MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, August 23.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
1:35 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Leahy has a 3.24 ERA and 3.53 fielding independent with 0.9 home runs and 2.6 walks per nine innings allowed, but has large home and road splits, with a 2.91 ERA and 0.3 home runs per nine innings allowed at home while supplying a 3.61 road ERA with 1.6 home runs per nine innings allowed. He is supported by a bullpen that is 22nd in ERA at 4.30, but the Cardinals are fourth in road run production with 5.1 runs per game and have to try to get to Phillies starting pitcher Cristopher Sánchez, who owns a 2.52 ERA overall with 0.7 home runs allowed and 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings this season. After supplying a 1.54 ERA through his first 14 starts of the season, Sánchez has a 3.82 ERA with 1.2 home runs per nine innings allowed in his past 12 starts.
Pick: Cardinals vs. Phillies Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
The contact Rays starting pitcher Nick Martinez allows seems to be catching up to him, as he has now allowed at least four runs in three of his past four starts. While his ERA is 3.05, he does have a 4.00 fielding independent with only 5.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Orioles starting pitcher Shane Baz has pitched better than his 4.03 ERA would indicate, as he has a 3.33 fielding independent with only 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed and a 3.34 ERA and 2.76 fielding independent in his past 16 starts, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 14 of those 16 starts.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline +105 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Orioles -106 and Total 8.9
1:40 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins
Nationals starting pitcher Jackson Kent is making his third career start, having allowed eight runs in 7 2/3 innings with eight walks issued while being supported by a bullpen that ranks 27th in ERA at 4.81. Though the Nationals lineup is banged up, the team still leads the league in scoring with over 5.2 runs per game and faces starting pitcher Janson Junk, who pitches to a lot of contact with only 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings and a 4.37 ERA overall. Since July 1, the Marlins are 28th in the league in bullpen ERA at 5.27.
Pick: Nationals vs. Marlins Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.8
4:10 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
While the Diamondbacks are without their leader in home runs, Ketel Marte, they should be able to get to Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott, who has a 4.07 ERA but a higher 4.64 fielding independent with seven strikeouts and 4.3 walks per nine innings, while the Reds bullpen is 25th in ERA at 4.54. Diamondbacks starting pitcher Mitch Bratt has a respectable 4.17 ERA but a 5.38 fielding independent with only 6.1 strikeouts and 5.4 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline -126 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -141 and Total 9.4
Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres
Padres starting pitcher Walker Buehler does own a 4.79 ERA this season, but has a 4.22 fielding independent with only one home run per nine innings allowed and seems to be rounding into form, with three earned runs or fewer allowed in each of his past six starts. He is supported by a Padres lineup that, since the All-Star Break, is averaging nearly 5.2 runs per game after averaging only 3.95 runs per game prior to the All-Star Break, which was last in the league. They face Twins starting pitcher Bailey Ober, who has a 4.65 ERA with 1.5 home runs per nine innings allowed and a career-low 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: Padres Moneyline -135
Greg’s Handicap: Padres -161
Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners
Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga has a 3.77 ERA, but his 4.54 fielding independent with 1.8 home runs per nine innings allowed points toward regression, and he has a 4.65 ERA with over 2.4 home runs per nine innings allowed in his past 16 starts. Mariners starting pitcher Bryce Miller owns a 3.71 ERA and 3.95 fielding independent with 1.5 home runs per nine innings allowed, but also has 8.7 strikeouts and 1.8 walks per nine innings while carrying massive home and road splits, with a 2.09 ERA at home compared to a 4.94 ERA away from home.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline -105
Greg’s Handicap: Mariners -152
7:10 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers
This game is being played in Williamsport, Pennsylvania, as the Little League World Series game, with Tyler Mahle getting the start for the Braves. Mahle has been stellar in three starts since the team acquired him from San Francisco, with three runs allowed across 18 1/3 innings, but still owns a 6.06 ERA in his starts made away from San Francisco this season. The Brewers’ starting pitcher is back in the rotation after coming out of the bullpen in his last appearance and, for the season, has a 3.86 ERA with 8.9 strikeouts and 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed, but has allowed at least three runs in six of his past seven starts. The Braves are eighth in the league in scoring with 4.7 runs per game, while the Brewers are fourth with nearly five runs per game.
Pick: Braves vs. Brewers Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1
