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +19.07 units, for an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-168 vs TB)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 394-196 (66.8%) for +59.76 units and an ROI of 10.1%!
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-131 vs SD)

Ride the hot bats to Overs
Once the calendar hits June, home teams who hit 3+ HRs themselves but also gave up 3+ HRs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 66-43-5 (60.6%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 36-16 Over streak in the last 52).
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-COL (o/u at 12)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 350-313 (52.8%) for +20.92 units and an ROI of 3.2% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-118 vs SF)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #6:
Having at least 50 games under their belt for the year, interleague plus-money underdogs who have a 10% or higher win percentage than their opponent have gone 50-37 SU for +21.39 units (ROI: 24.6%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR ST LOUIS at LAA (-105 CURRENTLY)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 89-70 (+23.11 units, ROI: 14.5%) in their last 159 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+130 at BOS)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 201-160 (+19.14 units, ROI: 5.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-157 vs BAL)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 408-400 for +7.94 units, good for 1% ROI. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: TAMPA BAY +139 (+20 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +140 (+15), LA DODGERS +123 (+10)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ARIZONA -149 (+42 diff), CHICAGO CUBS -114 (+26), SEATTLE -144 (+26), NY YANKEES -117 (+17), HOUSTON -125 (+15)

If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where on Under projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 96-77 for +9.8 units and an ROI of 5.7%. 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.6 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: SF-KC UNDER 10.5 (-0.6)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) LOS ANGELES-NL (63-37) at (902) PHILADELPHIA (55-45)
Trend: PHI is 40-9 (+22.92 units) in favorite line range of -148 or higher with starter Cristopher Sanchez since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-149 vs LAD)

(903) SAN DIEGO (49-50) at (904) ATLANTA (57-41)
Trend: ATL is 21-5 (+12.51 units) as larger home night favorites (-130 or higher) with starter Bryce Elder in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-131 vs SD)

(907) WASHINGTON (50-50) at (908) COLORADO (40-61)
Trend: WSH is 35-14 (+16.79 units) on the run line in away games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-1.5 at COL)

(909) MINNESOTA (49-51) at (910) CLEVELAND (52-48)
Trend: Over the total is 31-15-3 (+14.50 units) in MIN road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-CLE (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: CLE is 33-19 (+12.33 units) in the -135 to +110 line range with starter Tanner Bibee the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+100 vs MIN)

(911) TAMPA BAY (56-42) at (912) TORONTO (46-53)
Trend: Dylan Cease’s teams are 11-10 (-5.32 units) when he starts as a home night favorite since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-168 vs TB)

(915) CHICAGO-AL (52-46) at (916) TEXAS (50-49)
Trend: Under the total is 15-7-1 (+7.35 units) when Erick Fedde is within -155 to +148 line range in night games since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-TEX (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: Erick Fedde’s teams are 5-18 (-12.36 units) in his last 23 starts as a road underdog
Trend: TEX is 17-6 (+6.64 units) in the last 23 games as a -144 favorite or higher with starter Jacob deGrom
Trends Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-170 vs CWS)

(919) SAN FRANCISCO (42-57) at (920) KANSAS CITY (40-60)
Trend: KC is 18-29 (-15.98 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+1.5 vs SF)

(921) DETROIT (46-53) at (922) CHICAGO-NL (56-43)
Trend: CHC is 14-7 (+5.00 units) against AL Central opponents with starter Jameson Taillon
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-114 vs DET)

(923) MIAMI (52-48) at (924) HOUSTON (47-54)
Trend: Over the total is 25-15-3 (+8.50 units) when MIA is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-HOU (o/u at 9)

(925) CINCINNATI (45-53) at (926) SEATTLE (50-50)
Trend: CIN is 18-9 (+10.92 units) vs AL teams with starter Andrew Abbott in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+119 at SEA)

(927) ATHLETICS (42-57) at (928) ARIZONA (51-48)
Trend: AZ is 16-6 (+9.72 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-1.5 vs ATH)

(929) ST LOUIS (51-47) at (930) LOS ANGELES-AL (39-61)
Trend: STL is 39-18 (+13.36 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-1.5 at LAA)

Series #32: Minnesota at Cleveland, Mon 7/20-Thu 7/23
Trend: CLEVELAND has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 38-18 (67.9%, +20.68 units).
– The ROI on this trend is 36.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+100 vs MIN)

Series #35: Chicago White Sox at Texas, Mon 7/20-Wed 7/22
Trend: TEXAS is 15-2 (88.2%, +11.56 units) in their last 17 games versus the Chicago White Sox
– The ROI on this trend is 68%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-170 vs CWS)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE, TEXAS, ARIZONA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): TAMPA BAY, MIAMI

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, KANSAS CITY, DETROIT, MIAMI, SEATTLE, ARIZONA, ST LOUIS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, TEXAS

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NY METS  
Letdown after series vs. PHILADELPHIA: 12-25 (32.4%) -20.09 units, ROI: -54.3%
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (+178 at MIL)

PHILADELPHIA 
Letdown after series vs. NY METS: 18-20 (47.4%) -6.27 units, ROI: -16.5%     
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-149 vs LAD)

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