Today we wrap up the weekend with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:10 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (-110, 8.5) at Kansas City Royals
The Royals (57-74) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 5-2 as a -115 home favorite and winning again yesterday 3-1 as a -110 home pick’em.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Tigers (61-68) start righty Jacob Waguespack (1-1, 1.95 ERA) and the Royals tap lefty Daniel Lynch (4-4. 2.83 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with some shops opening Kansas City a slight -115 home favorite and Detroit a -105 road dog.
Sharps have sided with the Tigers to earn a win and avoid the sweep, pushing Detroit up to -110 or even a slight -115 road favorite across the market.
At DraftKings, Detroit is taking in 55% of moneyline bets and 72% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Tigers are only receiving 22% of moneyline bets and a whopping 86% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the road team, especially the wiseguys in Vegas.
Lynch has posted a 7.00 ERA in four August appearances, allowing 7 earned runs in 9 innings pitched.
Detroit has the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.78 (8th) compared to 5.19 for Kansas City (29th).
4:10 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (-115, 7.5) at Seattle Mariners
The Mariners (62-68) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 6-5 in extra innings as a -110 home pick’em and winning again yesterday 5-4 as a -120 home favorite.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Cubs (74-56) hand the ball to lefty Shota Imanaga (8-9, 3.77 ERA) and the Mariners counter with righty Bryce Miller (4-7, 3.71 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Cubs to earn a road victory and avoid the sweep, as Chicago has crept up from a -110 road pick’em to a -115 or even -120 road favorite.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are receiving 75% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Chicago has taken in 80% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the road team.
Chicago has the better bats, hitting .248 with a .337 OBP and 665 runs scored compared to Seattle hitting .230 with a .309 OBP and 510 runs scored.
The Cubs are hitting .245 on the road (9th best in MLB) while the Mariners are hitting .222 at home (29th) and only .215 against lefties (30th).
The Cubs are 5-1 in Imanaga’s last six starts.
On the other hand, Seattle is 0-7 in Miller’s last seven starts. Miller has posted an 8.04 ERA in three August starts, allowing 14 earned runs in 15.2 innings pitched.
7 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers (-125, 7.5)
This neutral site Little League Classic matchup will be played in Williamsport, Pennsylvania.
The Brewers (81-49) have taken the first two games on this three-game series, winning the opener 2-1 as -140 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 4-1 as -155 home favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Braves (75-55) tap righty Tyler Mahle (4-10, 4.53 ERA) and the Brewers rebuttal with lefty Shane Drohan (6-4, 3.86 ERA).
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -120 neutral site favorite and Atlanta a +100 neutral site dog.
Sharps have quietly laid the chalk with the Brewers to earn a win and complete the sweep, pushing Milwaukee up from -120 to -125.
At DraftKings, the Brewers are taking in notable run-line action (-1.5 at +165), receiving 38% of spread bets and a hefty 74% of spread dollars.
Milwaukee has the better bats, hitting .253 with a .337 OBP and 648 runs scored compared to Atlanta hitting .246 with a .310 OBP and 610 runs scored.
The Brewers offer correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
