MLB Best Bets Today August 22
The MLB card is full of late games on Saturday, as we have a couple of early starts in the Bronx and in Milwaukee, a matinee in Miami, and then the rest of the slate goes off at 6:05 p.m. ET or later. That’s good for those getting a slow start to their Saturday mornings or those who have some errands to run with the kids heading back to school. Plenty of time to knock out what needs to be done before chilling on the couch for the evening with your drink of choice and the MLB package.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 22:
Athletics vs. Astros Prediction
Pick: Athletics +214
The A’s are heavy underdogs on Saturday against the Astros, which is hardly a surprise given all the injuries that they’ve dealt with recently. Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Jacob Wilson, Tyler Soderstrom, and Brent Rooker are the biggest ones, but there are others, as this team has fallen on the wrong side of fortune. But, they keep battling with what they have and I think they have a shot tonight against Hunter Brown and the AL West-leading Astros.
Brown is not right. This has become a throwaway season for him. He has a 3.67 ERA with a 3.84 xERA and a 4.61 FIP, so the numbers aren’t terrible over 68.2 innings of work, but he’s walked eight batters in his last two starts, has had a single-digit SwStr% in three of his last four starts, and just hasn’t showcased the command and control that we’re used to seeing from him. He made two starts and then missed 2.5 months and I don’t know that he ever really got locked in.
He has done a good job of stranding runners with a 78.4% LOB% and a .241 BABIP against, so the walks haven’t hurt him as badly as they could have, but they are still a red flag for me in terms of his health and performance.
On the other side, Jacob Young has been really good for a while now. He’s allowed 10 runs in his last seven starts with a 39/12 K/BB ratio and has posted a 3.13 ERA with a 2.60 xERA and a 3.46 FIP since the All-Star Break. He actually gave up four runs in three innings in his first appearance, which came as a reliever, so he actually has a 2.36 ERA with a 2.46 xERA and a 3.64 FIP when he’s been the starting pitcher. He hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a start.
The Astros are just 13th in wOBA against LHP in the second half, a surprising number to me, given that they are so right-handed-heavy. For the season, righties have hit Lopez really well, but here in the second half, they’ve posted a .229/.327/.385 slash with a .320 wOBA, so he’s made some nice adjustments as the season has gone along.
The 1st 5 price here is Athletics +175. I’ll take the dice roll with 40 cents better on the full game, as their bullpen is pretty rested.
Cubs vs. Mariners Prediction
Pick: Cubs +104
To say that today is a huge day for the Mariners organization is an understatement, as rookie Kade Anderson makes his MLB debut. The LSU product and third overall pick in 2025 posted video game numbers against Double-A competition this season with 11 runs allowed on 47 hits in 93.1 innings of work with a 135/13 K/BB ratio. That’s a 1.06 ERA with a 40.5% K% and a .147 BA against for those keeping track.
But, it’s a big leap to the big leagues and especially against the league’s best offense against lefties in the second half. Since the Midsummer Classic, the Cubs are slashing .296/.364/.527 with a .384 wOBA and a 145 wRC+. If Anderson is good, so be it, but he won’t be facing Double-A hitters that he can overpower anymore.
It’ll be something of a Johnny Wholestaff approach in all likelihood for the Cubs, as David Peterson is listed as the starter and will factor in, but we’ll see how long he goes. Peterson has a 4.06 ERA with a 5.02 xERA and a 4.26 FIP over 44.1 innings with the Cubs, but he did have a 10-run disaster against the Cardinals on July 3, which accounts for half of the earned runs he has allowed with Chicago. So, in his other seven starts and one relief outing, he’s allowed a total of 10 earned runs. The peripherals are a little bit shaky, but the Mariners are just 21st in wOBA at .293 against lefties in the second half.
The Mariners bullpen has also had some work recently. Andres Munoz blew yesterday’s save. Eduard Bazardo, Gabe Speier, Seranthony Dominguez, and Munoz have worked two of the last three days and Jose Ferrer worked back-to-back days on Wednesday and Thursday. The Cubs don’t have a single reliever who has worked more than once over the last three days, plus they just got Daniel Palencia back off the IL.
This may very well be the start to a great MLB career for Anderson, but I’ll pay to see it and like the situation for the Cubs bullpen better.
Guardians vs. Rockies Prediction
Pick: Over 11 (-103)
Tanner Bibee and Gabriel Hughes are the slated starters here for a 6:10 p.m. MT start in Denver. I’m not a big Bibee backer and I don’t like what the Guardians have opted to do with him. He’s pitching to more contact these days with a 19.1% K% and he’s allowed the highest Hard Hit% and highest Barrel% of his career. He has a 4.01 ERA with a 4.32 xERA and a 4.65 FIP, as he’s also seen a spike in his HR/FB% while being more of a fly ball pitcher. Normally the increased sample size of fly balls helps to lower a HR/FB%, but he’s allowed 25 HR in 150.1 innings, just two off his career-high set last season in 182.1 innings.
Historically, Bibee has been tremendous at home with a 3.43 ERA and a .286 wOBA over 330.1 career innings. He has a 3.99 ERA with a .317 wOBA on the road, including more than a 50-point spike in SLG. With more fly balls in the profile, that is concerning at Coors Field, where the ball carries well and the spacious outfield dimensions make things harder to cover.
Cleveland scored nine runs yesterday and something similar would help today, as they draw Hughes, a rookie right-hander out of Gonzaga. He has a 6.69 ERA with a 3.43 xERA and a 3.56 FIP over his 37.2 innings of work. Lefties have a .286/.343/.429 slash against him with a .337 wOBA and he’ll face a bunch of those from Cleveland today. Also, it’s rather incredible that he has allowed 20 runs in 19 innings on the road, but has somehow been significantly better in a more adverse pitching environment.
It’ll be a good night to hit with a bit of a helping breeze to the pull side for lefties – a positive for both lineups – and a first-pitch temp around 80. Neither bullpen strikes me as being great right now either.
