MLB Best Bets Today July 20
It is a rare Monday, as all 30 teams take the field. It makes sense with the All-Star Break just this past week, but it still is a bit surprising to see 15 games on the card to start the work week. There are no day games today either, as our first game goes off at 6:40 p.m. ET and our last game gets underway at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN. There are a few sizable favorites, but for the most part, it looks like we have a pretty competitive set of games.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for July 20:
Marlins vs. Astros Prediction
Pick: Marlins 1st 5 -105
Janson Junk gets the start today for the Marlins in Houston, as the Astros counter with Ronel Blanco, who will make his first MLB start since May 17, 2025. Blanco made four starts and a relief appearance in the minors over 17 innings with a 13/6 K/BB ratio and a 1.06 ERA, but a 5.15 xFIP, as he was pretty fortunate on batted balls, especially those hit in the air.
I’m always skeptical of guys coming back after such a long time, as nerves are a thing and they can get wild as a result. This is a highly-motivated Marlins team that has dropped six straight after getting swept by the Guardians before the Break and the Brewers coming out of it. Blanco is a step down from most of the starters that they’ve seen lately and I think it’s a good chance for them to get right. This is still a top-five offense by wOBA and wRC+ against RHP in the month of July.
This should be one of the better matchups for Junk, as the Astros lead the league by a wide margin in R vs. R plate appearances with 2,077. They are only slashing .234/.302/.390 in that split with a .304 wOBA and a 94 wRC+. Junk has held righties to a .183/.224/.333 slash with a .245 wOBA in 99 plate appearances this season. Lefties have pummeled him, but the only lefty of great concern in the Houston lineup is Yordan Alvarez and hopefully Junk can simply pitch around him.
I’m not touching the Miami pen, which has had some major issues lately, and the Houston pen has been excellent, but the handicap is Junk vs. Blanco and the respective lineups, so we’ll just roll with the 1st 5 here.
Nationals vs. Rockies Prediction
Pick: Nationals -125
We’ll lay it and play it with the Nationals today in Denver, as Andrew Alvarez toes the rubber in a battle of lefties against Kyle Freeland. Alvarez has a 54.5% GB% and just a 7.1% HR/FB% as he heads into this start with a 4.04 ERA, 4.34 xERA, and a 2.94 FIP over his 49 innings of work as a starter and a bulk reliever. Maybe the Nationals pivot and roll with an opener tonight, we will have to see.
Freeland enters with a 7.36 ERA, 5.56 xERA, and a 4.75 FIP over 17 starts covering 88 innings of work. Here in July, the Nationals are second in wOBA against lefties at .396 and are tied for the league lead in wRC+ at 152. They’re slashing .279/.370/.557, while the Rockies are slashing just .230/.336/.387 against southpaws.
The Nationals were also third in HR/FB% at 14.1% over the first half, so they’ve definitely been able to get the ball up in the air and find success when they do. The one downside here in this one is that the Nationals do have the weaker of the two bullpens, but I’m not sure it’s a big factor given how a lot of relievers are trying to get back into rhythm after multiple days off.
The bigger thing here is a very powerful Nationals lineup going to a place that is excellent for hitters and this has been one of the league’s best lineups. Also, while the Nationals are poor defensively as a team, the outfield is +9 Outs Above Average. There’s a lot of ground to cover in Colorado.
Reds vs. Mariners Prediction
Pick: Mariners -144
A chalky price here, but one likely worth laying, as George Kirby makes a home start at T-Mobile Park against the Reds. Cincinnati got to start out with a little bit of an offensive uptick by virtue of playing in Denver, but this is and has been a bad offense throughout the season. While they do rank eighth in wOBA against RHP this month, it has all been predicated on the long ball with a .486 SLG. This is a good pitcher’s park where the ball doesn’t carry much and the Reds have just a .306 OBP against RHP in July, which ranks 17th.
Kirby enters with a 3.76 ERA, 3.86 xERA, and a 3.33 FIP over his 110 innings of work. He’s actually been better on the road than at home, but he is a guy in line for some positive regression with a .343 BABIP against. With a higher Chase Rate than any other season, I would expect more strikeouts to come rolling in during the second half as well.
The Mariners are carrying a really high K% of late against LHP, but Abbott only has 84 strikeouts against 48 walks in 105 innings of work. He’s given up 16 homers, pitching to a 4.11/4.80/4.85 pitcher slash. Even with a 31.3% K% against LHP in July, albeit over just 99 PA, the Mariners still have a 106 wRC+ because they have had success with batted balls.
There is also a big gap between the two bullpens here in my estimation, even though the Mariners might have to run some guys out for a third straight day. Andres Munoz has only thrown nine pitches in each of his last two appearances and Jose Ferrer is fresh, having yesterday off. Also, Kirby is efficient with his pitches and will likely work deeper into this one than Abbott.
