Sunday Night MLB: Braves vs. Brewers
The Braves vs. Brewers series started with Chris Sale vs. Jacob Misiorowski. It will end tonight on Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN with the Little League Classic. Tyler Mahle and Shane Drohan are the listed starters for the game in Williamsport at Bowman Field. The total of 7.5 is worth discussing further, as the ballpark has pretty normal dimensions, with left field 323 feet away, right field 331 feet, and it’s 411 feet to dead center. The Williamsport Crosscutters of the NYPL play here. The Little League Classic began in 2017 and neither one of these teams has played here.
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How to Watch Braves vs. Brewers
Where: ESPN
When: Sunday August 23, 7:00 p.m. ET
Braves vs. Brewers MLB Odds
Milwaukee Brewers -113 // Atlanta Braves +105
Total: 7.5 (-113/-106)
Braves vs. Brewers Prediction
Pick: Over 7.5 (-110)
A crowd of about 2,500 spectators will be on hand for tonight’s matchup, as the attendees are made up players and families at the Little League World Series. The weather looks great in PA for tonight’s tilt with a temperature in the mid-60s and a very slight chance of showers, less than 15%. The two teams did play yesterday in Milwaukee, so unlike the Field of Dreams Game earlier this month, there was no travel day built in.
Mahle, acquired at the Trade Deadline from the Giants, has made three starts with the Braves and he’s been sensational with a 1.45 ERA and a 2.92 FIP. He has given up a lot of fly balls and five Barrels, so his xERA suggests some tough sledding ahead. He’s actually allowed a Hard Hit% in the 45% range as well, so he’s had good fortunes on batted balls, but the looks of his base numbers seem to be a bit deceiving.
Drohan has been another terrific find by the Brewers organization. The longtime Sox farmhand, both for the Red Sox and the White Sox, has a 3.86 ERA with a 3.62 xERA and a 3.35 FIP over 100.1 innings of work. He’s made 14 starts and 11 relief appearances. As a starter, he does have a 4.64 ERA over 73.2 innings, so his work as a reliever has definitely aided his full-season numbers.
Drohan’s last appearance was in relief, as he threw two shutout innings against the Mariners on August 18. Prior to that, he had allowed 3+ runs in four of his last five starts, so it looks like Milwaukee has given him a bit of a reset. Since the All-Star Break, he is running a 5.64 ERA over 30.1 innings, as he’s had difficulty stranding runners and has seen his BB% spike from 6.8% to 10.1%.
The Braves have a top-10 offense against lefties in the month of August with a .328 wOBA and a 107 wRC+. They are slashing .256/.301/.463 in that split, as power production has carried them. They only have a 6.4% BB%, so we’ll see if they can take advantage of Drohan’s recent wildness and improve upon that number.
The Brewers are a below average unit against righties this month, slashing just .244/.334/.355, as a power outage has pulled down their offensive profile. They’re still drawing a lot of walks, but Mahle is a pretty stingy guy with free passes, allowing an 8.5% BB% this season.
Braves vs. Brewers Prediction
Still, I like the Over 7.5 in this game. It’s a different venue and a different setting for all involved, so that could be unique, especially for outfielders playing caroms or going back on fly balls. But, Drohan’s recent control issues coupled with all of the hard contact that Mahle has allowed have me thinking these two offenses can put some runs on the board.
Braves vs. Brewers Player Props
Ozzie Albies (ATL) Over 1.5 Total Bases (+142)
Albies is having a fine season against southpaws, slashing .286/.311/.468. He’s hit eight homers in that split and only 10.5% of his plate appearances end in a strikeout or walk, so he’s looking to hit his way aboard. Albies also has 13 of his 23 doubles against lefties, despite 116 fewer plate appearances in that split, so he’s definitely been a very useful hitter when facing guys who throw left-handed.
