Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, July 27, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 396-197 (66.8%) for +60.62 units and an ROI of 10.2%!
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-120 vs TOR)
Trend: Under the total is 44-16-1 (+26.90 units) when starter Zack Wheeler is on the road and faces teams within 41.5-62% win pct since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-MIA (o/u at 7.5)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 433-377 but for -98.02 units and an ROI of -12.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-167 vs CLE)
CHICAGO CUBS momentum in follow-up game after divisional series vs. PIT: 23-14 record (62.2%) for +8.26 units, ROI: 22.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-120 at STL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are back to profitability at 169-128 for +5.01 units and an ROI of 1.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-136 at TEX), LA ANGELS (-109 vs HOU)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 47-37 for -1.21 units.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): CINCINNATI (-167 vs CLE)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 62-98 for -41.14 units and an ROI of -25.7%! Fading these teams continues to produce.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+120 vs NYY), HOUSTON (-110 at LAA)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For 2026, they are off to a 113-151 start for -2.31 units. After losing about 12.5 units over the last month-and-a-half, this angle has finally gone into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+153 vs PHI), ST LOUIS (+100 vs CHC), SAN FRANCISCO (+113 vs MIL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce-back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 217-265 for -25.62 units. This ROI of -5.3% is much less than what we’ve come to expect, but it has gotten over 13.5 units back in the last few weeks.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-101 at WSH), ATLANTA (-108 at NYM), CLEVELAND (+138 at CIN), LA ANGELS (-109 vs HOU)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 185-115 for +48.29 units, an ROI of +16.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-120 vs BAL), CHICAGO CUBS (-120 at STL)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 132-159 start for -19.45 units (ROI -6.7%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-120 vs TOR)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 104-118 for -0.69 units.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+153 vs PHI)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 250-184 for +25.72 units and an ROI of 5.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-120 at STL)
*WATCH FOR HOUSTON at LAA (-110 CURRENTLY) and MILWAUKEE at SF (-136 CURRENTLY)*
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 150-193 for -39.65 units and an ROI of -11.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+120 vs NYY), ST LOUIS (+100 vs CHC), SAN FRANCISCO (+113 vs MIL)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 433-377 but for -98.02 units and an ROI of -12.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-167 vs CLE)
*WATCH FOR LA ANGELS vs HOU (-109 CURRENTLY)*
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored 6 or more runs in a win boast a solid 458-404 record for +47.94 units and an ROI of 5.6% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-186 at MIA), BOSTON (-175 at ATH), MILWAUKEE (-136 at SF)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,168-2,048 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -265.13 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-186 at MIA), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+120 vs NYY), WASHINGTON (-120 vs TOR), MILWAUKEE (-136 at SF),
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2210-2778 (44.3%) for -260.97 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+138 at CIN), BALTIMORE (-101 at DET), TORONTO (-101 at WSH)
Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 396-197 (66.8%) for +60.62 units and an ROI of 10.2%!
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-120 vs TOR)
Ride the hot bats to Overs
Once the calendar hits June, home teams who hit 3+ HRs themselves but also gave up 3+ HRs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 67-44-5 (60.4%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 37-17 Over streak in the last 54).
System Match (PLAY OVER): NYY-CWS (o/u at 8.5)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 110-157 SU (-22.59 units, ROI: -8.5%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-108 at NYM)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 20-25 (+8.79 units, ROI: 19.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 104-193 (-70.54 units, ROI: -23.8%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+153 vs PHI)
Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 45-80 in their last 125 tries (-18.60 units, ROI: -14.9%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+153 vs PHI)
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams on 6+ game losing streaks playing in less-competitive divisional games (-150 or more favorite/+150 or more underdog) have had their totals go Over at a 66-50-8 (56.9%) rate since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-MIA (o/u at 7.5)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 317-331 run (+6.29 units, ROI: 1%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+153 vs PHI), CLEVELAND (+138 at CIN)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 439-430 for +8.07 units, good for 0.9% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ATLANTA -108 (+32 diff), LA ANGELS -109 (+11), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +123 (+10)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MILWAUKEE -136 (+30 diff), DETROIT -120 (+14)
If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where, on Under projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 102-81 for +11.20 units and an ROI of 6.1%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.6 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: AZ-PIT UNDER 9.5 (-0.7)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) PHILADELPHIA (57-49) at (952) MIAMI (52-54)
Trend: Under the total is 44-16-1 (+26.90 units) when starter Zack Wheeler is on the road and faces teams within 41.5-62% win pct since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-MIA (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: PHI is 10-18 (-10.70 units) in road night games with lower totals (o/u <= 7.5) with starter Zack Wheeler since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-186 at MIA)
(953) ARIZONA (55-51) at (954) PITTSBURGH (54-52)
Trend: Over the total is 42-24 (+15.60 units) when PIT is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): AZ-PIT (o/u at 9.5)
(955) ATLANTA (62-43) at (956) NEW YORK-NL (44-62)
Trend: NYM is 8-20 (-18.20 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-112 vs ATL)
(957) CHICAGO-NL (59-46) at (958) ST LOUIS (53-52)
Trend: David Peterson’s teams are 8-13 (-5.88 units) when he starts on the road within line range -129 to +129 since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-120 at STL)
Trend: STL is 40-19 (+12.39 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+1.5 vs CHC)
(959) MILWAUKEE (66-39) at (960) SAN FRANCISCO (44-61)
Trend: Under the total is 27-18-6 (+7.20 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-SF (o/u at 8.5)
(961) SEATTLE (52-54) at (962) TEXAS (53-52)
Trend: SEA is 25-12 (+6.66 units) as a ROAD favorite of -125 or higher with George Kirby in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-136 at TEX)
(965) NEW YORK-AL (59-46) at (966) CHICAGO-AL (55-49)
Trend: Max Fried’s teams have a 54-41 record when he starts versus opponents with a winning record in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-145 at NYY)
Trend: CWS is 32-19 (+14.23 units) in HOME games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+120 vs NYY)
(967) HOUSTON (52-55) at (968) LOS ANGELES-AL (42-64)
Trend: Under the total is 32-20 (+10.00 units) in LAA home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-LAA (o/u at 8.5)
(969) BOSTON (54-50) at (970) ATHLETICS (44-61)
Trend: Over the total is 30-17-3 (+11.30 units) in ATH home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-ATH (o/u at 9.5)
(973) TORONTO (48-58) at (974) WASHINGTON (54-52)
Trend: Max Scherzer’s teams are 37-19 (+11.32 units) in his last 56 starts on the road vs NL opponents
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-101 at WSH)
Trend: Over the total is 32-19-1 (+11.10 units) in WSH home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-WSH (o/u at 9.5)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #24: Baltimore at Detroit, Mon 7/27-Wed 7/29
Trend: Favorites are 22-10 (68.8%, +7.73 units) in the last 32 games in the BAL-DET series
– The ROI on this trend is 24.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-120 vs BAL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 PM ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1,074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-120 vs TOR), CINCINNATI (-167 vs CLE)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-115 vs AZ), DETROIT (-120 vs BAL), CINCINNATI (-167 vs CLE)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
CHICAGO CUBS
Momentum after series vs. PITTSBURGH: 23-14 (62.2%) +8.26 units, ROI: 22.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-120 at STL)
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