Today a new week begins with a 12 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers (-120, 8.5)
The Orioles (51-55) just dropped two of three against the Braves, losing yesterday’s series finale 3-2 in extra innings as -105 home dogs. On the other hand, the Tigers (50-56) just split a four-game series against the Royals, dropping yesterday’s series finale 5-4 as -190 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Orioles tap righty Kyle Bradish (7-9, 4.39 ERA) and the Tigers turn to fellow righty Keider Montero (7-5, 3.14 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -115 home favorite and Baltimore a -105 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the short home chalk, pushing the Tigers up from -115 to -120.
At DraftKings, Detroit is receiving 59% of moneyline bets and 69% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Tigers are taking in 83% of moneyline bets and 94% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk.
Monday favorites off a loss who made the playoffs the previous season, like the Tigers here, are 34-20 (63%) with a 5% ROI this season.
Non-division favorites in the opening game of a new series who made the playoffs the previous season are 123-71 (63%) with a 7% ROI this season. When both teams are below .500, as is the case here, the home favorite priced -140 or less is 76-54 (58%) with a 6% ROI this season.
Montero has posted a 1.96 ERA in six July appearances, allowing only 4 earned runs in 18.1 innings pitched. Detroit is 7-2 in his last nine appearances. He is 5-3 with a 2.48 ERA in night games.
The Tigers are 29-25 at home. The Orioles are 22-28 on the road.
7:45 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (-125, 9.5) at St. Louis Cardinals
The Cubs (59-46) just took two of three against the Pirates but failed to complete the sweep, losing yesterday’s series finale 8-7 as +115 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (53-52) just lost two of three against the Reds, dropping yesterday’s series finale 5-3 in extras as -135 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Cubs send out lefty David Peterson (5-7, 5.97 ERA) and the Cardinals turn to fellow southpaw Matthew Liberatore (5-7, 5.18 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -115 road favorite and St. Louis a -105 home dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Cubs laying short chalk, pushing Chicago up from -115 to -125.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are taking in 79% of moneyline bets and 97% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Chicago is only receiving 44% of moneyline bets and 74% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of the road chalk, especially the wiseguys in the desert.
Monday favorites off a loss who made the playoffs the previous season, like the Cubs here, are 34-20 (63%) with a 5% ROI this season.
When the line moves in their direction, the Cubs are 38-23 (62%) with an 8% ROI this season, the 4th most profitable line move team in MLB.
Chicago has the better bats, hitting .247 with a .339 OBP and 541 runs scored compared to St. Louis hitting .240 with a .316 OBP and 466 runs scored.
The Cubs are hitting .263 against lefties (3rd best in MLB) while the Cardinals are hitting .241 (15th).
Chicago is 29-24 on the road. St. Louis is 27-29 at home.
9:40 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (-175, 9.5) at Athletics
The Red Sox (54-50) just took two of three against the Blue Jays, winning yesterday’s series finale 6-1 as -145 home favorites. On the other hand, the Athletics (44-61) just dropped two of three against the Twins, losing yesterday’s series finale 11-8 as +135 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Red Sox hand the ball to lefty Payton Tolle (5-6, 3.31 ERA) and the Athletics counter with righty Jack Perkins (2-5, 6.75 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as a -150 road favorite and the Athletics a +130 home dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Red Sox, steaming Boston up from -150 to -175 or even -180 across the market.
At DraftKings, Boston is taking in 93% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Red Sox are receiving 79% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the road chalk.
Non-division favorites in the opening game of a new series who made the playoffs the previous season, like the Red Sox here, are 123-71 (63%) with a 7% ROI this season. Non-division road favorites off a win receiving line movement in their favor are 78-47 (62%) with a 7% ROI this season.
Tolle has posted a 2.83 ERA on the road and a 2.67 ERA at night compared to a 3.72 ERA at home and a 5.24 ERA during the day.
Meanwhile, the A’s are 1-8 in Perkins’ last nine starts. He has posted a 10.03 ERA in three July starts, allowing 13 earned runs in 11.2 innings pitched.
Boston has a massive edge in the bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.05 (1st in MLB) compared to 5.53 for the Athletics (dead last).
The Red Sox are 29-21 on the road this season, 5th best in MLB. The Athletics are 16-28 at home, the worst in MLB.
