Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, August 23, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Teams on 5+ game winning streaks playing as non-divisional large home favorites (-260 or more) have had their totals go Over at a 25-8-2 (75.8%) rate since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): PIT-LAD (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: PHI is 31-2 (+27.13 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 win pct with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-207 vs STL)
Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 415-469 but for +90.08 units and an ROI of 10.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+125 at NYY), WASHINGTON (+143 at MIA), ATHLETICS (+159 at HOU), LA ANGELS (+143 at TEX)
When two teams with >=0.55% win pct meet in a night game to close out a series, Under the total is 71-50-6 (58.7%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-MIL (o/u at 7.5)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 55-48 for -8.71 units for an ROI of -8.5%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-207 vs STL)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 77-117 for -43.54 units and an ROI of -22.4%! Fading these teams continues to produce and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-171 vs ATH)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 131-191 start for -20.89 after losing about 31 units over the last nine-and-a-half weeks. This angle has finally gone deep into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+143 at MIA)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 77-45 for -22.77 units, ROI -18.7%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-207 vs STL), LA DODGERS (-271 vs PIT), BOSTON (-206 vs SF)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 266-324 for -23.43 units, but it has taken a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 75-77, +10.76 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-104 at BAL), LA ANGELS (+143 at TEX), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-104 vs NYM)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 222-142 for +53.93 units, an ROI of +14.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-123 vs ATL), DETROIT (-111 at KC), CHICAGO CUBS (-113 at SEA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 157-199 start for -35.79 units (ROI -10.1%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 70-92 for -21.69 units and a solid ROI of -13.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – BALTIMORE (-104 vs TB), SEATTLE (+105 vs CHC)
3+ games – KANSAS CITY (+103 vs DET)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 135-153 for +2.59 units. However, it has lost -10.71 units over the last month and a half.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+143 at MIA), COLORADO (+152 vs CLE), SAN FRANCISCO (+191 at BOS)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 474-496 but for +33.75 units and an ROI of 3.5% since the start of the 2022 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-105 at BAL), WASHINGTON (+143 at MIA), DETROIT (-111 at KC), COLORADO (+152 vs CLE), SAN FRANCISCO (+191 at BOS), CHICAGO CUBS (-113 at SEA)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 415-469 but for +90.08 units and an ROI of 10.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+125 at NYY), WASHINGTON (+143 at MIA), ATHLETICS (+159 at HOU), LA ANGELS (+143 at TEX)
*WATCH FOR SAN FRANCISCO at BOS (+191 CURRENTLY)*
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,203-2,082 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -270.35 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-207 vs STL), NY METS (-105 at CWS), CINCINNATI (+120 at AZ)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,268-2,849 (44.3%) for -263.34 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+143 at MIA), TAMPA BAY (-105 at BAL), DETROIT (-111 at KC), SAN FRANCISCO (+191 at BOS)
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 676-566 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +18.30 units, for an ROI of 1.5%.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-154 vs LAA)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 358-318 (53%) for +23.06 units and an ROI of 3.4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-103 vs NYM), ARIZONA (-129 vs CIN)
Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 175-95 SU (+42.11 units, ROI: 15.6%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-105 at BAL), HOUSTON (-171 vs ATH)
Big underdogs after heartbreak fall flat
Heavy underdogs of +210 or more who lost their last game by only one run have gone 43-145 SU for -43.45 units (ROI: -23.1%) in the follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+249 at LAD)
When these teams are +220 or more, Under the total is 97-60-7 (61.8%) in their next game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-LAD (o/u at 8.5)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #2:
When two teams with >=0.55% win pct meet in a night game to close out a series, Under the total is 71-50-6 (58.7%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-MIL (o/u at 7.5)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 332-340 run (+15.10 units, ROI: 2.2%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): DETROIT (-111 at KC)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 91-72 (+23.11 units, ROI: 14.2%) in their last 163 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+103 vs DET)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 215-165 (+25.50 units, ROI: 6.7%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+103 vs DET)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 268-175 in their last 443 tries (+42.62 units, ROI: 9.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-207 vs STL), LA DODGERS (-271 vs PIT)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Teams on 5+ game winning streaks playing as non-divisional large home favorites (-260 or more) have had their totals go Over at a 25-8-2 (75.8%) rate since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): PIT-LAD (o/u at 8.5)
Winning Streak Betting System #7:
Teams on 5+ game winning streaks playing as non-divisional large home favorites (-230 or more) have gone 51-13 SU (+17.17 units, ROI: 26.8%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-271 vs PIT)
Winning Streak Betting System #11:
Teams on 7+ game winning streaks playing against an intraleague opponent with a win percentage within 10% of them have gone 63-23 SU (+27.63 units, ROI: 32.1%) when priced in the -350 to +100 line range since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-207 vs STL)
*WATCH FOR KANSAS CITY vs DET (+103 CURRENTLY)*
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 551-531 for +31.17 units, good for +3.5% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: PITTSBURGH +249 (+60 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX -104 (+43), SEATTLE +105 (+29), COLORADO +152 (+22), LA ANGELS +143 (+12), SAN FRANCISCO +191 (+11)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: HOUSTON -171 (+34 diff), SAN DIEGO -136 (+21), MIAMI -154 (+14), NY YANKEES -129 (+13), ARIZONA -129 (+11)
Theoretically, the best “edges” come up when a score projection comes up with a full 1.0 run edge on either the Over or Under. On Under projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Unders are 29-11 for +16.1 units and an ROI of 40.3%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (1.0 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CLE-COL UNDER 11.5 (-1.2), MIN-SD UNDER 9 (-1.0)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) ST LOUIS (66-65) at (902) PHILADELPHIA (72-58)
Trend: STL is 50-25 (+14.03 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+1.5 at PHI)
Trend: PHI is 31-2 (+27.13 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 win pct with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-207 vs STL)
(903) WASHINGTON (61-70) at (904) MIAMI (66-64)
Trend: WSH is 43-25 (+10.69 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at MIA)
(905) PITTSBURGH (63-68) at (906) LOS ANGELES-NL (79-51)
Trend: PIT is 34-22 (+11.20 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+1.5 at LAD)
(911) TAMPA BAY (76-53) at (912) BALTIMORE (63-67)
Trend: UNDER the total is 32-17-3 (+13.10 units) when starter Nick Martinez is in higher total games (o/u >= 8.5) since the start of the 2022 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-BAL (o/u at 9)
(913) TORONTO (64-67) at (914) NEW YORK-AL (73-56)
Trend: Jose Soriano’s teams are 15-7 (+10.21 units) in his last 22 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+125 at NYY)
(915) DETROIT (61-68) at (916) KANSAS CITY (57-74)
Trend: Under the total is 39-27-4 (+9.30 units) when KC is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-KC (o/u at 8.5)
(917) ATHLETICS (50-80) at (918) HOUSTON (65-65)
Trend: HOU is 18-7 (+9.53 units) during the day with Cristian Javier in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-171 vs ATH)
(919) LOS ANGELES-AL (52-78) at (920) TEXAS (64-66)
Trend: Yusei Kikuchi’s teams are 17-13 (+10.89 units) when he starts as a day game underdog of +105 or more in career
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+143 at TEX)
(923) SAN FRANCISCO (52-77) at (924) BOSTON (70-59)
Trend: SF is 23-44 (-17.95 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+191 at BOS)
(927) MINNESOTA (63-67) at (928) SAN DIEGO (70-60)
Trend: Over the total is 38-20-6 (+16.00 units) in MIN road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-SD (o/u at 9)
Trend: Walker Buehler’s teams are 26-10 (+14.75 units) when he starts vs AL opponents since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-136 vs MIN)
(929) CHICAGO-NL (74-56) at (930) SEATTLE (62-68)
Trend: CHC is 41-19 (+13.36 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-113 at SEA)
Trend: SEA is 9-2 (+7.36 units) with starter Bryce Miller at home vs NL opponents in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+105 vs CHC)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #19: Toronto at NY Yankees, Fri 8/21-Sun 8/23
Trend: Favorites are just 35-50 (41.2%, -36.19 units) in the last 85 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -42.6%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-134 vs TOR)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): ST LOUIS (+200 at PHI), ATHLETICS (+159 at HOU)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-271 vs PIT)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-105 at CWS), CLEVELAND (-163 at COL), BOSTON (-206 vs SF), CHICAGO CUBS (-113 at SEA), SAN DIEGO (-136 vs MIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATH-HOU (o/u at 9)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple tomorrow, August 24)
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