Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, August 22, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Teams on 7+ game winning streaks playing against an intraleague opponent with a win percentage within 10% of them have gone 62-23 SU (+26.63 units, ROI: 31.3%) when priced in the -350 to +100 line range since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-147 vs STL)
Trend: Under the total is 29-13-5 (+15.00 units) when ATL is on the road with starter Bryce Elder in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-MIL (o/u at 8)
Having at least 50 games under their belt for the year, interleague plus-money underdogs who have a 10% or higher win percentage than their opponent have gone 52-38 SU for +22.69 units (ROI: 25.2%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+104 at SEA)
Heavy underdogs of +210 or more who lost their last game by only one run have gone 43-144 SU for -42.45 units (ROI: -22.7%) in the follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+233 at LAD)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 76-116 for -44.01 units and an ROI of -22.9%! Fading these teams continues to produce and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS (+149 at TEX), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-109 vs NYM)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 130-189 start for -19.89 after losing about 30 units over the last nine-and-a-half weeks. This angle has finally gone deep into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+163 at MIA), PHILADELPHIA (-147 vs STL), COLORADO (+127 vs CLE)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 76-44 for -21.42 units, ROI -17.9%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-204 vs SF), HOUSTON (-232 vs ATH)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 32-21 start for -16.8 units, and an ROI of -31.7%!
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-204 vs SF)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 265-321 for -21.94 units, but it has taken a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 74-74, +12.25 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+233 at LAD), LA ANGELS (+149 at TEX), CHICAGO CUBS (+104 at SEA)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 222-140 for +56.22 units, an ROI of +15.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-124 at BAL), DETROIT (-106 at KC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-109 vs NYM)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 157-198 start for -34.16 units (ROI -9.6%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 68-92 for -23.69 units and a solid ROI of -14.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – TEXAS (-160 vs LAA)
3+ games – KANSAS CITY (-102 vs DET), LA DODGERS (-253 vs PIT)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 134-152 for +1.42 units. However, it has lost -11.88 units over the last month and a half.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS (+214 at HOU), COLORADO (+127 vs CLE)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over
the last 7+ seasons, going 475-456 (51%) for +16.04 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 1.7%.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+127 vs CLE)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2202-2081 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -269.48 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-136 at COL), ARIZONA (-165 vs CIN)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2264-2845 (44.3%) for -265.72 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, TORONTO, WASHINGTON, ATHLETICS, DETROIT, LA ANGELS, CINCINNATI, MINNESOTA
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 675-566 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +17.30 units, for an ROI of 1.4%.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-158 vs ATL)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 399-199 (66.7%) for +61.21 units and an ROI of 10.2%!
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-109 vs NYM)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 200-241 SU record for +35.80 units and an ROI of 8.1% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+153 at AZ)
Big underdogs after heartbreak fall flat
Heavy underdogs of +210 or more who lost their last game by only one run have gone 43-144 SU for -42.45 units (ROI: -22.7%) in the follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+233 at LAD)
When these teams are +220 or more, Under the total is 96-60-7 (61.5%) in their next game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-LAD (o/u at 7.5)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #5:
In MLB games occurring in August or later between two teams who have >= 0.580 win pct, smaller favorites in the -111 to -175 line range have gone 53-22 SU for +22.69 units (ROI: 30.3%) in the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-158 vs ATL)
MLB Team Strength Betting System #6:
Having at least 50 games under their belt for the year, interleague plus-money underdogs who have a 10% or higher win percentage than their opponent have gone 52-38 SU for +22.69 units (ROI: 25.2%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+104 at SEA)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 90-72 (+22.11 units, ROI: 13.6%) in their last 162 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-102 vs DET)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 214-164 (+25.51 units, ROI: 6.7%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-105 vs TOR), KANSAS CITY (-102 vs DET)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 267-175 in their last 442 tries (+41.62 units, ROI: 9.4%).
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-147 vs STL)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 166-172 (-77.88 units, ROI: -23%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-253 vs PIT)
Winning Streak Betting System #11:
Teams on 7+ game winning streaks playing against an intraleague opponent with a win percentage within 10% of them have gone 62-23 SU (+26.63 units, ROI: 31.3%) when priced in the -350 to +100 line range since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-147 vs STL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 546-528 for +27.89 units, good for +2.6% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: PITTSBURGH +233 (+40), BALTIMORE +115 (+28), ST LOUIS +137 (+22), SAN FRANCISCO +189 (+20), KANSAS CITY -102 (+14)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SAN DIEGO -135 (+40 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX -109 (+32), SEATTLE -112 (+21), MIAMI -175 (+16), ARIZONA -165 (+15)
If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where on Under projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 116-89 for +16.15 units and an ROI of 7.9%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.6 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: MIN-SD UNDER 8.5 (-0.9)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) ATLANTA (75-54) at (952) MILWAUKEE (80-49)
Trend: Under the total is 29-13-5 (+15.00 units) when ATL is on the road with starter Bryce Elder in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-MIL (o/u at 8)
(953) WASHINGTON (61-69) at (954) MIAMI (65-64)
Trend: WSH is 43-24 (+12.06 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at MIA)
Trend: WSH is 10-27 (-11.68 units) against NL teams with a win pct between 42%-58% with starter Jake Irvin since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+163 at MIA)
(955) ST LOUIS (66-64) at (956) PHILADELPHIA (71-58)
Trend: STL is 50-24 (+15.60 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+1.5 at PHI)
(959) PITTSBURGH (63-67) at (960) LOS ANGELES-NL (78-51)
Trend: Tarik Skubal’s teams are 28-13 (+5.86 units) in his last 41 night game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-253 vs PIT)
(961) TORONTO (63-67) at (962) NEW YORK-AL (73-55)
Trend: Under the total is 15-5-2 (+9.45 units) when Dylan Cease starts as a road underdog since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-NYY (o/u at 6.5)
(963) TAMPA BAY (76-52) at (964) BALTIMORE (62-67)
Trend: Over the total is 15-5-2 (+7.30 units) with starter Shane McClanahan on the road in low total games (o/u <= 8) since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TB-BAL (o/u at 8)
Trend: BAL is 16-5 (+12.00 units) with starter Brandon Young since the start of the 2026 season
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+115 vs TB)
(969) DETROIT (61-67) at (970) KANSAS CITY (56-74)
Trend: KC is 13-4 (+9.12 units) in home divisional games with starter Michael Wacha since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-102 vs DET)
(971) NEW YORK-NL (58-71) at (972) CHICAGO-AL (67-61)
Trend: NYM is 6-9 (-4.09 units) with starter Christian Scott on the road in his career
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (+102 at CWS)
Trend: Under the total is 13-7-1 (+5.65 units) when starter Luis Castillo faces teams with a <= 45% win pct since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-CWS (o/u at 8)
(973) CHICAGO-NL (74-55) at (974) SEATTLE (61-68)
Trend: David Peterson’s teams are 9-13 (-4.88 units) when he starts on the road within line range -129 to +129 since the beginning of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (+104 at SEA)
Trend: Over the total is 19-9-1 (+9.10 units) when CHC is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-SEA (o/u at 7.5)
(975) SAN FRANCISCO (52-76) at (976) BOSTON (69-59)
Trend: SF is 23-43 (-16.95 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+189 at BOS)
(979) MINNESOTA (63-66) at (980) SAN DIEGO (69-60)
Trend: Over the total is 37-20-6 (+15.00 units) in MIN road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-SD (o/u at 8.5)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #19: Toronto at NY Yankees, Fri 8/21-Sun 8/23
Trend: Favorites are just 34-50 (40.5%, -37.19 units) in the last 84 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -44.3%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-105 vs TOR)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): TORONTO (-102 vs NYY), KANSAS CITY (-102 vs DET), CHICAGO CUBS (+104 at SEA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-253 vs PIT)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (+102 at CWS), BOSTON (-204 vs SF), CHICAGO CUBS (+104 at SEA), CLEVELAND (-136 at COL), SAN DIEGO (-135 vs MIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-COL (o/u at 11)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Monday, August 24)
SPONSORED
DOC’S SPORTS AI-v3 NEW UPGRADE IS HERE! The Doc’s Sports AI is now at Version 3, which has produced 89% winners so far in August for +2,670. The Doc’s Sports AI is now up +24,930 all-time since it launched in late 2025, which includes more than +20K so far in 2026 with ZERO LOSING MONTHS! Football is here and there is no better option for text-based release systems directly to your phone than with the Doc’s Sports AI-v3!
You can view all plays so far in 2026 here.
Here is the Best Part – VSiN Exclusive: Take 90% off your first 3-day package with promo code DSAIVSIN90. Sign up here.
